The below are part of a series of alleged emails from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, released on 20 November 2009.
Original Filename: 835819980.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: km_king@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
To: F028@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: URGENT RESPONSE NEEDED - Early Detection Work
Date: Wed, 26 Jun 1996 16:xxx xxxx xxxx(PDT)
Dr. Jones,
I am contacting you on behalf of Dave Bader and Tim Barnett regarding a couple
action items in support of early detection on climate change. Based upon the
anticipated award for NOAA support during fiscal year 1997 on climate change
data and detection, DOE has authorized the Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory (PNNL) to utilize existing funding through 9/30/96 to conduct a
meeting of the experts, and to begin preliminary investigations.
PNNL would like to place a contract with you as soon as possible to provide
support through 9/30/96. In order to place a contract with you, I need to
submit a statement of work and signed cost proposal to our Contracts
Department. If you could please fax this to me as soon as possible on (509)
xxx xxxx xxxx, it would be greatly appreciated.
I thought your activity my look something like the following (feel free to
change/edit):
Scope of Work
Dr. Phillip Jones shall begin initial work in support of the pilot project
identified in the Early Detection of Climate Trends report. He shall prepare
for and participate in a meeting on greenhouse signal detection, to be held in
Washington, DC on September 17-18, 1996. In addition, Dr. Jones shall conduct
a preliminary analysis ?????? (please provide input)
Deliverables
Prepare for and participate in 9/17-18, 1996 meetings on greenhouse signal.
Provide a summary report on the preliminary analysis of ?????? on or
before September 30, 1996.
Also, for your information the current plan for the meeting is for September 17-
18, 1996 at the Courtyard by Marriott - Greenbelt, 6301 Golden Triangle Drive,
Greenbelt, MD. (3xxx xxxx xxxx, fax: (3xxx xxxx xxxx. Government room rate is
$89/day.
When you provide your cost estimate, it would be appreciated if you could
provide your hourly rate, in addition to travel estimates for the September
meeting. To expedite the process, it is very helpful if can include
documentation to support your hourly rate.
Please feel free to contact me with any questions. My phone number is xxx xxxx xxxx
2861, fax is xxx xxxx xxxx.
Thank you,
Karen
Original Filename: 845217169.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Fred Pearce <100713.1311@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: keith briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: new sciwentist feature
Date: 13 Oct 96 10:32:49 EDT
Keith,
This is my first draft of the dendrochronology feature. I wonder if you have time to go through look. I hope you recognise the quotes, but please makes changes if they think they misrepresent you. And if you can answer any of the questions in square brackets that would be most useful.
Ideally, can you not change the full text but make notes, remarks, answers referring to it.
As ever, haste is of the essence.
Regards
--Fred Pearce
It was one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears. Mount Changbai [correct?] in China blasted 50 cubic kilometres of rock into the air and deluged much of the far east with hot pumice. Radiocarbon dated the explosion at early in the 11th century. But it took Keith Briffa, sitting in his office in Norwich and juggling data from tree rings round the world, to pinpoint the precise year: 1032.
Volcanoes scatter the atmosphere with dust that deflects sunlight and cools the world beneath for a year or more. And when the world cools, trees grow less. That year's growth rings are smaller and less dense.
By analysing those rings, Briffa and his colleagues at the Climatic Research Unit in the University of East Anglia have charted these sudden and dramatic shocks to the climate system, from Changbai to Pinatubo in 1991. Larches in the forests of the northern Urals, for instance, have revealed that 1032 was the coldest summer there in a thousand years, more than 6 degrees cooler than the long-term average. Four of the five coldest summers in Europe and North America during the past four centuries (1601, 1641, 1669, and 1912) coincided with known major volcanic events. "We are pretty certain the fifth one, in 1699, did too," says Briffa. "But the geologists haven't found the volcano yet."
It is clever work. But the science of tree-ring analysis, dendrochronology, is more than just a party piece for botanists. Every ring in every tree round the world contains a memory of the climate the year it was formed. Reading these rings holds the potential, Briffa believes, to answer one of the most vital questions of our time: has human activity started to warm the planet?
With colleagues in laboratories and field stations from Dublin to eastern Siberia, he has within the past year [correct?] begun an attempt to construct a history, year by year, of temperatures across northern Europe and Asia over the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears, right back to the waning of the last ice age. The tam, funded by the European Union, hope to help show whether the warming seen across the planet in the past century, and especially since around 1980, is within the limits of normal natural variability, or the start of man-made global warming.
