Alleged CRU Emails - 25 results below

Original Filename: 835819980.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: km_king@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
To: F028@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: URGENT RESPONSE NEEDED - Early Detection Work
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 1996 16:xxx xxxx xxxx(PDT)

Dr. Jones,

I am contacting you on behalf of Dave Bader and Tim Barnett regarding a couple
action items in support of early detection on climate change. Based upon the
anticipated award for NOAA support during fiscal year 1997 on climate change
data and detection, DOE has authorized the Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory (PNNL) to utilize existing funding through 9/30/96 to conduct a
meeting of the experts, and to begin preliminary investigations.

PNNL would like to place a contract with you as soon as possible to provide
support through 9/30/96. In order to place a contract with you, I need to
submit a statement of work and signed cost proposal to our Contracts
Department. If you could please fax this to me as soon as possible on (509)
xxx xxxx xxxx, it would be greatly appreciated.

I thought your activity my look something like the following (feel free to
change/edit):

Scope of Work

Dr. Phillip Jones shall begin initial work in support of the pilot project
identified in the Early Detection of Climate Trends report. He shall prepare
for and participate in a meeting on greenhouse signal detection, to be held in
Washington, DC on September 17-18, 1996. In addition, Dr. Jones shall conduct
a preliminary analysis ?????? (please provide input)


Deliverables

Prepare for and participate in 9/17-18, 1996 meetings on greenhouse signal.

Provide a summary report on the preliminary analysis of ?????? on or
before September 30, 1996.


Also, for your information the current plan for the meeting is for September 17-
18, 1996 at the Courtyard by Marriott - Greenbelt, 6301 Golden Triangle Drive,
Greenbelt, MD. (3xxx xxxx xxxx, fax: (3xxx xxxx xxxx. Government room rate is
$89/day.


When you provide your cost estimate, it would be appreciated if you could
provide your hourly rate, in addition to travel estimates for the September
meeting. To expedite the process, it is very helpful if can include
documentation to support your hourly rate.

Please feel free to contact me with any questions. My phone number is xxx xxxx xxxx
2861, fax is xxx xxxx xxxx.

Thank you,

Karen

Original Filename: 839635440.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: John Daly <daly@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: n.nicholls@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: Climatic warming in Tasmania
Date: Fri, 09 Aug 1996 20:04:00 +1100
Cc: Ed Cook <drdendro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, NNU-NB@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Mike Barbetti <mikeb@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, zetterberg@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rjf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Dear Neville,

You mentioned to me some time ago that in your view, the 11-year solar cycle
did not influence temperature. There have been numerous attempts by
academics to establish a correlation, but each has been shot down on some
ground or other. I remember Barrie Pittock was especially dismissive of
attempts to correlate solar cycle with temperature.

Have you tried this approach?

Load "Mathematica" into your PC and run the following set of instructions -

data = ReadList[ "c:sydney.txt", Number]
dataElements = Length[data]
X = ListPlot[ data, PlotJoined-> True];
fourierTrans = Fourier[data];
ListPlot[Abs[fourierTrans], PlotJoined -> True];

fitfun1 = Fit[data,{1,x,x^2,x^3,Sin[11 2 Pi x/dataElements],
Cos[11 2 Pi x/dataElements]},x];
fittable = Table[N[fitfun1], {x, dataElements}];
Y = ListPlot[fittable, PlotJoined -> True];
Show[X, Y]

The reference to "c:sydney.txt" is a suggested pathname for the following
set of data - which is Sydney's annual mean temperature.

16.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.4
17.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.1
16.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.4
17.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.5
17.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.4
17.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.8
18.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.4
17.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.xxx xxxx xxxx.1
18.6

So Far so good.

"Mathematica" first plots out the data itself (see Atachment 1)

The first part of the instruction set lets "mathematica" do a Fourier Transform
on the data, ie. searching out the periodicities, if there are any. The result is
shown on Attachment 2.

The transform result shows a sharp spike at the 11 year point (I wonder
what is significant about 11 years?). The second part of the instructions
now acts upon this observed spike (the Cos 11 bit), to extract it's
waveform from the rest of the noise. The result is shown as a waveform
in attachment 3, the waves having an 11-year period, with the long-term
Sydney warming easily evident.

Attachment 4 shows the original Sydney data overlaid against the 11-year
periodicity.

It would appear that the solar cycle does indeed affect temperature.

(I tried the same run on the CRU global temperature set. Even though CRU
must be highly smoothed by the time all the averages are worked out, the
11-year pulse is still there, albeit about half the size of Sydneys).

Stay cool.

John Daly http://www.vision.net.au/~daly

Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSydney.gif

Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachFourier.gif

Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSolar1.gif

Attachment Converted: c:eudoraattachSolar2.gif

Original Filename: 839858862.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: dgm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: Your help, please?
Date: Mon, 12 Aug 1996 10:07:xxx xxxx xxxx(MDT)
Cc: trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, boville@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, branst@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kiehl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, francisb@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rjcicero@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, covey@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tom@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, curry@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pdadd@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gates5@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, graumlich@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dennis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, barafu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tkarl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lindzen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, liu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, sloman@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rcm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, meehl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, berrien@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dickm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, neelin@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, newell@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, north@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, obrien@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, peltier@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rtp1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ram@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, randall@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, erasmu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, cddhr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, alan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, njrosenberg@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, sarachik@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, schlesin@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, schneide@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, shukla@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, esmith@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rsomervi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, turco@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, waliser@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wallace@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, walsh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wang@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, "P.D. Jones" <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, drdendro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Tim Barnett <tbarnett@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, jfein@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Ben Santer <bsanter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, dgm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Dear Doug,

In response to Jay Fein's e-mail re den-cen, here are some points (which
may merely echo where you are already).

(1) Why study den-cen? Reason is: improve understanding of climate
system to aid in detection and prediction. You should read Ch. 8
(detection) of IPCC WGI SAR in this regard.

(2) How to study den-cen? Models and observed data are equally
important. Models (coupled O/AGCMs) can only give the internal component
of variability, instrumental and paleodata give internal-plus-external.

(3) How useful are paleodata? I support the continued collection of
such data, but I am disturbed by how some people in the paleo community
try to oversell their product. A specific example is the ice core
isotope record, which correlates very poorly with temperature on the
annual to decadal timescale (and possibly also on the century
timescale)---question, how do we ever demonstrate the usefulness or
otherwise of ice core isotopes on this timescale?

There are other well known proxy data issues that need careful thought...

(a) Sedimentary records---dating. Are 14C-dated records of any value at
all (unless wiggle matched)?

(b) Seasonal specificity---how useful is a proxy record that tells us
about a single season (or only part of the year)?

(c) Climate variance explained by the proxy variable--close to zero for
ice core isotopes, up to 50% for tree rings, somewhere in between for
most other indicators. How valuable are such partially explained records
in helping explain the past?

(d) Signal-to-noise problems---a key issue is, what role has external
forcing had on climate over the past 10,000 years. There is a tendency
to interpret observed changes as evidence of external forcing---usually
unjustifiably. Few workers in the area realize that paleo interpretation
has a detection aspect, just like interpreting the past 100+ years---only
much more difficult. More work is needed on this.

(e) Frequency dependence of explained variance---the classic example
here is tree rings, where it is exceedingly difficult to get out a
credible low frequency (50+ year time scale) message. Work in this area
could reap useful rewards.

(f) Coverage---what about den-cen data from the oceans? We need much
more of this, especially in regions that might provide insights into
mechanisms (like NADW changes).

(4) Causes. Here, ice cores are more valuable (CO2, CH4 and volcanic
aerosol changes). But the main external candidate is solar, and more
work is required to improve the "paleo" solar forcing record and to
understand how the climate system responds both globally and regionally
to solar forcing.

I hope these very hasty ramblings are helpful

Cheers,
Tom

P.S. I've added Ben Santer, Tim Barnett, Ed Cook, Keith Briffa, Malcolm
Hughes, Ray Bradley and Phil Jones to your mailing list.


On Thu, 8 Aug 1996, it was written:

> Dear Colleague:
>
> Doug Martinson is the Chair of the NAS, Climate Research
> Committee's Dec-Cen panel. He and his Panelists are drafting a
> Decadal-Century Climate Variability Science Plan (a US CLIVAR
> contribution). Doug and his Panel are trying to get the broadest
> possible scientific input for this Plan. Doug's approach is one
> that I strongly endorse. In this reagrd he asked me to solicite
> your comments on highest priority science questions and asks also
> for some help regarding examples of published work that would be
> useful for the Plan.
>
> I know you are busy, but urge you to think about this and comment.
> Doug's committee meet in mid-September, so to be of most use to
> him, your comments should be received by the end of August.
>
> Please email to Doug with a cc to me.
>
> Doug Martinson: dgm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
> Jay Fein: jfein@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>
> Thanks very much. Jay
>

Original Filename: 841418825.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Jean-Claude.Duplessy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx (Jean-Claude Duplessy)
Subject: Re:
Date: Fri Aug 30 11:27:xxx xxxx xxxx

At 13:52 27/08/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:
>Dear Keith,
>
> I have been asked to write a white paper on the possibility for the
>paleo community to interact with CLIVAR.
>
> Evidently part of the jow has been made during the Venice meeting,
>but I would like to know if you have somme recent recent work of yours that
>I could include in this paper.
>
> Any suggestion woulmd be welcome.
>
>Best regards
>
>jean claude
>
Dear Jean-Claude

It is good news indeed that these initiatives are now meaningfully
underway to join the palaeo , pure climate , and modelling communities.
I will join the short CLIVAR/PAGES meeting (24/25 Oct.) and a colleague -
Tim Osborn will attend the larger meeting from Oct.28-Nov.1. As for question
about new results , Ed Cook and I have a paper in press describing an
initial attempt to reconstruct a North Atlantic Oscillation index back into
the 1700s using tree-ring chronologies in Europe and North America. I will
have a copy sent to you. Otherwise we have a paper soon to come out in an
American book describing our early analyses of the growing Russian data.
This work, developing the density network is progressing well and we have
some very good reconstructions of growing season degree days- excellent
spatial maps over western siberia going back several hundred years.
We recently published a paper in Nature describing a 1000-year summer
temperature reconstruction in the northern Urals and a brief but interesting
paper demonstrating a strong volcanic influence in the tree-ring density
data when they show extreme low density over large areas. We have very
interesting developments from these areas of work but they are only now
being written up.
The usefull thing to stress is that these researches are in progress
and the development of the tree-ring network is continuing well and is already
providing patterns of past climate variability in northern Europe/Russia
and at a number of special locations- nortern Sweden/Finland, Yamal, and
Taimyr we have already got continuous 2000-year chronologies and have the
potential (indeed we already are) to build xxx xxxx xxxxyear series at ech location.
I will send you some reprints/preprints and an overhead that shows
the present state of the northern chronology network. Any stress on the
importance of future collaboration btween us and the Russians would be wellcome.
I have just heard that a proposal I submitted to Copernicus to do just this
was to my amazement ruled not relevant to the programme!

I look forward to seeing you in October. Very best wishes. Needless to say, if I can offer any help with drafting the white paper or similar
I am happy to oblige.
cheers
Keith

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From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Gary Funkhouser <gary@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: russian data
Date: Tue Sep 17 16:42:xxx xxxx xxxx


Gary,
it's great to hear from you. The stuff you are doing is very interesting
to say the least. From the details you give the precip. stuff looks the more
relevant for the Holocene though I note that you don't have a manuscript
yet. The other stuff is of course interesting but I would have to see it
and the board would want the larger implications of the stats clearly
phrased in general and widely understandable ( by the ignorant masses) terms
before they would consider it not too specialised. I suspect that this
might not be straight forward. Are you not being (in the time honoured Don
Graybill fashion) too demanding of the response function results when you
say deriving a transfer function is not justified? We all strive for
perfection but does it exist? Seriously , it would be easier as regards
publication policy to get the Editor to accept a reconstruction/reconstruction
based paper than one describing chronology inferences.
I don't know whether this is any use but I hope you'll send us something.
I also hope life going O.K. for you these days. I can't see me getting to
Tucson for some considerable time and I don't suppose you have any plans
for cruising this way so I'll see you when I see you.
keep in touch and let me know what you you decide.
the best to you
Keith




At 16:44 11/09/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:
>Keith,
>How's it going?
>
>I've been working on some of the data that Don collected with
>Shiyatov, Mazepa and Vaganov in the late 80's and I was wondering
>if you thought any of it might be appropriate for The Holocene - or
>if you have any ideas about where we could go with it.
>
>I already have a fair draft dealing with the Kyrgyzstan juniper
>chronologies. Although I wasn't able to get any climatic
>reconstructions out of it, the material has some interesting
>properties similar to some of our long-lived trees in the southwest
>US. For example, autocorrelation in the series increases as a direct
>function of stand elevation, there is a shift from high to low
>frequency variation with increasing elevation, and the
>intercorrelation among the highest elevation stands is greater
>than that for the lower stands.
>
>Maybe this means that the lower altitude sites are responding
>to more local conditions (precipitation), while the higher stands
>are responding to a more regional (temperature) signal. Response
>function analyses with the indices may suggest this, but again,
>it's not strong enough to justify developing a transfer function.
>
>The draft is about 2500 words plus figures and tables. Stepan hasn't
>seen it yet, but I can't imagine that he will change it very much -
>I know that Valeri didn't find any great climate responses either.
>
>There are also 12 chronologies from central and southern Siberia, some
>which are pretty close to Jacoby's Mongolian sites. I was able to
>build 3 precipitation reconstructions - one has about 50% explained
>variance for a May - June season. I haven't composed a draft yet and
>although Gordon's dealing with temperature, a couple of the
>chronologies are of comparable length and I want to look at our
>low frequency variation relative to his.
>
>Jeff Dean and I are headed to the White Mountains this Friday for
>a little 5-day collection trip. Thanks for your time, Keith.
>
>Cheers, Gary
>Gary Funkhouser
>Lab. of Tree-Ring Research
>The University of Arizona
>Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA
>phone: (5xxx xxxx xxxx
>fax: (5xxx xxxx xxxx
>e-mail: gary@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>

Original Filename: 843161829.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Gary Funkhouser <gary@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: kyrgyzstan and siberian data
Date: Thu, 19 Sep 1996 15:37:xxx xxxx xxxx

Keith,

Thanks for your consideration. Once I get a draft of the central
and southern siberian data and talk to Stepan and Eugene I'll send
it to you.