For climatologists, the search for an irrefutable "sign" of anthropogenic warming has assumed an almost Biblical intensity. The leading figures of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), claim that, in all probability, they have seen it. Last summer [ed: 1996], the IPCC's scientific working group, chaired by former UK Meteorological Office boss Sir John Houghton, concluded that "the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate". But it is like the "balance of evidence" suggesting BSE causes CJD. The judgment is far from "beyond reasonable doubt". The case remains "not proven".
Many researchers most intimately involved in the search are still far from sure how the probabilities balance. And some of the sharpest concerns are coming from the places where the original early warnings of global warming emerged in the mid-1980s. Places such as Briffa's base at the Climatic Research Unit in Norwich, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California.
Few investigators doubt that the world has warmed recently. Nor that the enhanced "greenhouse effect" of pollution from gases such as carbon dioxide, will warm the planet. But in the past five years, climate researchers have growing increasingly aware of how little they really know about the natural variability from which they must pick out the "signal" of human influence.
One prominent IPCC researcher concerned about this gap in knowledge is Simon Tett from the Hadley Centre for climate modelling at the Meteorological Office, home to one of the world's five leading global circulation models, capable of recreating a mathematical version of how the atmosphere works and of running simulations of climatic changes over decades or even centuries. He says that "in the past, our estimates of natural variability have been based on climate models." But this autumn [date?], he says, those estimates have been thrown into turmoil by a paper published in the journal The Holocene. In it, Tim Barnett of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, part of the University of California at San Diego, compared model estimates of natural temperature fluctuations over the past 400 years with the best evidence from the real world -- from instruments in the past century and "proxy data", such as Briffa's tree rings, from before that.
The result was bad news for the modellers. The two models examined -- one German, the other American -- generated a natural variability of around 0.1 degree C per century. This was less than half that revealed in the proxy data. "Of course we don't have to believe the proxy data. They certainly have problems attached to them. But my belief is that they both models, and proxy data too, underestimate real variability," says Barnett
The models' error was not, perhaps, too surprising. As Barnett points out, they do not include vital "forcing" mechanisms that alter temperature, such as solar cycles and volcanic eruptions. Nor can they yet mimic the strength of the largest year-on-year variability in the natural system, the El Nino oscillation in the Pacific Ocean, which has a global impact on climate.
Nonetheless, the findings should serve as a warning, Barnett says, that "the current models cannot be used in rigorous tests for anthropogenic signals in the real world". If they are they "might lead us to believe that an anthropogenic signal had been found when, in fact, that may not be the case."
Barnett knows how easily this can happen. He was a lead author for a critical chapter in the last IPCC scientific assessment, which investigated "the detection of climate change and attribution of causes". It formulated the IPCC case that the evidence points towards a human influence on climate, but it warned repeatedly that great uncertainties remained. "We wrote a long list of caveats in that chapter," says Barnett. "We got a lot of static from within IPCC, from people who wanted to water down and delete some of those caveats. We had to work very hard to keep them all in." Even so, when the findings were first leaked to the New York Times, it was under the headline "Scientists finally confirm human role in global warming".
Suggestive though the evidence may be, Barnett and his co-authors insist that the uncertainties, especially concerning natural variability, have to be answered. And so, suddenly, the modellers are queuing at Briffa's door to find out what his tree-ring data shows about the real world beyond the computer simulations. "Five years ago, climate modellers wanted nothing to do with the palaeo community," says Briffa with a grin. "But now they realise that they need our data. We can help them to define natural variability." He has already collaborated with Barnett. Tett paid his first visit to the dendrochronology lab in November [1996].
And so to the forests of Europe and Asia where, over the next [how many?] years Briffa will coordinate the work of colleagues in a dozen countries who hope to dramatically increase the available proxy data on past climate change. Much of the best data so far has come from the forests round Lake Tornetrask, on the northern border of Sweden, deep inside the Arctic Circle. This is near the northern limit for Scots pine, a place where their growth rate of the trees can be massively altered by small perturbations in summer temperatures. The result is dramatic differences in the thickness and density of tree rings.