I really wish I could be more positive about the Kyrgyzstan material,
but I swear I pulled every trick out of my sleeve trying to milk
something out of that. It was pretty funny though - I told Malcolm
what you said about my possibly being too Graybill-like in evaluating
the response functions - he laughed and said that's what he thought
at first also. The data's tempting but there's too much variation
even within stands. I don't think it'd be productive to try and juggle
the chronology statistics any more than I already have - they just
are what they are (that does sound Graybillian). I think I'll have
to look for an option where I can let this little story go as it is.

Not having seen the sites I can only speculate, but I'd be
optimistic if someone could get back there and spend more time
collecting samples, particularly at the upper elevations.

Yeah, I doubt I'll be over your way anytime soon. Too bad, I'd like
to get together with you and Ed for a beer or two. Probably
someday though.

Cheers, Gary
Gary Funkhouser
Lab. of Tree-Ring Research
The University of Arizona
Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA
phone: (5xxx xxxx xxxx
fax: (5xxx xxxx xxxx
e-mail: gary@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Original Filename: 844968241.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Rashit
Date: Thu, 10 Oct 96 13:24:01 +0500

Dear Keith,
enclosed are data concerning Yamal chronology.
1 - list of samples: 139 subfossil samples (checked only),
covered time span from about 350 BC and 18 samples from living
trees (jah- from Yada river, m- and x- Hadyta river, por- from
Portsa river);
2 - general chronology (1248 BC - 1994 AD). I have some little
doubt about 360 BC - may be it is false. It was found that
in chronology I sent you before 155 BC was false ring;
3 - ring widths of living trees from Yada and Hadyta;
4 - ring widths of living trees from Portsa. Some of them didn't
include in chronology, because were not measured at that time;
5 - ring widths of subfossil trees. Zero means that ring didn't
find on sample.
I don't send description of collection sites, deposits and etc.
for the present. Some details you can find in our article
(Shiyatov,...., Loosli). By the way, do you know something about
its fate?
Please, inform me if you have any questions about these data.
Sincerely yours,
Rashit Hantemirov

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From: Fred Pearce <100713.1311@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: keith briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: new sciwentist feature
Date: 13 Oct 96 10:32:49 EDT

Keith,

This is my first draft of the dendrochronology feature. I wonder if you have time to go through look. I hope you recognise the quotes, but please makes changes if they think they misrepresent you. And if you can answer any of the questions in square brackets that would be most useful.

Ideally, can you not change the full text but make notes, remarks, answers referring to it.

As ever, haste is of the essence.

Regards

--Fred Pearce

It was one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears. Mount Changbai [correct?] in China blasted 50 cubic kilometres of rock into the air and deluged much of the far east with hot pumice. Radiocarbon dated the explosion at early in the 11th century. But it took Keith Briffa, sitting in his office in Norwich and juggling data from tree rings round the world, to pinpoint the precise year: 1032.

Volcanoes scatter the atmosphere with dust that deflects sunlight and cools the world beneath for a year or more. And when the world cools, trees grow less. That year's growth rings are smaller and less dense.

By analysing those rings, Briffa and his colleagues at the Climatic Research Unit in the University of East Anglia have charted these sudden and dramatic shocks to the climate system, from Changbai to Pinatubo in 1991. Larches in the forests of the northern Urals, for instance, have revealed that 1032 was the coldest summer there in a thousand years, more than 6 degrees cooler than the long-term average. Four of the five coldest summers in Europe and North America during the past four centuries (1601, 1641, 1669, and 1912) coincided with known major volcanic events. "We are pretty certain the fifth one, in 1699, did too," says Briffa. "But the geologists haven't found the volcano yet."

It is clever work. But the science of tree-ring analysis, dendrochronology, is more than just a party piece for botanists. Every ring in every tree round the world contains a memory of the climate the year it was formed. Reading these rings holds the potential, Briffa believes, to answer one of the most vital questions of our time: has human activity started to warm the planet?

With colleagues in laboratories and field stations from Dublin to eastern Siberia, he has within the past year [correct?] begun an attempt to construct a history, year by year, of temperatures across northern Europe and Asia over the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears, right back to the waning of the last ice age. The tam, funded by the European Union, hope to help show whether the warming seen across the planet in the past century, and especially since around 1980, is within the limits of normal natural variability, or the start of man-made global warming.

For climatologists, the search for an irrefutable "sign" of anthropogenic warming has assumed an almost Biblical intensity. The leading figures of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), claim that, in all probability, they have seen it. Last summer [ed: 1996], the IPCC's scientific working group, chaired by former UK Meteorological Office boss Sir John Houghton, concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate". But it is like the "balance of evidence" suggesting BSE causes CJD. The judgment is far from "beyond reasonable doubt". The case remains "not proven".

Many researchers most intimately involved in the search are still far from sure how the probabilities balance. And some of the sharpest concerns are coming from the places where the original early warnings of global warming emerged in the mid-1980s. Places such as Briffa's base at the Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California.

Few investigators doubt that the world has warmed recently. Nor that the enhanced "greenhouse effect" of pollution from gases such as carbon dioxide, will warm the planet. But in the past five years, climate researchers have growing increasingly aware of how little they really know about the natural variability from which they must pick out the "signal" of human influence.

One prominent IPCC researcher concerned about this gap in knowledge is Simon Tett from the Hadley Centre for climate modelling at the Meteorological Office, home to one of the world's five leading global circulation models, capable of recreating a mathematical version of how the atmosphere works and of running simulations of climatic changes over decades or even centuries. He says that "in the past, our estimates of natural variability have been based on climate models." But this autumn [date?], he says, those estimates have been thrown into turmoil by a paper published in the journal The Holocene. In it, Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, part of the University of California at San Diego, compared model estimates of natural temperature fluctuations over the past 400 years with the best evidence from the real world -- from instruments in the past century and "proxy data", such as Briffa's tree rings, from before that.

The result was bad news for the modellers. The two models examined -- one German, the other American -- generated a natural variability of around 0.1 degree C per century. This was less than half that revealed in the proxy data. "Of course we don't have to believe the proxy data. They certainly have problems attached to them. But my belief is that they both models, and proxy data too, underestimate real variability," says Barnett

The models' error was not, perhaps, too surprising. As Barnett points out, they do not include vital "forcing" mechanisms that alter temperature, such as solar cycles and volcanic eruptions. Nor can they yet mimic the strength of the largest year-on-year variability in the natural system, the El Nino oscillation in the Pacific Ocean, which has a global impact on climate.

Nonetheless, the findings should serve as a warning, Barnett says, that "the current models cannot be used in rigorous tests for anthropogenic signals in the real world". If they are they "might lead us to believe that an anthropogenic signal had been found when, in fact, that may not be the case."

Barnett knows how easily this can happen. He was a lead author for a critical chapter in the last IPCC scientific assessment, which investigated "the detection of climate change and attribution of causes". It formulated the IPCC case that the evidence points towards a human influence on climate, but it warned repeatedly that great uncertainties remained. "We wrote a long list of caveats in that chapter," says Barnett. "We got a lot of static from within IPCC, from people who wanted to water down and delete some of those caveats. We had to work very hard to keep them all in." Even so, when the findings were first leaked to the New York Times, it was under the headline "Scientists finally confirm human role in global warming".

Suggestive though the evidence may be, Barnett and his co-authors insist that the uncertainties, especially concerning natural variability, have to be answered. And so, suddenly, the modellers are queuing at Briffa's door to find out what his tree-ring data shows about the real world beyond the computer simulations. "Five years ago, climate modellers wanted nothing to do with the palaeo community," says Briffa with a grin. "But now they realise that they need our data. We can help them to define natural variability." He has already collaborated with Barnett. Tett paid his first visit to the dendrochronology lab in November [1996].

And so to the forests of Europe and Asia where, over the next [how many?] years Briffa will coordinate the work of colleagues in a dozen countries who hope to dramatically increase the available proxy data on past climate change. Much of the best data so far has come from the forests round Lake Tornetrask, on the northern border of Sweden, deep inside the Arctic Circle. This is near the northern limit for Scots pine, a place where their growth rate of the trees can be massively altered by small perturbations in summer temperatures. The result is dramatic differences in the thickness and density of tree rings.

The head of this work is Professor W [full first name?] Karlen [ed: acute on e], a geographer at the University of Stockholm, who over many years has taken cores from living trees and from logs and stumps hauled from old peat bogs. Despite the harsh climate, there are living trees here up to 600 years old. And the chronology can be extended ever further by analysing the dead trees. So far the climate reconstruction is complete for more than 1400 years before the present; the aim now is to extent it up to 8000 years.

The best data, says Briffa, comes from analysing both ring width and the maximum density of wood in each ring. By firing X-rays through the wood, researchers can now analyse the density of rings as little as 30 microns across -- the equivalent of a tree's girth growing by a centimetre every century. The growth of cell walls late in the growing season creates the densest wood and, says Briffa, "appears to depend directly on the average mean temperature".

Even so, ring growth is a product of many factors, including the genetics of the tree, past climate, the age of the tree and soil moisture. The relationships between ring growth and summer temperature are not a precise. But comparisons between the recent rings and known climatic data show that the rings can capture at least half of the summer temperature variability.

The temperature graphs produced at Tornetrask show "pronounced variability on all timescales, from year-on-year variations right up to century-on-century," says Briffa. On the longer timescales, for instance, they show 20 major cooling periods during the past two millenia, including long spells between 500 and 850, between 1100 and 1350 and between 1580 and 1750, the little ice age. There were also long warm spells between 900 and 1100, known as the medieval warm period, and 1360 to 1560. [ed: show graph from NERC paper].

Further back, early results suggest a strong warm era from 4000 to 3300 BC, and a cool period ending around 5070 BC. But there are intriguing gaps, for which no tree rings can be found. These, says Briffa, "suggest some major calamity that destroyed trees. Volcanoes, perhaps, or a rapid rise in the water tables." A 19-year gap between 1130 and 1111 BC, for instance, coincides with volcanic ash showing up in Greenland ice.

"What all this means," says Briffa, "is that the old image of the xxx xxxx xxxxyears since the end of the last ice age -- the Holocene era -- as climatically tranquil looks increasingly inaccurate." Hence the intense interest in the EU project, which will attempt to reconstruct those xxx xxxx xxxxyears of climate right across northern Europe and Asia, from Ireland to the Sea of Okhotsk, from the borders of Mongolia to shores of the Arctic Ocean.

During the past summer, helicopters flying low over the tundra have spotted logs in hundreds of small lakes in the Tornetrask region of northern Sweden. Karlen has donned his diving suit to help remove samples of timber from the freezing waters [did he?]. In northern Finland, local diving clubs picked some 3000 samples from lakes.

In the Arctic wastes of northern Siberia, a major survey is being conducted on the Taimyr peninsula, the largest stretch of frozen tundra in Eurasia and far north of today's tree line. There are well-preserved logs buried in river sediments here that grew between 5000 and 8000 years ago. On the Yamal Peninsula, just east of the Ural mountains on the shores of the Arctic Ocean, wood dug from the permafrost grew in conditions so cold that some summers temperatures never exceeded the threshold for growth of about 5 degrees C, so no growth rings formed. Nonetheless Yamal is the only site so far found that yields tree rings right through a gap at 300 BC. "Interestingly, the Yamal rings show this to have been the coldest period in the entire run," says Briffa.

Other, less detailed, surveys are being carried out across the whole of the north of the two continents. And this winter the timber is being analysed at laboratories in Copenhagen and Birmensdorf -- the Swiss home of Fritz Schweingruber, one of the world's top tree-ring analysts. The project will also carry out new analysis on the large numbers of samples of ancient oak already stored in laboratories in Ireland, Britain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and Sweden. The oak has been dragged from bogs and river beds, or liberated from archaeological sites and even the beams of old houses over the past 30 years.

"There is a massive amount of data on existing European oak rings. But much of it was done in the 1970s, and then not updated," says Briffa. One of Britain's biggest collections, at Sotterley Park near Lowestoft in Suffolk [Keith: who runs this?], has ring data going back to 1580. "But it stops in the 1980s, missing the recent major droughts. We have got to update that information."