The head of this work is Professor W [full first name?] Karlen [ed: acute on e], a geographer at the University of Stockholm, who over many years has taken cores from living trees and from logs and stumps hauled from old peat bogs. Despite the harsh climate, there are living trees here up to 600 years old. And the chronology can be extended ever further by analysing the dead trees. So far the climate reconstruction is complete for more than 1400 years before the present; the aim now is to extent it up to 8000 years.
The best data, says Briffa, comes from analysing both ring width and the maximum density of wood in each ring. By firing X-rays through the wood, researchers can now analyse the density of rings as little as 30 microns across -- the equivalent of a tree's girth growing by a centimetre every century. The growth of cell walls late in the growing season creates the densest wood and, says Briffa, "appears to depend directly on the average mean temperature".
Even so, ring growth is a product of many factors, including the genetics of the tree, past climate, the age of the tree and soil moisture. The relationships between ring growth and summer temperature are not a precise. But comparisons between the recent rings and known climatic data show that the rings can capture at least half of the summer temperature variability.
The temperature graphs produced at Tornetrask show "pronounced variability on all timescales, from year-on-year variations right up to century-on-century," says Briffa. On the longer timescales, for instance, they show 20 major cooling periods during the past two millenia, including long spells between 500 and 850, between 1100 and 1350 and between 1580 and 1750, the little ice age. There were also long warm spells between 900 and 1100, known as the medieval warm period, and 1360 to 1560. [ed: show graph from NERC paper].
Further back, early results suggest a strong warm era from 4000 to 3300 BC, and a cool period ending around 5070 BC. But there are intriguing gaps, for which no tree rings can be found. These, says Briffa, "suggest some major calamity that destroyed trees. Volcanoes, perhaps, or a rapid rise in the water tables." A 19-year gap between 1130 and 1111 BC, for instance, coincides with volcanic ash showing up in Greenland ice.
"What all this means," says Briffa, "is that the old image of the xxx xxxx xxxxyears since the end of the last ice age -- the Holocene era -- as climatically tranquil looks increasingly inaccurate." Hence the intense interest in the EU project, which will attempt to reconstruct those xxx xxxx xxxxyears of climate right across northern Europe and Asia, from Ireland to the Sea of Okhotsk, from the borders of Mongolia to shores of the Arctic Ocean.
During the past summer, helicopters flying low over the tundra have spotted logs in hundreds of small lakes in the Tornetrask region of northern Sweden. Karlen has donned his diving suit to help remove samples of timber from the freezing waters [did he?]. In northern Finland, local diving clubs picked some 3000 samples from lakes.
In the Arctic wastes of northern Siberia, a major survey is being conducted on the Taimyr peninsula, the largest stretch of frozen tundra in Eurasia and far north of today's tree line. There are well-preserved logs buried in river sediments here that grew between 5000 and 8000 years ago. On the Yamal Peninsula, just east of the Ural mountains on the shores of the Arctic Ocean, wood dug from the permafrost grew in conditions so cold that some summers temperatures never exceeded the threshold for growth of about 5 degrees C, so no growth rings formed. Nonetheless Yamal is the only site so far found that yields tree rings right through a gap at 300 BC. "Interestingly, the Yamal rings show this to have been the coldest period in the entire run," says Briffa.
Other, less detailed, surveys are being carried out across the whole of the north of the two continents. And this winter the timber is being analysed at laboratories in Copenhagen and Birmensdorf -- the Swiss home of Fritz Schweingruber, one of the world's top tree-ring analysts. The project will also carry out new analysis on the large numbers of samples of ancient oak already stored in laboratories in Ireland, Britain, Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and Sweden. The oak has been dragged from bogs and river beds, or liberated from archaeological sites and even the beams of old houses over the past 30 years.
"There is a massive amount of data on existing European oak rings. But much of it was done in the 1970s, and then not updated," says Briffa. One of Britain's biggest collections, at Sotterley Park near Lowestoft in Suffolk [Keith: who runs this?], has ring data going back to 1580. "But it stops in the 1980s, missing the recent major droughts. We have got to update that information."
Already, the first long data sets are starting to emerge from Siberia. Last summer [ed: 13 July 1995], Briffa, Schweingruber and Stepan Shiyatov of the Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology at Ekaterunburg in the Russian Urals published a paper on "unusual 20th-century summer warmth in a 1000-year temperature record from Siberia". A complete tree-ring chronology from AD 914, pieced together from larches on the Yamal peninsula, suggested that average summer temperatures since 1901 have been higher than for any similar length of time during the chronology. It estimated that from 1600, the depth of the little ice age, to the present day there has been a 1.14 degrees C warming. The first eight decades of the 20th century were 0.13 degrees C warmer than the next warmest period, nine centuries before in1202-91.