Already, the first long data sets are starting to emerge from Siberia. Last summer [ed: 13 July 1995], Briffa, Schweingruber and Stepan Shiyatov of the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology at Ekaterunburg in the Russian Urals published a paper on "unusual 20th-century summer warmth in a 1000-year temperature record from Siberia". A complete tree-ring chronology from AD 914, pieced together from larches on the Yamal peninsula, suggested that average summer temperatures since 1901 have been higher than for any similar length of time during the chronology. It estimated that from 1600, the depth of the little ice age, to the present day there has been a 1.14 degrees C warming. The first eight decades of the 20th century were 0.13 degrees C warmer than the next warmest period, nine centuries before in1202-91.

The chronology also showed that Europe's "little ice age" extended east of the Urals, but that the medieval warm period did not. But these long trends disguise sharp short-term anomalies. The 11th century seems to have been a particularly turbulent time in the Urals. 1032, the year of the Changbai eruption, yielded the coldest summer in a thousand years. But the following year was the second warmest of the millenium, at 2.11 degrees above the mean.

Tree rings are not the only source of proxy temperature data. Layers of ice laid down annually in permanent ice sheets, such as those in Greenland and Antarctica, carry a temperature record in the isotopic composition of the ice. Corals also have a temperature imprint, and even sediments on continental shelves can be mined for climate information. The most work, so far, has been done on ice sheets. American and European researchers in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP), for instance, have drilled for 3 kilometres into the ice pack, going back more than xxx xxxx xxxxyears. Besides plotting the course of the last ice age, they have found evidence of constant climate shifts during the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears.

Briffa says tree rings and ice cores "complement each other, focusing best at different timescales." Tree rings show annual and decade-to-decade variations very clearly. But they do not go back so far, and are not so good at spotting change from millenium to millenium. Ring analysis seems to smooth out long-term trends, probably because trees slowly adapt to these changes, disguising them." On the other hand, ice-core data shows up long-term trends very clearly, but is poor at showing single-year changes. The melting and refreezing of ice in the surface of ice packs means that the ice from individual years tends to mingle together.

The patterns of temperature change revealed by these different methods will probably always remain too fragmented to reveal unambiguous trends in global average temperatures. But this may not matter. "Frankly, global averages are not central to the issue of attributing climate change," says Barnett. "What will ultimately prove whether or not we are altering the climate will be the patterns of temperature change -- geographical patterns, seasonal patterns and vertical patterns." It is not how much it warms, but where, that will be vital.

Under the IPCC umbrella, Barnett and Phil Jones of the CRU have formed a small "detections group", to look for these tell-tale patterns. "We are systematically looking at the patterns, past and present, of all the main forcings on climate," Barnett says. They will investigate how the world's climate systems respond to volcanoes, to changes in the ocean circulation, to solar cycles and so on. "Then we will compare those patterns with what we are seeing today. What we hope is that the current patterns of temperature change prove distinctive, quite different from the patterns of natural variability in the past." And if that turns out to be the case, he says, "we will be able to close down this issue of attribution, perhaps within three to five years."

Here, the climate models will again come into play. If current climate change also accords with what the models predict from global warming, then the "hand of man" will indeed look to be on the planet's thermostat.

The models all suggest that anthropogenic global warming will show a very distinctive pattern. For instance, they predict that anthropogenic warming will be greatest in the northern latitudes of the great continental land masses, such as Eurasia. And that makes the finding of Briffa's team that summer temperatures in northern Siberia are higher than for a millenium potentially extremely important. And the prospect of further data from this region to confirm that finding so intriguing.

Briffa grins at the prospect. "The trend seems to be accelerating. We are getting reports back from Stepan, our man in the Urals, that it was warmer this spring on the Yamal peninsula there than ever before, and tree growth has been absolutely fantastic. It is a major warming, like nothing seen there for a thousand years -- and it is what the climate models predict." Caution prevails, but the elusive pattern of man-made global warming may just be emerging amid the larch groves on the sunny hills of northern Siberia.

ends

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From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: the Yamal data
Date: Wed Oct 30 17:45:xxx xxxx xxxx

Dear Rashit,
As always I seem to have been away bullshiting and politiking in
various meetings for weeks! I try to convince myself that this is of use to us as a dendrochronological community but I am not so sure how much that is really
true these days. I have the data you sent and I had to get someone here to
decode it for me . That is fine now so I would like to try and reformat and RCS it . I will be back in touch soon. Your paper is in review for Denrochronologia.
I am very keen to get a much more detailed paper in The Holocene dealing with
this stuff and I hope you and Stepan will consider this - perhaps for some time in spring next year. Sorry I wasn't in touch sooner. Please give my regards
to Stepan and Valerie.
very best wishes
Keith

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From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: the Yamal data
Date: Thu Oct 31 12:01:xxx xxxx xxxx

Dear Rashit,
In looking at the data I now see that you have only sent data from abot 350bc onwards. What is the situation with the earlier data. I am very interested in the details of the 1st millennium B.C. and especially this period from about
500 to 100 B.C. We still have a gap in the Tornetrask data at about 350 B.C.
I was of the opinion that this period was very low growth in the chronology of yours shown by Stepan in Cambridge - but it does not seem so low in the
chronology he gave me. What are your thoughts on this and is it possible to get the earlier data when you are happy with them?Thanks very best wishes
Keith

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From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Eugene Vaganov <evag@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: message from Vaganov
Date: Tue Nov 12 17:36:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Eugene
I have not received my copy of the book. A message to Malcolm is
the best idea. I have been experimenting with the Yamal data mostly trying
to fit RCS curves - and am finding problems with recent local chronologies
behaving oddly - i.e. too much growth in recent years makes it difficult to
derive a valid age/growth curve. I have produced a rcs standardised curve
for taimyr and will fax a copy to you. I will send comments to you and stepan
on the two papers reviewed for dendrocronologia on the development of the yamal
and taimyr chronologies. I have made major changes to the tracheid paper and need to type and send the new version to you - also there are problems understanding some bits - I will ask specific questions. How goes the organisation of the Krasnoyarsk meeting?
Stepan /Rashit I have had some comments on the Yamal paper that I will try to
email tommorow.
best wishes
Keith


At 13:41 12/11/96 +0000, you wrote:
>Dear Keith
> How are you? Did you receive the material
>(chronologies on Siberian subarctic) from
>Stepan? Several days later I'll send to you
>some additional data (several samples) on
>Taymir supra-long chronology, which make
>more deep in sampling the interval around
>xxx xxxx xxxxyear.
> There are a few questions to you.
>1. The volume of "Radiocarbon" with proccedings
> reach Krasnoyarsk with some months delay, so
> can you send me by fax (007)(3912xxx xxxx xxxx
> the content of volume (only for references)?
>2. What about the draft of paper which I gave
> you in Germany (paper concerning the compa-
> rison of tracheid dimension, cell wall thickness
> and density)?
>Best wishes,Gene.
>

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From: gjjenkins@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
To: p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, deparker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: 1996 global temperatures
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 11:23 +0000 (GMT)
Cc: llivingston@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, djcarson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx


Phil

Remember all the fun we had last year over 1995 global temperatures,
with early release of information (via Oz), "inventing" the December
monthly value, letters to Nature etc etc?

I think we should have a cunning plan about what to do this year,
simply to avoid a lot of wasted time.

I have been discussing with David P and suggest the following:

1. By 20 Dec we will have land and sea data up to Nov

2. David (?) computes the December land anomaly based on 500hPa
heights up to 20 Dec.

3. We assume that Dec SST anomaly is the same as Nov

4. We can therefore give a good estimate of 1996 global temps by 20
Dec

5. We feed this selectively to Nick Nuttall (who has had this in the
past and seems now to expect special treatment) so that he can write
an article for the silly season. We could also give this to Neville
Nicholls??

6. We explain that data is provisional and how the data has been
created so early (ie the estimate for Dec) and also

7. We explain why the globe is 0.23k (or whatever the final figure is)
cooler than 95 (NAO reversal, slight La Nina). Also that global annual
avg is only accuirate to a few hundredths of a degree (we said this
last year - can we be more exact, eg PS/MS 0.05K or is this to big??)

8. FROM NOW ON WE ANSWER NO MORE ENQUIRIES ABOUT 1996 GLOBAL TEMPS BUT
EXPLAIN THAT IT WILL BE RELEASED IN JANUARY.

9. We relesae the final estimate on 20 Jan, with a joint UEA/MetO
press release. It may not evoke any interest by then.

10. For questions after the release to Nuttall, (I late Dec, early
Jan) we give the same answer as we gave him.

Are you happy with this, or can you suggest something better (ie
simpler)? I know it sound a bit cloak-and-dagger but its just meant to
save time in the long run.

Im copying this to DEP and CKF also for comments.

Cheers

Geoff

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From: Wolfgang Cramer <cramer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, VXT_COPR@xxxxxxxxx.xxx (I. Colin Prentice)
Subject: Re: EU proposals
Date: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 15:51:36 +0100

Hm, clearly coordination between the two (if it really ends up as two)
groups is absolutely essential, otherwise we would look entirely
stupid. The first thing that comes to my mind is that nitrogen would be
emphasizing a component of our overall idea which otherwise would not
receive great attention - hence it could be, perhaps, amalgamated. They
probably see it the other way around: In their problem, climatic
variability comes second in importance. My view on this is that all of
our model intercomparisons have shown that models essentially do crazy
things with interannual variability, simply because nobody ever has
tested them for that in any detail. Esser's model would probably be the
last candidate to use here, since it is "less mechanistic" than any of
the others - in fact, Colin and I seemed to agree to "not necessarily"
include it into this proposal. These are just some thoughts for the
moment.

I just finished a very first, rough draft of our outline, and I attach
it to the end of this message. I have just sent it to Martin Heimann,
but I have still not yet talked to him. I also send this whole thing to
Colin, hoping that he will catch the thread through it without
problems. Gerard Dedieu is the one I want to approach next - Alberte is
already talking to him about this in the context with other things.

Cheers,

Wolfgang

On Nov 22, 14:12, Mike Hulme wrote:
> Subject: EU proposals
> Wolfgang,
>
> This email (see below) has just arrived from Andrew Friend. I wonder
if we
> are in danger of competing amongst ourselves here, or is the role of
N
> sufficiently far away to avoid problems? Do you want me to talk with
Andrew
> again or shall I wait for you to get back to me next week after
contacting
> Martin? Would Gerd Esser be one of 'our' C modellers?
>
> Looking at the call for proposals it seems that 'Theme 1.1.1 Basic
processes
> in the climate system' fits best for us since there is a specific
item (5)
> which states: 'studies of global budgets of greenhouse gases with
> particular emphasis on fluxes, transformations and stroage in the
biosphere,
> lithosphere and oceans.'
>
> If not here, then maybe under '1.1.3 Climate variability, simulation
of
> climate and prediction of climate change' since there is an item (4)
> 'Development, validation and application of models for important
> climate-related quantities such as mean sea-levels, storm and surge
climates
> and carbon cycling.' But here there is an emphasis on European
approaches.
>
> About EU politics, Balabanis is the guy for ESCOBA, but that doesn't
mean he
> is necessarily the one for us. Troen handles a lot of the climate
projects
> in 1.1.1, 1.1.2 and 1.1.3. We have quite a bit to do with him. But
it
> depends if there is someone else on carbon etc. Maybe Balabanis is
the
> place to start.
>
> Regards,
>
> Mike
>
> **********************
>
> Dear Mike
>
> Thank you very much for your hospitality the other day. I enjoyed my
visit and
> look forward to continued collaboration. With regard to ESCOBA, this
project is
> in domain 1.1 of the Environment and Climate Programme, and is thus
the
> responsibility of Balabanis.
>
> Has there been any progress with regard to a new proposal? I have
contacted
> Gerard Dedieu, and he says that he will have to think about the idea
some more.
> Meanwhile, I have received an invitation from Gerd Esser (another
ESCOBA
> partner) to put together a new proposal to look at 'The role of
nitrogen in the
> carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere' for submission in
January. A
> couple of the other ESCOBA partners have expressed interest in this
proposal.
> Part of the new project will be to use global process-based carbon
models, such
> as our Hybrid model, to assess the biospheric sink for C (and its
geographical
> distribution) over the period 1750 to 1990. I guess there could be a
role for
> an improved climatology here.
>
> I could investigate further the current intention with regard to
climatology in
> this project if you wish.
>
> Andrew
>
>-- End of excerpt from Mike Hulme

2

Global, spatially explicit assessment of the interannual
variability in terrestrial carbon storage

VERY FIRST, INCOMPLETE draft for a new research proposal
to be submitted to the European Union
for the second phase of the Third Framework "Environment and
Climate"

Goal

A critical uncertainty in assessments of global change impacts
and feedbacks is the source/sink relationship for carbon
between atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere, and
particularly its interannual variability. Recent advances in
modelling of atmospheric and biospheric processes, combined
with significant progress in data gathering for climate, CO2
and O2, now allow for a dedicated experiment that is likely to
reduce this uncertainty. Equilibrium approaches to the
simulation of global carbon fluxes are no longer adequate for
this, since empirical studies are showing both a long-term
trend and a significant interannual variability of CO2 fluxes,
which appear to be most strongly driven by climatic impacts on
terrestrial vegetation.
Experimental design

For a time period of several decades, we propose to perform a
simulation of biospheric carbon fluxes using:

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From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: from Rashit
Date: Mon, 9 Dec 96 14:19:37 +0500

Dear Keith,
we received your letters concerning our paper for Dendrochronologia
and three long chronologies.
1. As regards individual ring width data of living trees from
Yamal we would remind you that you have them. Stepan gave to you
in England one diskette. There are data for Larix sibirica from
three sites (KHA - from Khadyta river, 67812'N 69850'E; JAH -
from Yahody river 67807'N 69854'E and POR - from Portsa river
67827'N 71800'E) and for Picea obovata from two points (SCH -
Shtshutshya river 66849'N 69850'E and KHD - from Khadyta river
67807'N 69854'E).
2. We would be very gratefull if you can do some corrections and
additions in the paper for Dendrochronologia. We did not quite
understand what we have to do on missing rings? Just enumerate
years when missing rings occur? If so, these are following years:

Year absent % ind % Year absent % ind %
-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 31
-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 31
-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 33
-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 38
-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 67
-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 12
-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 10
-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 14
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 34
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 12
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 30
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 25
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 61
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 59
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 8
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 36
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 15
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 44
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 18
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 58
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 18
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 53
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 8
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 14
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 38
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 9
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 20
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 24
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 30
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 10
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxliving
-xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 16 6%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 16 6%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 10%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 15%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 21 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 21 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 73%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 64%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 27%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 55%
xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 66
l i v i n g
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 38
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 47
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 31
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 49
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 21
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 39
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 50
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 29
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 20
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 32
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 46
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 45
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 46
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 40
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 102
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 50
1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 40

We have to note that frequency of missing rings on increment
cores of living trees higher, because on samples of subfossil
trees we try to find this kind of rings on whole disc.
Some periods are notable for missing rings: xxx xxxx xxxxBC, 882 BC,
143 AD, xxx xxxx xxxxAD (especially 640 AD), xxx xxxx xxxxAD, 1453 AD
and beginning of 1800th AD.
3. Stepan ask what about book by Bailey?
Best wishes,
Rashit

Original Filename: 850162662.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: the paper
Date: Mon Dec 9 15:17:xxx xxxx xxxx

Dear Rashit and Stepan
Thanks for the message and the missing data info. I will
make some additions and include a plot/list of these missing years. I assume
you don't mind me including your plot of the recent Yamal curve and statistics
about crossdating with Polar Urals. I'll send ammended paper as soon as possible. Thanks for the quick reply. Do you have a working fax?
best wishes to you all
Keith

Original Filename: 850320678.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Tim Carter <tim.carter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: d.viner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx (David Viner - Climate Impacts LINK Project)
Subject: ECLAT 2
Date: Wed, 11 Dec 1996 11:11:18 +0200
Cc: m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Dear David/Mike,

Thanks for sending me the ECLAT 2 proposal. First, let me say that I support
the idea of a continued role for activities co-ordinating and facilitating
the provision of climate change information for EC impacts research and
other related research and policy. ECLAT 2 is one way of achieving this, but
the fact that it is a Concerted Action Initiative imposes some limitations.

The major limitation is that CAIs are not supposed to involve original
research. They are networking activities, with a view on forging research
links and developing new research projects. In my view, there is a need for
a number of targetted research activities on scenario development, that
might be covered by the themes of the workshops you are suggesting in ECLAT
2, but which would be best served by some dedicated research projects. It
really isn't satisfactory to wait until the end of ECLAT 2 before embarking
on research. Many of the key topics are already known, and although research
may be proceeding in some of these areas (especially in downscaling
techniques, scenario development techniques, etc.), what is still lacking is
co-ordination across Europe in the selection and application of climate
change scenarios in impact assessment. In my view, there are two areas in
sore need of targetted research:

(1) A project to analyse all available information from GCMs and historical
data, which will provide some uncertainty bounds on the anticipated future
climate in Europe (by region) for use in policy as well as in impacts
assessment. Such a project should involve GCM groups (interpreting the GCM
outputs), scenario developers (who can apply methods of generalising across
a lot of GCM predictions and emissions scenarios, etc.), and a few impact
analysts, who can advise on suitable scenarios for use in a variety of
applications (entry level or basic scenarios).

(2) A project to develop guidelines for impact analysts on the application
of climate change (and related) scenarios in European impact assessments.
This work would need to be linked closely to any co-ordinated, entry-level
scenarios selected for use in EC projects.

However, unless you have a project proposal in the pipeline at CRU (?) I
don't think there is now time to develop a new proposal to meet the 15
January deadline.

Comments on the draft document:

1. It is unclear to me how Figure 1 relates to the text. The arrows are not
well differentiated in the fax version I have, and the boxes are not explained.

2. Similarly, Figure 2 is also misleading. It implies that there is a large
transfer of information from the CC modelling community to the CC impacts
community, but surely the whole function of the ECLAT SE would be to act as
a filter in this transfer. Note that the title of the figure should be revised.

3. PLEASE REMOVE the reference to ECLAIR - there is no such name! This was a
light- hearted emailed suggestion for ECLAT 2, not for Martin's CA which
doesn't have a name to my knowledge.

4. In the suggested steering committee, I would strengthen the
representation of the impacts community. This could be done by time horizon:
e.g. one hydrologist to cover a range of time periods from sub-daily to
century scale; one forester or soils expert for the long term, one
agriculture person for the medium term (maybe I could represent this
community), desertification/erosion/fire risk person for short to medium
term and/or an integrated assessment person (perhaps three or four persons).
You should try to avoid the group being dominated by GCM'lers (do all GCM
groups have to be represented?)

You might ask Ib Troen if there would be any opportunity to obtain EC
funding BEFORE THE FIFTH FRAMEWORK CALL FOR PROPOSALS for a targetted
research topic, if this was strongly and urgently recommended by a task
group workshop. Might there be special funding from DG XI, ENRICH or the
Environment Agency?

Best wishes,


Tim


************************************
Dr. Timothy Carter
Affiliation: Agricultural Research Centre of Finland
Postal address: c/o Finnish Meteorological Institute
Box 503, FIN-00101 Helsinki, FINLAND

Tel: +xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: +xxx xxxx xxxx
Email: tim.carter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
************************************

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From: druid@xxxxxxxxx.xxx (Gordon Jacoby)
To: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Russia
Date: Sun, 26 Jan 1997 14:16:xxx xxxx xxxx

Hi Keith:

As you are aware, the situation in Russia is very uncertain with their
unfortunate economic condition, especially science support. There is
interest, hope, and dots on maps showing intent but actual activity is
difficult to judge. In the particular area I am interested in, the Taymyr,
there is no current active tree-ring research going on although it has been
previously sampled and some reports are in preparation. Ed probably told
you that I have submitted a proposal to do work there. My understanding is
that unless there is some external funding support, such as my project,
tree-ring sampling there is in abeyance. Several people, including
yourself, recognize the great potential in the region. From my perspective
it seems that the Polar Urals are being studied, Yokutia to the far east is
being studied, some work has been done by Szeicz and Macdonald at the Lena
but there is need for more intensive effort in Taymyr. I would like to hear
your perspective on the situation.

In a related topic, I am thinking of using the option in Ed's new ARSTAN to
use the regional standardization method. In Russia and other locales the
establishment of trees is episodic. In particular, in Alaska Glenn Juday
has data showing cohort groups being established in favorable times. In
Taymyr also, the establishment of trees is not evenly distributed through
time. There are times of growth and times of demise. This concerns me as it
could affect the development of a regional curve. do you see problems
arising from this?

I am also curious to hear any comments you care to make about my recent
letter to Fritz Schweingruber. He obviously will pursue any style of
sampling and analyses he chooses to. My only contention is that he should
not represent his data as the definitive tree-ring information,
particularly ring-width data. His opinions are influential but there is an
accumulating body of ring-width data that clearly shows him to be missing
much important information with his style of sampling. Scientists and
others should be aware of this fact.

Cheers, Gordon

Original Filename: 857600338.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Arnulf GRUBLER <gruebler@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: naki@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, becon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ja_edmonds@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hm_pitcher@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Fewewar@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, t-morita@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rob.swart@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, alcamo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, knut.alfsen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kennethgregory@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, akimoto@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, amann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Jean-Paul.Hettelingh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, schlesin@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, streetsd@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wagner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: sulfur discussion paper
Date: Wed, 05 Mar 1997 17:18:58 +0000


Sulfur Emissions in New IPCC Scenarios

Arnulf Gruebler, IIASA


SUMMARY OF PROPOSED ACTIVITIES

1. Review and comments of present sulfur discussion paper
2. Revision by sulfur paper lead author
3. Preparation of comparison of regional sulfur scenarios (by lead
author with inputs from other members of writing team and experts)

Timing: August 1997.

4. Specification of minimum and desirable sulfur emission scenario
characteristics and specification (for modeling teams in open process)
5. Establishment of key relationships between sulfur emissions and
other salient scenario driving force variables (income,
technological change environmental, non-GHG policies) using the
simple metric of sulfur to carbon emission ratios.
6. Adoption of specific sulfur control scenarios in conformity with
overall scenario ``storylines''.
7. Distribution of ``template'' sulfur scenarios to selected modeling teams
for assessment of climate and acidification impacts of sulfur scenarios.

Timing: End of 1997.


DISCUSSION PAPER

1. Introduction

The purpose of this discussion paper is to review briefly
the assumptions on sulfur emissions in the IS92 IPCC scenarios,
advances in knowledge and modeling of future sulfur emission
scenarios since IS92, as well as to initiate a discussion on how
to incorporate future sulfur emissions trends into the new IPCC emissions
scenarios. The present draft will be revised based on feedback
received within the members of the IPCC writing team as well as
additional outside experts.


2. Sulfur emissions in IS92

The treatment of sulfur emissions in the IS92 scenarios was
comprehensive. In addition to the dominant energy sector emissions,
also sulfur emissions from industrial processes and land-use changes
(biomass burning) and (a constant flow) of natural sources were
included in the scenarios.

1990 base year values in IS92 were as follows in MtS
(Million tons, or Tg, elemental sulfur; to obtain
weight as SO2 multiply by 2.):

Energy Sector: 65 MtS
Other Industry: 8 MtS
Biomass burning: 2 MtS
Natural: 22 MtS
TOTAL: 98 MtS

These global base year values are well within the range given by
global sulfur emission inventories of 4 to 45 MtS natural sources
and 65 to 90 MtS anthropogenic sources in 1990 (IPCC, 1995:xxx xxxx xxxx).
A comparison of 1990 base year sulfur emission values from a number
of scenarios and integrated assessment models is enclosed as
attachment.

However, as observed in the evaluation of the IS92 scenarios (Alcamo et al.,
1995) regional sulfur emissions assumed in IS92 (e.g. for China) are
much more uncertain. There is for instance up to a factor two difference
between regionalized estimated of global inventories and aggregates of
national and regional emissions inventories. Thus, the good agreement of
base year values of IS92 at the global level masks important differences
and uncertainties at the regional level.

A first important task for the new IPCC scenarios is therefore to update the
regional sulfur emissions baseline values with the results of
latest regional sulfur emissions inventories. Such inventories are available
for Europe through EMEP and CORINAIR, North America (NAPAP), and more
recently also for Asia (e.g. the Worldbank sulfur project, Foell et al., 1995).

Improved modeling of regional sulfur emissions (and deposition, i.e.
impacts) patterns would also require a redefinition of the world
regions as used in the IS92 scenario series. For instance, Canada
is included in the region OECD-Europe, and the IS92 region "South
Asia" includes both the Indian subcontinent as well as Indonesia.
Their important differences in resource endowments lead to different
patterns of sulfur emissions. Their differing predominant weather
patterns and distinct ecosystems lead to differing acidic deposition
patterns and impacts. Both factors preclude their aggregation into
one single regional model. Active inputs from representatives of all
respective modeling communities (regional acidification impacts, regional
climate modelers, energy systems analysts) will be sought on this
issue and lessons learned within EMF activities (M. Schlesinger) on
appropriate sulfur regionalization (6 world regions) will be extremely
valuable.

Concerning future emissions of sulfur the IS92 scenarios project
global anthropogenic emissions of between 150 to 200 MtS by 2050 and
between 140 to 230 MtS by 2100 in the high growth cases, and of around 80-90
and 60 MtS in the two low scenarios (IS92c and IS92d) by 2050 and 2100
respectively. The IS92 scenario evaluation (Alcamo
et al., 1995:xxx xxxx xxxx) concluded that the IS92 scenario series only
partially reflect recent legislation to reduce sulfur emissions (e.g.
the amendments to the Clean Air Act in the US or the Second
European sulfur protocol). Hence, particularly regional sulfur
emissions in OECD countries projected in IS92 are much higher than
more recent scenarios taking account these legislative changes (as
also discussed by IPCC, 1995:xxx xxxx xxxx). For instance the recent
scenarios of the Commission of the European Communities (EC, 1996)
indicate that sulfur emissions by 2020 will be between 64 to 77 percent
below 1990 emissions levels, or between less than 2 to 3 MtS, compared to
8 in 1990. For comparison, the IS92 scenarios project for OECD
Europe (including Canada) sulfur emissions between 8.4 (IS92a and
IS92b) and 11.7 (all other scenarios) MtS by 2020, i.e. between 2 to
30 percent lower than in 1990 (12 MtS).

In addition, integrated assessment models are increasingly able to
model in greater detail driving forces of sulfur emissions as well
as acidification impacts (cf. discussion below). These model
simulations suggest that particularly in Asia acidification impacts
would require substantial sulfur emission control measures already
much earlier than 2050. The resulting global sulfur emissions
are substantially lower than suggested in the IS92 series: typically
in the range between 20 to 80 MtS by 2050 and between 20 to 120 MtS
by 2100. (A comparison of global sulfur emissions scenarios with and
without specific sulfur control assumptions in enclosed as
attachment.)


3. What's New since IS92 (scientific front)

The importance of aerosols including those from sulfur emissions
is by now widely recognized and considerable progress has been made
to quantify their effect on regional climate, both in large GCM
simulations as well as in more simplified integrated assessment models,
e.g. MAGICC's SCENGEN module (needs checking for details with Mike Hulme)
or Michael Schlesinger's work within the EMF (current status:
uncertain). The importance of sulfur emissions as input to climate models
is therefore larger than ever.

As a result of a major World Bank study on acid rain in Asia also
improved national and regional sulfur emissions inventories have
become available (Foell et al., 1995). Improved emissions
inventories outside North America, Europe (including the European
part of the former USSR), and Asia (excluding Oceania, for which
only sparse data seems to be available) have not been made available
since publication of IS92.
As a result, models and scenarios continue to rely on estimates, largely
based on approximate mass and sulfur balance approaches in the world regions
for the Middle East, Southern Africa, and Latin America (cf. discussion of
data availability below).

Similarly, acidification impact models are increasingly being
refined for regions outside OECD in particular for Asia.
Acidification impact studies for unabated sulfur
emissions of coal intensive ``business as usual'' scenarios indicate
exceedance of critical loads of up to a factor 10 already within the
next three to four decades (Amann et al., 1995) with enormous
impacts on natural ecosystems as well as important foodcrops (Fischer
et al., 1996).

Increasingly also energy sector and integrated assessment models
link regional acidification models with simplified climate models
enabling joint analysis of sulfur and climate policies and
impacts. Examples include the IMAGE model (Posch et al., 1996) and the
IIASA integrated assessment model (Rogner and Nakicenovic, 1996) that are
linked with the acidification model RAINS for Europe and Asia, the AIM
(Morita et al., 1994) model for Asia, or ???? for North America.
These models extend earlier energy sector models that dealt with a
comparative costs assessment of isolated sulfur and carbon reductions,
and joint mitigation respectively, such as the OECD GREEN model
(Complainville and Martins, 1994). The state of knowledge of joint
benefits of sulfur and carbon emission reductions was reviewed in
the 1995 IPCC WG III report (IPCC, 1996: xxx xxxx xxxx) and is expanding
rapidly.


4. Data requirements

The most obvious data requirements concern of course
comprehensiveness of sulfur emissions by major source category
(anthropogenic and natural, energy sector and other industrial sources).
Here the data model of the IS92 scenarios appears appropriate and would only
require a reassessment in view of most recent data concerning regional
emissions (particularly in China, where data uncertainties seem
largest).

A more difficult question concerns spatial disaggregation.
Independent from the question of which formal models are being used
to check for scenario consistency, the outmost spatial detail
currently in driving force models with global coverage available is
at the level of world regions (typically around 10, but going up to
around 20 world regions). Both climate as well as acidification
models require inputs at finer spatial resolution. It is unclear at
present what would constitute a ``minimum'' or ``desirable'' level
of spatial disaggregation for the variety of user communities of new
IPCC scenarios. Existing model links (like with the RAINS model)
could be used in some regions like Europe and Asia to generate
spatially highly disaggregated sulfur emission and deposition maps
as inputs for climate models and for impact assessment studies (e.g.
for agricultural crop yield models). In their most advanced
versions the model links even incorporate regionalized differential
growth trends and thus improve on the standard practice of
renormalizing base year spatial emission and deposition patterns
linearly with a particular sulfur emissions scenario.

For regions where similar links are unavailable, more simplified procedures
will need to be devised, keeping in mind the overall tight time frame of the
scenario exercise. Two data sets (are there more??) appear available for
regionalized sulfur emission patterns: the Oak Ridge
GAIA data set (spatial resolution: ????) and the Spiro et al. (1992)
data set (spatial resolution: one degree by one degree).

An open (but extremely critical) issue remaining to be resolved is
to identify mechanisms and responsible groups that could provide the
link between the spatial resolution of the new IPCC scenarios sulfur
emissions to whatever final geographical scales required by impact
assessment and climate models.


5. Scenarios and Sulfur Policies

There are two major sets of driving force variable that influence
future sulfur emissions. 1. Level and structure of energy supply and end
use, and 2. degree of sulfur control policies assumed. (Because of the
dominance of energy related sulfur emissions, they should receive
particular attention in the new scenarios. Industrial sources could
be included in the scenarios with much a simpler driving force
model, e.g. coupling to industrial output.)
Ceteris paribus, highest sulfur emissions occur in scenarios of high demand
growth, rapid resource depletion, limited technological change and absence
of sulfur control policies outside OECD countries. In terms of energy
supply structures such scenarios imply a massive use of coal, including
synfuel production. Typical examples would include the IS92e
and IS92f scenarios. Up to ca. 2050 sulfur emissions in such
scenarios roughly grow in line with fossil fuel use and resulting
carbon emissions, i.e. a roughly constant sulfur to carbon emissions
ratio. Post 2050, still in absence of sulfur control policies,
growth rates of sulfur emissions start to fall short of growth in
fossil fuel use due to the internal technology logic of synfuel
production: synfuel production requires prior coal conversion (e.g.
gasification) and removal of sulfur prior to further conversion,
e.g. to synliquids. Ceteris paribus, therefore sulfur emissions
relative to those of carbon decline.

Sulfur emissions are lower in scenarios with 1. lower demand, 2. more
ample resource availability (especially for natural gas), 3. higher
rates of technological change (especially for non-fossil energy
technologies), and 4. extent and timing of direct sulfur control policies
especially outside OECD countries (itself function of projected impacts like
acidification), and finally, 5. level of other environmental control
measures and valuation of environmental goods (e.g. sulfur emissions are
also lower in scenarios imposing limits on GHG emissions).

Next to environmental impacts and policies, there are also other key
relationships that need to be considered for the formulation of
future sulfur scenarios. For instance, the literature on
environmental Kuznets curves (cf. e.g. World Bank, 1992, or
IIASA-WEC, 1995) argues that with increasing affluence and valuation
of environmental goods, sulfur emissions decline. This hypothesis
is corroborated by both longitudinal and cross-sectional empirical
data. Thus, in the process of industrialization and economic development,
emissions rise initially, pass through a maximum (say at income levels
around 2000 $/capita) and decline thereafter with rising per capita incomes
and the resulting preference of cleaner end-use fuels, valuation of clean
environments, etc.

A scenario taxonomy along the dimensions of demand, resource
availability, and technological change in any case is necessary to
respond to the critique on the IS92 series that these important
driving forces were not varied appropriately to reflect both
uncertainty as well as new scientific knowledge and empirical
evidence. They form part of the overall scenario design process and
the scenario ``storylines'' and need not to be addressed
specifically in the work on sulfur emissions.

Separate ``sulfur stories'' could be developed in addition, based on various
relationships between sulfur emissions and levels of affluence,
industrial structure, etc. within the overall framework of the
scenario ``storylines''. Here sulfur emissions would be part of
other environmental policies (e.g. on water quality, urban traffic
related pollutants, etc.) that form integral part of particular
scenario ``storylines''.

A key variable remains the timing and extent of sulfur control
policies to be assumed for the new scenarios. First of all the
scenarios need to reflect changes in actual policies implemented.
As noted above, IS92 did not take full account of recent
environmental legislation in both North America and the second
European sulfur protocol. Secondly, the sulfur policies to be
assumed, need to reflect recent scientific findings, in particular
the very large local and regional impacts on agricultural crops and
ecosystems of unabated high sulfur emission scenarios, particularly
in Asia. Therefore, all scenarios should assume faster and
deeper reductions in sulfur emissions outside OECD countries than
were assumed for IS92 in light of this recent scientific evidence. The
exact timing and extent of such sulfur reduction measures could then
be scenario dependent. Also no specific reference to individual
policy measures would need to be made (to avoid normative policy
elements, or recommendations, in the scenarios), as reduction
profiles could be adopted from existing sulfur reduction scenarios
in the scientific literaursement by UE (Action COST) for the lecturer, but for this I hope to
>have an answer as soon as possible.
>
>Thank you for your answer
>
>Best regards
>
>I'm Bernardo Gozzini and I work with Marco Bindi in the organisation of this
>seminar because Marco in the next week will leave for USA for two months and
>he cannot follow it
>******************************************************************
>Bernardo Gozzini
>Ce.S.I.A.-Accademia dei Georgofili
>Piazzale delle Cascine, 18
>50144 FIRENZE ITALIA
>
>tel: 39 xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx/ 354897
>fax 39 xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
>e-mail: gozzini@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>******************************************************************
>
>

Original Filename: 857677215.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Eugene Vaganov <evag@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: from Vaganov
Date: Thu, 6 Mar 97 14:40:15 +0000 (KRS)

06.03.97
fAJL partid.txt

2.xxx xxxx xxxxCO
2.xxx xxxx xxxxProfessor
2.xxx xxxx xxxxHead of Group
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxFritz
2.6
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSchweingruber
2.8.1 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape
Research
2.8.2 Department of Ecology
2.8.3 Forest and Climate Research Unit
2.9
2.10 Zuercherstrasse 111
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Birmensdorf
2.14 CH
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.17 fritz.schweingruber@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx

2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Philosophy
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSenior Research Associate
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxKeith
2.6
2.xxx xxxx xxxxBriffa
2.8.1 University of East Anglia
2.8.2 School of Environmental Sciences
2.8.3 Climatic Research Unit
2.9
2.10
2.11
2.12 NR4 7TJ
2.13 Norwich
2.14 GB
2.xxx xxxx xxxx90
2.xxx xxxx xxxx84
2.17 k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx

2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Biological Sciences
2.xxx xxxx xxxxHead of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxStepan
2.xxx xxxx xxxxGrigor'evich
2.xxx xxxx xxxxShiyatov
2.8.1 Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology
2.8.2
2.8.3 Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxUral Branch RAS
2.xxx xxxx xxxxMarta Street 202
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Ekaterinburg
2.14 RU
2.xxx xxxx xxxx0
2.xxx xxxx xxxx1
2.17 plant@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx

2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Biological Sciences
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDirector of Forest Institute
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxEvgeny
2.xxx xxxx xxxxAlexandrovich
2.xxx xxxx xxxxVaganov
2.8.1 Institute of Forest
2.8.2
2.8.3 Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSiberian Branch RAS
2.10
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Krasnoyarsk
2.14 RU
2.xxx xxxx xxxx9
2.xxx xxxx xxxx6
2.17 evag@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx


fAJL power.txt

"MULTI-MILLENNIAL-LENGTH DENDROCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONS AT
HIGH-LATITUDE REGIONS OF SIBERIA".



By signing this declaration, I certify that the information given
in this proposal relating to me and the team I represent is to
the best of my knowledge true and complete. I have been involved
in the preparation of the full proposal and I agree with its
contents. I am fully authorised to commit myself and the team I
represent to be ready to set up and execute all tasks, duties and
obligations assigned to us in this research proposal, if
selected.



I hereby authorise the co-ordinator as lawful attorney and
administrator and empower him to act all of the necessary actions
to administrate validly the herein said rights on behalf of me in
case the proposal should be selected by INTAS, inter alia, to
negotiate and to conclude the co-operation agreement, as well as
any amendments, variations or additions to the co-operation
agreement on my behalf.



Laboratory of Dendrochronology
Institute of Forest SB RAS
Krasnoyarsk



Dr.Eugene A.Vaganov

5 March, 1997


fAJL projid.txt

1.1 Multi-millennial-length dendroclimatic reconstructions
at high-latitude regions of Siberia.
1.2 5
1.xxx xxxx xxxx
1.4 36
1.5 Oct-97
1.6 4
1.xxx xxxx xxxx

By signing this proposal, I certify that the information given in
this proposal is the best of my knowledge, true and complete as
received from all project participants; that all participants
were involved in the preparation, agree with this project
proposal and have declared themselves ready to perform the
project as proposed in case of selection.

I am fully authorised to commit myself and the team I represent
to be ready to set up and execute all tasks, duties and
obligations assigned to us in this research proposal and I am
ready to act as the co-ordinator of the project.

The proposal contains ..... pages.


PROJECT CO-ORDINATOR First name and family name:
Fritz Schweingruber


Date: ..... March,1xxx xxxx xxxxOriginal signature:


fAJL sum.txt

4.1. TITLE OF THE PROJECT
Multi-millennial-length dendroclimaticreconstructions
at high-latitude regions of Siberia

4.2. SUMMARY
This research will make a major contribution to our knowledge of
high-resolution climate variability at high latitudes of Western
and Middle Siberia throughout the Holocene using the unique
potential of tree-ring data.

The specific objectives of this proposal are the development of
two supra-long (each spanning xxx xxxx xxxxyears up to present)
continuous larch ring-width chronologies at two distant each
other high-latitude locations of Siberia (Yamal and Taimyr
peninsulas). Ring-width chronologies developed from coniferous
trees growing at the polar timberline in Siberia contain a very
strong climatic signal, mainly summer air temperatures. With
these chronologies high-resolution continuous and quantitative
reconstruction of summer temperatures will be made.

As in the areas of the past and present polar and upper
timberlines trees megafossils have been preserved properly in
large quantities in the Holocene deposits (alluvial, lacustrine
and peat), there is a good possibility to develop continuous,
multi-millennial tree-ring chronologies.

Now the material already collected and measured (1800 subfossil
wood samples from Yamal and 280 samples from Taimyr) has yielded
the ring-width chronologies continuously spanning the last 3200
years (Yamal) and 950 years (Taimyr).

However, there are also many more samples that have been measured
and have provided data, now assembled in a number of provisionally
"floating" chronologies covering much of the period from 7000 to
1700 B.C. (based on some 70 radiocarbon dates of samples of this
wood). There is a fair chance that a xxx xxxx xxxxyear continuous
chronologies will be constructed within the span of the proposed
project.

These chronologies and temperature reconstructions will be the
first to be so long, reliable, annually-resolved and
precisely-dated with known reliability across the whole of
northern Hemisphere. These reconstructions will allow to compare
and contrast the details of temperature changes at the
moderate-continental region of Yamal Peninsula with the
continental region of Taimyr Peninsula and allow modern and
predicted temperature patterns to be compared with variability
patterns of pre-industrial era. Participants of the proposed
project are the well-known institutions which are engaged in the
field of dendrochronology and dendroclimatology and have
collaborated with each other during the last 6 years.



fAJL workpro.txt

3.1 TITLE
Multi-millennial-length dendroclimatic reconstructions
at high-latitude regions of Siberia

3.2 OBJECTIVES
This research will make a major contribution to our knoweledge of
high-resolution climate variability at high latitudes of Western
and Middle Siberia throughout the Holocene using the unique
potential of tree-ring data.

The specific objectives of this proposal are as follows:
- to develop two supra-long (each spanning xxx xxxx xxxxyears up to
present) continuous ring-width larch chronologies at two
high-latitude locations of Siberia;
- using these tree-ring chronologies, tomake a multi-millennial
high-resolution continuous and quantitative reconstruction of
summer temperatures;
- to analyse spatio-temporal patterns of temperature variability
at these locations over a range of timescales (annual, decadal,
multi-decadal and centennial) and their connections with various
forcing factors and other annual resolution records being
developed elsewhere in the Arctic and Subarctic.

3.3. BACKGROUND
Reconstruction and analysis of natural climatic changes through
the whole Holocene at high latitudes are of great importance as
climatic conditions, especially air temperature, are most
variable and sensitive to various forcing functions (Budyko,
1980; Jones and Kelly, 1983; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 1990). However, there are a minute quantity of long,
precisely-dated and high-resolution proxy climatic series for
these regions.

The territory of Yamal Peninsula located on the eastern boundary
of influence of the Atlantic air masses and the territory of the
eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula located between the Arctic High
and Siberian High are of major importance for monitoring regional
and global-mean air temperatures and assessing theories and
models concerned with past, current and future climate changes
(Lamb, 1977; Briffa and Jones, 1993; Moses et al., 1987).

Tree rings as a proxy indicator of the past climatic conditions
are of special interest as they allow to reconstruct climatic
parameters with seasonal and annual resolution for many hundred
and thousand years, to provide an exact absolute and relative
dating of the tree-ring data, to establish high-frequency climate
changes (from interannual to centennial timescales) with high
confidence, to obtain dendroclimatic information practically for
every site where trees grow at present or grew in the past.

Intensive dendroclimatic investigations are carrying out in many
countries and regions, mainly in temperate and subtropic zones
(Fritts, 1976, 1991 ). At high latitudes such works began later
(during the last two decades) and living trees were used
primarily for developing tree-ring chronologies of xxx xxxx xxxxyears
long (Aniol and Eckstein, 1984; Shiyatov, 1984, 1986; Jacoby and
D'Arrigo, 1989; Schweingruber, Briffa and Nogler, 1993; Briffa,
Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Vaganov,1996; Jacoby, Wiles,
D'Arrigo, 1996; Vaganov, Shiyatov and Mazepa, 1996). As in the
areas of the past and present polar and upper timberlines trees
megafossils have been preserved properly in large quantities on
the surface and in the Holocene deposits (alluvial, lacustrine
and peat), there is a possibility to develop continuous,
multi-millennium and sensitive to climate tree-ring chronologies.
Such works began in the Polar Ural Mountains (Shiyatov, 1986;
Graybill and Shiyatov, 1992; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber,
Shiyatov and Cook, 1995), in the southern part of Yamal Peninsula
(Shiyatov, Surkov, 1980; Hantemirov, 1995), in Finnish Lapland
and Northern Sweden (Zetterberg, Eronen and Briffa, 1995), in
the eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula (Vaganov, Naurazbaev,
Schweingruber and Briffa, in press) and in the Lower Indigirka
River at present. Now the longest, continuous and absolute-dated
ring-width chronologies developed for the Yamal Peninsula
(spanning 3200 years) and for the Northern Scandinavia (spanning
2160 years) and the "floating" chronologies dated by the
radiocarbon method extended back 9500 and over 7000 years
respectively.

Ring-width chronologies developed from coniferous trees growing
at the polar timberline in moderate-continental and continental
regions of Siberia contain a very strong climatic signal, mainly
summer air temperatures of tree growth year (Graybill and
Shiyatov, 1992; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Cook,
1995; Hantemirov, 1995; Vaganov, Shiyatov and Mazepa, 1996).The
explained variance over the calibration and verification periods
is highest reported in the literature to date (65-70%) and it
allows to make a quantitative reconstructions of summer
temperatures. These chronologies and temperature reconstructions
will be the first to be so long, reliable, annually-resolved and
precisely-dated with known reliability across the whole of
northern Hemisphere. These reconstructions will allow to compare
and contrast the details of temperature changes at the
moderate-continental region of Yamal Peninsula with the
continental region of Taimyr Peninsula and allow modern and
predicted temperature patterns to be compared with variability
patterns of pre-industrial era.

Participants of the proposed project are the well-known
institutions which are engaged in the field of dendrochronology
and dendroclimatology and have collaborated with each other
during the last 6 years.

- The Group of Tree-Ring and Site of the Swiss Federal Institute
for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Birmensdorf,
Switzerland). The Group is currently engaged on a major programme
of densitometric and ring-width chronology development involving
many sites across the whole of the Northern Hemisphere including
sites with living trees in the polar timberline area of Russia.
This work is specifically designed to provide
climatically-sensitive data for use in large spatial climate
reconstruction work. Dr. F.H.Schweingruber, Head of the Group, is
known throughout the world for his work in wood anatomy and
dendrochronology and the development of tree-ring densitometry.
He has published extensively in different areas of wood anatomy
and tree-growth research and has authored several classic books.

- The Laboratory of Dendrochronology of the Institute of Plant
and Animal Ecology of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Ekaterinburg, Russia is one of the leading laboratory in the
field of dendrochronology in Russia. The Laboratory has an
international reputation for its work on the developing
ring-width chronologies at high latitudes and altitudes,
reconstruction of climatic conditions, developing long-term
chronologies, studying cycles in tree-ring series, using
tree-ring data for studies of the upper and polar timberlines
dynamics and forest succession. Dr. S.G.Shiyatov, Head of the
Laboratory, is one of the pioneers of dendrochronology in Russia
and has worked for more than 30 years in the Far North and
mountains of the Urals, Siberia, Far East and Middle Asia. He has
published more than 130 articles and three monographs. Dr.
Shiyatov was the first who began to collect subfossil wood in
Russia for developing long-term chronologies.

- The Laboratory of Dendrochronology of the Institute of Forest
of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia is
another leading laboratory in the field of dendrochronology in
Russia. Dr. E.A.Vaganov, Director of the Institute of Forest and
Head of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology, has an international
reputation for his work on the cell structure of wood lyers of
coniferous trees, seasonal growth variations and cambium
activity, developing simulation models of seasonal tree growth,
developing ring-width and cell chronologies, reconstructing
climatic conditions of the past using tree-ring chronologies. He
has published more than 100 articles and 5 monographs.

- The Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia,
Norwich, Great Britain is one of the world's leading research
organisation specialising in the study of climate change: climate
history, current climates, projected changes and impacts. Dr.
K.R.Briffa, Senior Research Associate at the Climatic Research
Unit, has considerable experience in climatology and with the use
of statistical methods of climate analyses and dendroclimatic
reconstruction, especially with regard to large-spatial-scale
reconstructions of climate patterns and published many articles
on the theoretical and practical aspects of dendrochronology and
dendroclimatology, and on use of paleoclimate data for
understanding current and possible future climates.

3.4 SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION

3.4.1. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Tree-ring data will be obtained from living trees and subfossil
wood of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) in western Siberia
and Gmelini larch (Larix Gmelini Pilger) in central Siberia. The
first location is situated in the southern part of Yamal
Peninsula xxx xxxx xxxxN, xxx xxxx xxxxE), the second location in the eastern
part of Taimyr Peninsula xxx xxxx xxxxN, xxx xxxx xxxxE). There is a great
many properly preserved subfossil wood in the Holocene deposits
at both locations, mainly in the alluvial and peat deposits.

The main variable measured will be ring width. This variable
reflects properly climate influences on tree growth at the polar
timberline areas of Siberia having a continental climate.

Ring-width chronologies for the last xxx xxxx xxxxyears will be
developed from the oldest living trees. Extensions to these
chronologies back further in time will be made by using subfossil
material, joined with the living material by standard crossdating
procedures. High-precision radiocarbon dates will be used for
rough dating of "floating" tree-ring chronologies.

The sampling subfossil wood and development of the Yamal's
supra-long chronology began since 1982 by the workers of the
Laboratory of Dendrochronology (Ekaterinburg). Most intensively
this work was carried out during the last five years. Now the
material already collected and measured (1800 subfossil wood
cuts) has yielded the ring-width chronology continuously spanning
the last 3200 years. However, there are also many more samples
that have been measured and have provided data, now assembled in
a number of provisionally "floating" chronologies covering much
of the period from 7000 to 1700 B.C. (based on some 45
radiocarbon dates of samples of this wood). These chronologies
separated by 50 to 500 year length gaps. There is a fair chance
that a 9000-year continuous chronology will be constructed for
this location within the span of the proposed project.

Similarly, work with a shorter history than the Yamal's research
has clearly established potential to build a chronology at least
as long in the Taimyr Peninsula where the modern polar timberline
extends to about 72830'N, most northern over the world. This work
is not so advanced as in Yamal, but the work to date suggests
that very rapid progress is likely. Samples from living and dead
trees have already been assembled at the Laboratory of
Dendrochronology (Krasnoyarsk) into the 950-year continuous
chronology. The collections from this location are not so
extensive as those made to date at Yamal (280 subfossil wood
samples), but there is an abundant supply of subfossil trees,
many with over 300 annual rings. 25 radiocarbon dates of samples
of this material suggest major phases of tree growth around 8500
B.P. and 5000 B.P. The general distribution of the radiocarbon
dates suggests that, eventually, sufficient trees can probably be
located to span the whole of the last 10000 years. It is not
expected that a continuous 10000-year ring-width chronology will
be produced within timeframe of this project. However, there are
good prospects of producing a xxx xxxx xxxxyear chronology to the
present.

3.4.2 RESEARCH RESULTS
During three years we expect to develop the continuous and
good-replicated tree-ring 9000-year larch chronology for the
Yamal Peninsula and the xxx xxxx xxxxyear larch chronology for the
Taimyr Peninsula. Using these chronologies we intend to
reconstruct and analyse a summer temperature variation at several
time scales (annual, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial) and
compare the data obtained with other high-resolution
Holocene-length proxy data (ice cores, laminated sediments,
historical documents).

The results of this project will be published primarily in the
scientific literature in Russian and English and presented at
different national and international conferences. Because of the
fundamental interdisciplinarity and collaborative interaction
within the subgroups, a number of multi-authored papers will be
produced. The individual and mean ring-width chronologies and the
reconstructions produced will be distributed to the international
scientific community through submission to the International
Tree-Ring Data Bank (Boulder, Colorado, USA) and to other
national and international institutions and data centres.

3.5 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION

3.5.1 TASK DIVISION
Dr F.H.Schweingruber (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow
and Landscape Research) will be the project co-ordinator on the
proposed project from the INTAS countries.

Dr S.G.Shiyatov (Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology) will be
the responsible scientist on the proposed project and he will
take part in collecting, dating, developing and analysing the
multi-millennial ring-width chronology at the area of Yamal
Peninsula. The next young scientists of the Institute will be
involved in the project:
Rashit M. Hantemirov, Candidate of Biological Sciences,
34 years old. He will take part in collecting, cross-dating
and analysing the material.
Alexander Yu. Surkov, technician, 30 years old. He will take part
in collecting, preparing and measuring the subfossil wood samples.

Dr E.A.Vaganov (Institute of Forest) will be the responsible
scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in
collecting, dating, developing and analysing the multi-millennial
ring-width chronology at the area of Taimyr Peninsula. The next
young scientists will be involved in the project:
Mukhtar M. Naurazbaev, junior research fellow,35 years old.
He will take part in collecting, preparing, measuring, cross-
dating and analysing the material.
Alexander V.Kirdyanov, post-graduate, 25 years old.
He will take part in data processing, density measurements,
chronology analysis.
Dmitry V.Ovchinnikov, post-graduate, 26 years old.
He will take part in cross-dating, data processing,
chronology analysis.

Dr K.R.Briffa (Climatic Research Unit) will be the responsible
scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in
analysing growth-climate relationships, developing statistical
models of tree growth, extracting climatic signal, reconstructing
and analysing climatic conditions of the remote past.

3.5.2 PLANNING
To carry-out the objectives of this proposal the workers of the
Russian laboratories will carry out an intensive collecting
subfossil wood during summers of 1xxx xxxx xxxxat two high-latitude
locations (Yamal and Taimyr peninsulas) using helicopters, boats
and ships. To finish the development of the Yamal chronology it
is necessary to collect additionally no less than xxx xxxx xxxxcuts of
subfossil wood. Much more intensive collecting (xxx xxxx xxxxcuts for
two field seasons) is needed to develop the Taimyr chronology.
All samples collected during these two years and earlier will be
measured and cross-dated at Ekaterinburg and Krasnoyarsk
laboratories until the middle of 1999.

The Russian laboratories together with the Climatic Research Unit
of the University of East Anglia during 1xxx xxxx xxxxwill be
analysing the material obtained (standardization of individual
series, development of mean chronologies, studying growth-climate
relationships, developing statistical models of tree growth,
extracting climatic signal, reconstructing and analysing climatic
conditions of the remote past). This work will be finished at the
end of 1999.

3.5.3 EQUIPMENT
Participants of the proposed project have the necessary equipment
for fieldwork, measuring equipment and compatible software.

3.5.4 SCIENTIFIC REFERENCES
Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., Shiyatov, S.G.
and Cook, E.R. Unusual twentieth-century summer warmth in a
1,000-year temperature record from Siberia. Nature, 1995, Vol.
376, 13 July, xxx xxxx xxxx.

Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., Shiyatov, S.G.,
Vaganov, E.A. Development of a North Eurasian chronology network:
Rationale and preliminary results of comparative ring-width and
densitimetric analyses in Northern Russia. Radiocarbon, 1996,
25-41.

Hantemirov, R.M. A 2,305 year tree-ring reconstruction of mean
June-July temperature deviations in the Yamal Peninsula.
Publication of the Academy of Finland,1995, 6, xxx xxxx xxxx.

Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S., Vaganov, E.A., Schweingruber, F.H.
Summer temperature variations reconstructed by tree-ring Data at
the polar timberline in Siberia. Radiocarbon, 1996, 61-70.

Vaganov, E.A., Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S. Dendroclimatic Study
in Ural-Siberian Subarctic. Novosibirsk: "Nauka", Siberian
Publishing Firm RAS, 1996, 246 pp. (in Russian).

Original Filename: 860182002.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: m.salmon@uea
Subject: from Rashit
Date: Fri Apr 4 14:26:xxx xxxx xxxx

>To: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Organization: ECOLOGY INSTITUTE
>From: "Tatiana M. Dedkova" <tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>Date: Mon, 9 Dec 96 14:19:37 +0500
>Return-Receipt-To: tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Subject: from Rashit
>Return-Receipt-To: tatm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Lines: 106
>
>Dear Keith,
>we received your letters concerning our paper for Dendrochronologia
>and three long chronologies.
>1. As regards individual ring width data of living trees from
>Yamal we would remind you that you have them. Stepan gave to you
>in England one diskette. There are data for Larix sibirica from
>three sites (KHA - from Khadyta river, 67812'N 69850'E; JAH -
>from Yahody river 67807'N 69854'E and POR - from Portsa river
>67827'N 71800'E) and for Picea obovata from two points (SCH -
>Shtshutshya river 66849'N 69850'E and KHD - from Khadyta river
>67807'N 69854'E).
>2. We would be very gratefull if you can do some corrections and
>additions in the paper for Dendrochronologia. We did not quite
>understand what we have to do on missing rings? Just enumerate
>years when missing rings occur? If so, these are following years:
>
> Year absent % ind % Year absent % ind %
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 31
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 31
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 33
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 38
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 67
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 12
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 10
>-1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 14
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 34
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 12
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 30
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 25
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 61
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 59
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 8
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 36
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 15
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 44
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 18
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 58
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 18
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 53
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 8
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 14
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 38
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 9
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 20
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 24
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 30
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 10
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxliving
> -xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 16 6%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 16 6%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 10%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 15%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 20 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 21 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 21 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 73%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 5%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 64%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxx xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 27%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof 22 55%
> xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 66
> l i v i n g
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 38
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 47
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 31
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 49
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 21
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 39
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 50
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 29
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 28
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 20
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 32
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 46
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 45
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 46
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 40
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 102
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 50
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxof xxx xxxx xxxx% 40
>
>We have to note that frequency of missing rings on increment
>cores of living trees higher, because on samples of subfossil
>trees we try to find this kind of rings on whole disc.
>Some periods are notable for missing rings: xxx xxxx xxxxBC, 882 BC,
>143 AD, xxx xxxx xxxxAD (especially 640 AD), xxx xxxx xxxxAD, 1453 AD
>and beginning of 1800th AD.
>3. Stepan ask what about book by Bailey?
>Best wishes,
>Rashit
>
>

Original Filename: 876860264.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Ben Santer <bsanter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: ritson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, covey@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tbarnett-ul@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: (Fwd) Re: Your Holocene paper with Barnett et al 6.xxx xxxx xxxxpage 255
Date: Tue, 14 Oct 1997 16:17:xxx xxxx xxxx

Dear Dr. Ritson,

Your email to Phil Jones suggests that there are serious discrepancies between
the ECHAM1/LSG power spectrum that I computed for the 1995 Barnett et al.
Holocene paper and the ECHAM1/LSG power spectrum that Curt Covey posted on the
WWW. This is not the case. At the time that Tim Barnett, Phil Jones, Keith
Briffa and I performed the research that is the subject of the Holocene paper,
only 600 years of control run data were available from ECHAM1/LSG. This is
stated on page 256 of the Holocene paper. The first ca. xxx xxxx xxxxyears of this
control integration incorporated a large, non-linear climate drift component.
This was manifested both in globally-averaged temperature and in other climate
variables (see Santer et al., 1995, JGR 100, 10,693-10,725).

Prior to computing the spectrum I removed the overall (i.e., 600-year)
least-squares linear trend. There is still considerable low-frequency variance
in the residuals, in part (but not wholly) due to the non-linearity of the
drift component in the first few centuries. This residual drift explains some
portion of the GFDL-versus-ECHAM1 power discrepancies at timescales of >100
years.

The CMIP project received data from MPI well after the completion of the
research described in the Barnett et al. paper. At that time, I believe that
1,250 years of ECHAM1/LSG control run data were made available. My
understanding is that Curt did not use the first (drift-contaminatedxxx xxxx xxxxyears
of the ECHAM1/LSG control run when he computed the ECHAM1 spectrum displayed on
the CMIP WWW page. HIs analysis relied on the last 1,000 years of the data.

Not surprisingly, neglecting the first 250 years makes a big difference to the
computed spectrum. This is particularly apparent at low frequencies, and also
in the variance ratio (between periods of 300 and 2 years) that you compute.

I hope this clarifies things. Should you still have residual concerns about our
method of spectral analysis (which is standard and follows Jenkins and Watts),
I'd be happy to provide you with a copy of the program that was used to
generate the spectra.

Sincerely,

Ben Santer


--- Forwarded mail from Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>

Date: Tue, 14 Oct 1997 10:42:29 +0100
To: ritson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
From: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Your Holocene paper with Barnett et al 6.xxx xxxx xxxxpage 255
Cc: bsanter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx


David,
I can only suggest you contact Ben Santer who did the
analysis for Table 1. Ben is generally very busy - his
email is bsanter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx .

Cheers
Phil





At 01:10 PM 10/13/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:
> Two quick questions about your Fig 1, power spectrum of global mean
>averaged temperature.
>
>1) You don't provide units. I would have expected that
>
> <DT**2> Integral(G(f).df)
>
>would be the normalization with G(f) being the power spectrum and DT the
>RMS variance. Obviously this is not what you used. What are your units?
>
>2) I checked your ECHAM1 results for the ratio of the power spectrum at
>a period of 300 years to the value at 2 years against the posted CMIP
>LLNL power spectrum on the WWW. Aside from units the ratios of CMIP
>and yours appear to differ by a factor of the order of 6. As you are both
>using the same data base(?) and Curtis Covey of LLNL said he used Ben Santers
>program for power spectra this discrepancy seems a litle strange. Who is
right
>or are you both right?
>
>I would check it myself in a matter of day(s) but getting model data bases
>is a bureacratic nightmare.
>
>Dave
>
Dr Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
592xxx xxxx xxxxSchool of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0)
1xxx xxxx xxxxUniversity of East Anglia
Norwich
Email p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx NR4 7TJ
UK

----------------------------------------------------------------------------




---End of forwarded mail from Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>

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From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re:
Date: Tue Nov 4 09:42:xxx xxxx xxxx

Tom
please do. Actually I would be interested to know whether Malcolm mentioned these results to Dave as he was in Krasnoyarsk a few months ago when I showed this stuff. I will be over in New York in a few weeks to discuss with Ed the possibility of putting in an NSF/NERC proposal to look at the tree biomass change question. Also,the initial impetus to redo this stuff was as part of a NERC project we have running in colllaboration with Ian Woodward - i which we are inputting high resolution climate data to Dolly to assess the roll of such variability on carbon uptake
cheers
Keith

At 02:54 PM 11/3/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:
>Keith,
>
>Malcolm Hughes was here on Friday to see Dave Schimel about precisely the
>issue you raise. Dave wants to see if he can validate his ecosystem model
>using tree ring data. Sounds as if you already have the data to do this.
>Can I show your e-mail to Dave?
>
>Tom
>
>On Mon, 3 Nov 1997, Keith Briffa wrote:
>
>>
>> Tom
>> thanks for the info. Actually this is a chance for me to to mention that
>> we have for the last few months at least, been reworking the idea of
>> looking in the Schweingruber network data for evidence of increasing tree
>> growth and hence ,potentially at least, evidence of changing tree(read
>> biomass) uptake of carbon.
>> The results are dramatic - not to say earth shattering because they
>> demonstrate major time-dependent changes - but changes that are consistent
>> in different areas of the network. We have regionalised over 350 site
>> collections , each with ring width and density data , age-banded the data
>> so that we look only at relative growth in similar ages of trees through
>> time and recombined the standardisd curves to produce growth changes in
>> each region. Basically growth is roughly constant (except for relatively
>> small climate variablity forcing) from 1700 to about 1850. It then
>> increases linearly by about up until about 1950 after which time young ( up
>> to 50 year old) basal area explodes but older trees remain constant . The
>> implication is a major increase in carbon uptake before the mid 20th
>> century - temperatue no doubt partly to blame but much more likely to be
>> nitrate/Co2 . Equally important though is the levelling off of carbon
>> uptake in the later 20th century. This levelling is coincident with the
>> start of a density decline - we have a paper coming out in Nature
>> documenting the decline . In relative terms (i.e. by comparison with
>> increasing summer temperatures) the decline is represented in the ring
>> width and basal area data as a levelling off in the long-timescale inrease
>> ( which you only see when you process the data as we have). The density
>> data do not show the increase over and above what you expect from
>> temperature forcing.
>> I have been agonising for months that these results are not some
>> statistical artifact of the analysis method but we can't see how. For just
>> two species (spruce in the western U.S. Great Basin area and larch in
>> eastern Siberia) we can push the method far enough to get an indication of
>> much longer term growth changes ( from about 1400) and the results confirm
>> a late 20th century apparent fertilization! The method requires
>> standardizing (localized mean subtraction and standard deviation division)
>> by species/age band so we reconstruct relative (e.g. per cent change) only .
>> We have experimented with integrating the different signals in basal area
>> and density(after extracting intra ring ring width and density data where
>> available) within a 'flat mass' measure which shows a general late 20th
>> century increase - but whether this incorporates a defensible relative
>> waiting on the different components (and what the relative carbon
>> components are) is debatable. We now need to make some horrible simplistic
>> assumptions about absolute carbon in these (relatively small) components of
>> the total biomass carbon pool and imlpications for terrestrial and total
>> carbon fluxes over the last few hundred years - and beyond! Without these
>> implications we will have difficulty convincing Nature that this work is
>> mega important.
>> There are problems with explaining and interpreting these data but they are
>> by far the best produced for assessing large scale carbon-cycle-relevant
>> vegetation changes - at least as regards well-dated continous trends. I
>> will send you a couple of Figures ( a tiny sample of the literally hundreds
>> we have) which illustrate some of this. I would appreciate your reaction.
>> Obviously this stuff is very hush hush till I get a couple of papers
>> written up on this. We are looking at a moisture sensive network of data at
>> the moment to see if any similar results are produced when
>> non-temperature-sensitive data are used. You would expect perhaps a greater
>> effect in such data if Co2 acts on the water use efficiency .
>> At 09:30 AM 11/3/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:
>> >Dear Keith,
>> >
>> >Look at Tremblay et al. GRL 24, 2xxx xxxx xxxx(1997) and Dyke et al. Arctic 50,
>> >xxx xxxx xxxx(1997). These papers deal with driftwood in the Arctic over the past
>> >9000 years. They note that genera can be distinguished, but not species
>> >Hence, they can't say where the wood comes from, North America versus
>> >Europe. Surely cross-dating could do this? May be worth getting in touch
>> >with Dyke et al.
>> >
>> >Tom
>> >
>> --
>> Dr. Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia,
>> Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom
>> Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>>
>
>
> **********************************************************
> *Tom M.L. Wigley *
> *Senior Scientist *
> *National Center for Atmospheric Research *
> *P.O. Box 3000 *
> *Boulder, CO 80xxx xxxx xxxx *
> *USA *
> *Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx *
> *Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx *
> *E-mail: wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx *
> **********************************************************
>
>

Original Filename: 879803996.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails

From: Richard Baker <r.baker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Finalising PRAPROC! 21st November 1997
Date: Mon, 17 Nov 1997 16:59:xxx xxxx xxxx
Reply-to: r.baker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Mike

> I hope you had my comments from a few weeks ago.

Yes, sorry I've taken so long to reply.

> 1. Overheads: we charge EU projects 20% overheads and these are totally
> acceptable

Yes, you are quite right.

> 2. Budget: I will need to redraft our budget. Please tell me estimated
> start data and for how long the project will run. I envisage our budget
> remaining in the bracket 60-70k ECU

I guess we are looking to April 1998 at the very earliest. I heard that
some SMT projects take up to 2 years to get going even after they've
been approved due to wrangles over the budget. We have 1 million ECU for
3 years....so some project budgets will have to be cut. Yours looks
fine.


> 3. Workplan: I am assuming the basic climate tasks remain pretty much as
> before, namely:
>
> a) 10' gridded monthly climate data for Europe for 1xxx xxxx xxxxlinked to a weather
> generator that will yield daily data. Key variables: precip., tmin, tmax,
> vapour pressure, sunshine/radiation, wind, wet days, frost days.

Yes, that'll do nicely!

> b) for the world a 0.5deg gridded dataset for 1xxx xxxx xxxxat monthly timesteps

Excellent!

> c) what was decided about very high resolution climate surfaces for 1-2
> regions?
> This was in the original proposal but got dropped I think. Adding this back
> to our work plan would involve extra time and hence resources. How
> important are
> these test 1km (?) resolution datasets?

We've had a problem contacting the Spaniards which is a bit of a blow
because they gave a nice geospatial feel to the project. The Norwegians
are proposing to conduct a high resolution study near Oslo..I think
they'll be interpolating locally collected data. I'll send you their
proposal as soon as I can get it into a little better shape but, in
principle, I think it would be best if you could, at this stage, just
stick to the low resolution work.

> 4. Other EU projects: I suggest you mention my involement in CLIVARA
> which is
> funded through the Environment/CLimate programme of DGXII. This is running
> from
> 1xxx xxxx xxxxand is concerned with mapping and modelling agriculture across the
> EU under 1xxx xxxx xxxxconditions and also under future climate change.
> Co-ordinated
> by Environmental Change Unit at University of Oxford. let me know if you want
> more info. on this.

A brief update to your "partner information" would be great.

> Can you confirm for me which forms I need to get completed? Do you
> have copies to send me or should I get them from here.

I'm putting some in the post for you.

> I shall not be able to be with you in York on Friday, but I am here
> all this week if there are questions.

many thanks..there are sure to be some.

All the very best

Richard

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From: Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: jan.goudriaan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, grassl_h@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Klaus Hasselmann <klaus.hasselmann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jill Jaeger <jaeger@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, rector@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, oriordan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, uctpa84@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, john@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mparry@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pier.vellinga@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: ATTENTION. Invitation to influence Kyoto.
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 1997 11:52:xxx xxxx xxxx(MST)
Reply-to: Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Cc: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, t.mitchell@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Dear Eleven,

I was very disturbed by your recent letter, and your attempt to get
others to endorse it. Not only do I disagree with the content of
this letter, but I also believe that you have severely distorted the
IPCC "view" when you say that "the latest IPCC assessment makes a
convincing economic case for immediate control of emissions." In contrast
to the one-sided opinion expressed in your letter, IPCC WGIII SAR and TP3
review the literature and the issues in a balanced way presenting
arguments in support of both "immediate control" and the spectrum of more
cost-effective options. It is not IPCC's role to make "convincing cases"
for any particular policy option; nor does it. However, most IPCC readers
would draw the conclusion that the balance of economic evidence favors the
emissions trajectories given in the WRE paper. This is contrary to your
statement.

This is a complex issue, and your misrepresentation of it does you a
dis-service. To someone like me, who knows the science, it is
apparent that you are presenting a personal view, not an informed,
balanced scientific assessment. What is unfortunate is that this will not
be apparent to the vast majority of scientists you have contacted. In
issues like this, scientists have an added responsibility to keep their
personal views separate from the science, and to make it clear to others
when they diverge from the objectivity they (hopefully) adhere to in their
scientific research. I think you have failed to do this.

Your approach of trying to gain scientific credibility for your personal
views by asking people to endorse your letter is reprehensible. No
scientist who wishes to maintain respect in the community should ever
endorse any statement unless they have examined the issue fully
themselves. You are asking people to prostitute themselves by doing just
this! I fear that some will endorse your letter, in the mistaken belief
that you are making a balanced and knowledgeable assessment of the science
-- when, in fact, you are presenting a flawed view that neither accords
with IPCC nor with the bulk of the scientific and economic literature on
the subject.

Let me remind you of the science. The issue you address is one of the
timing of emissions reductions below BAU. Note that this is not the same
as the timing of action -- and note that your letter categorically
addresses the former rather than the latter issue. Emissions reduction
timing is epitomized by the differences between the Sxxx and WRExxx
pathways towards CO2 concentration stabilization. It has been clearly
demonstrated in the literature that the mitigation costs of following an
Sxxx pathway are up to five times the cost of following an equivalent
WRExxx pathway. It has also been shown that there is likely to be an
equal or greater cost differential for non-Annex I countries, and that the
economic burden in Annex I countries would fall disproportionately on
poorer people.

Furthermore, since there has been no credible analysis of the benefits
(averted impacts) side of the equation, it is impossible to assess fully
the benefits differential between the Sxxx and WRExxx stabilization
profiles. Indeed, uncertainties in predicting the regional details of
future climate change that would arise from following these pathways, and
the even greater uncertainties that attend any assessment of the impacts
of such climate changes, preclude any credible assessment of the relative
benefits. As shown in the WRE paper (Nature v. 379, pp. xxx xxxx xxxx), the
differentials at the global-mean level are so small, at most a few tenths
of a degree Celsius and a few cm in sea level rise and declining to
minuscule amounts as the pathways approach the SAME target, that it is
unlikely that an analysis of future climate data could even distinguish
between the pathways. Certainly, given the much larger noise at the
regional level, and noting that even the absolute changes in many
variables at the regional level remain within the noise out to 2030 or
later, the two pathways would certainly be indistinguishable at the
regional level until well into the 21st century.

The crux of this issue is developing policies for controlling greenhouse
gas emissions where the reductions relative to BAU are neither too much,
too soon (which could cause serious economic hardship to those who are
most vulnerable, poor people and poor countries) nor too little, too late
(which could lead to future impacts that would be bad for future
generations of the same groups). Our ability to quantify the economic
consequences of "too much, too soon" is far better than our ability to
quantify the impacts that might arise from "too little, too late" -- to
the extent that we cannot even define what this means! You appear to be
putting too much weight on the highly uncertain impacts side of the
equation. Worse than this, you have not even explained what the issues
are. In my judgment, you are behaving in an irresponsible way that does
you little credit. Furthermore, you have compounded your sin by actually
putting a lie into the mouths of innocents ("after carefully examining the
question of timing of emissions reductions, we find the arguments against
postponement to be more compelling"). People who endorse your letter will
NOT have "carefully examined" the issue.

When scientists color the science with their own PERSONAL views or make
categorical statements without presenting the evidence for such
statements, they have a clear responsibility to state that that is what
they are doing. You have failed to do so. Indeed, what you are doing is,
in my view, a form of dishonesty more subtle but no less egregious than
the statements made by the greenhouse skeptics, Michaels, Singer et al. I
find this extremely disturbing.

Tom Wigley


On Tue, 11 Nov 1997, Tim Mitchell wrote:

> Reference: Statement of European Climate Scientists on Actions to Protect
> Global Climate
>
> Dear Colleague,
>
> Attached at the end of this email is a Statement, the purpose of which is
> to bolster or increase governmental and public support for controls of
> emissions of greenhouse gases in European and other industrialised
> countries in the negotiations during the Kyoto Climate Conference in
> December 1997. The Statement was drafted by a number of prominent European
> scientists concerned with the climate issue, 11 of whom are listed after
> the Statement and who are acting as formal sponsors of the Statement.
>
> ***** The 11 formal sponsors are: *****
>
> Jan Goudriaan Hartmut Grassl Klaus Hasselmann Jill J

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From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Stepan,Eugene
Subject: papers/Holocene/etc.
Date: Fri Dec 5 16:12:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: fritz.schweingruber@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

Dear Stepan and Eugene
I don't know whether you have received your copies of the 1996 issue of Dendrochronologia yet but in case not I have seen the issue and it looks very good. Your two papers on Yamal and Taimyr are there and they both look excellent. Stepan I received receipt for money and the data and photographs your sent . I am very grateful for all . Thankyou. Again I can only say sorry about the problems of money transfer.
The first thing I wish to say is that I know we have been unsuccessful with our recent applications to INTAS and COPERNICUS . However , if you agree , I would like to resubmit a new proposal to INTAS in March to continue the development of the long chronologies. I will write it and stress the success todate and the need to carry on the formal collaboration. What is your joint opinion on this?
The Nature paper on the decline story is now officially accepted and I still hope it may come out before Christmas or at least shortly afterwards. I will be writing a story about increasing basal area on the long term as I showed in Krasnoyarsk and I also intend to submit this to Science or Nature and you will be coauthors on that. We also have done a lot of work on the growing season degree day reconstructions and will write up another joint paper on this soon - but I am trying to get the ringwidth data produced by you two incorporated with the ringwidth data produced from the density measurements - because Stepan told me these may be longer and anyway they will help the quality of the ringwidth data anyway. You may therefore get some messages or questions from Harry (Ian Harris) who works for me asking about the locations. Please be patient and try to help him with this if necessay.
Unfortunately, next year I have several major meetings to attend and present our joint results. Each of these meetings is very important. In March, I must give a major review paper at the PAGES open Science meeting in London. This must cover all dendro - or at least the best of it - which of course includes our own work! Early next year I will ask for the full data sets as they then stand, for Yamal and Taimyr so that I can try restandardising and calibrating against regional mean climate data. If there are not likely to be more data than I already have , can you let me know. Also in March, I will go to Copenhagen for an European Community meeting of project leaders of projects dealing with Arctic climates. This is the sort of meeting I must attend and put on a good show if we hope to get further funding in 1999 onwards. Later in the year there is a big climate conference here at which I must give a review of dendroclimatic research.
By January , we are supposed to exchange data within the project for possible research - but with the proviso that nothing can be written about work using others data without full collaboration and coauthorship. Are you both willing to let your chronologies as published be released to the rest of the group at that time?
Finally, I have got permission (provided I can find the money to pay for it) to have a special issue of The Holocene dedicated to the results (todate) of the ADVANCE-10K project. It will contain a series of major articles describing each piece of the work and I wish these to include large ,detailed papers on the Yamal and Taimyr chronologies , and perhaps a separate paper on the Northern Urals work. I hope to get a firm committment now from Both of you that you will be prepared to do this. I would be happy to help with specific ideas and some analysis and plotting of all Figures and retyping if you wish. The provisional deadline for the production of the papers would be late summer or autumn at the earliest.
I am of course very keen to continue our collaboration and next year as soon as I know more about the details of the European Community Framework 5 plan ( which , incidently now contains a heading 'Global Change') I will be putting together another application. I will try my best to include you both as full partners in this if it is at all possible.
After the Krasnoyarsk meeting I heard nothing about the final decision regarding an application for a Transect Office in Krasnoyarsk ( at some time someone had asked me would I coauthor an application) . Has this idea died? Also will there be a proceedings book arising out of the meeting ? Do I have to prepare something?
Eugene, I have a revised version of the paper you gave me to read some time ago about the cell growth model work. Do you intend me to send this to Dendrochronologia or just send the annotated manuscript back to you? I have a question about meaning that held me up and needs your answer - can I fax you something?
Finally , - I wish you each and everyone in your laboratories and all your families the very best christmas and new year .
Keith