The chronology also showed that Europe's "little ice age" extended east of the Urals, but that the medieval warm period did not. But these long trends disguise sharp short-term anomalies. The 11th century seems to have been a particularly turbulent time in the Urals. 1032, the year of the Changbai eruption, yielded the coldest summer in a thousand years. But the following year was the second warmest of the millenium, at 2.11 degrees above the mean.
Tree rings are not the only source of proxy temperature data. Layers of ice laid down annually in permanent ice sheets, such as those in Greenland and Antarctica, carry a temperature record in the isotopic composition of the ice. Corals also have a temperature imprint, and even sediments on continental shelves can be mined for climate information. The most work, so far, has been done on ice sheets. American and European researchers in the Greenland Ice Sheet Project (GISP), for instance, have drilled for 3 kilometres into the ice pack, going back more than xxx xxxx xxxxyears. Besides plotting the course of the last ice age, they have found evidence of constant climate shifts during the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears.
Briffa says tree rings and ice cores "complement each other, focusing best at different timescales." Tree rings show annual and decade-to-decade variations very clearly. But they do not go back so far, and are not so good at spotting change from millenium to millenium. Ring analysis seems to smooth out long-term trends, probably because trees slowly adapt to these changes, disguising them." On the other hand, ice-core data shows up long-term trends very clearly, but is poor at showing single-year changes. The melting and refreezing of ice in the surface of ice packs means that the ice from individual years tends to mingle together.
The patterns of temperature change revealed by these different methods will probably always remain too fragmented to reveal unambiguous trends in global average temperatures. But this may not matter. "Frankly, global averages are not central to the issue of attributing climate change," says Barnett. "What will ultimately prove whether or not we are altering the climate will be the patterns of temperature change -- geographical patterns, seasonal patterns and vertical patterns." It is not how much it warms, but where, that will be vital.
Under the IPCC umbrella, Barnett and Phil Jones of the CRU have formed a small "detections group", to look for these tell-tale patterns. "We are systematically looking at the patterns, past and present, of all the main forcings on climate," Barnett says. They will investigate how the world's climate systems respond to volcanoes, to changes in the ocean circulation, to solar cycles and so on. "Then we will compare those patterns with what we are seeing today. What we hope is that the current patterns of temperature change prove distinctive, quite different from the patterns of natural variability in the past." And if that turns out to be the case, he says, "we will be able to close down this issue of attribution, perhaps within three to five years."
Here, the climate models will again come into play. If current climate change also accords with what the models predict from global warming, then the "hand of man" will indeed look to be on the planet's thermostat.
The models all suggest that anthropogenic global warming will show a very distinctive pattern. For instance, they predict that anthropogenic warming will be greatest in the northern latitudes of the great continental land masses, such as Eurasia. And that makes the finding of Briffa's team that summer temperatures in northern Siberia are higher than for a millenium potentially extremely important. And the prospect of further data from this region to confirm that finding so intriguing.
Briffa grins at the prospect. "The trend seems to be accelerating. We are getting reports back from Stepan, our man in the Urals, that it was warmer this spring on the Yamal peninsula there than ever before, and tree growth has been absolutely fantastic. It is a major warming, like nothing seen there for a thousand years -- and it is what the climate models predict." Caution prevails, but the elusive pattern of man-made global warming may just be emerging amid the larch groves on the sunny hills of northern Siberia.
ends
Original Filename: 857677215.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Eugene Vaganov <evag@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: from Vaganov
Date: Thu, 6 Mar 97 14:40:15 +0000 (KRS)
06.03.97
fAJL partid.txt
2.xxx xxxx xxxxCO
2.xxx xxxx xxxxProfessor
2.xxx xxxx xxxxHead of Group
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxFritz
2.6
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSchweingruber
2.8.1 Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape
Research
2.8.2 Department of Ecology
2.8.3 Forest and Climate Research Unit
2.9
2.10 Zuercherstrasse 111
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Birmensdorf
2.14 CH
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.17 fritz.schweingruber@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Philosophy
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSenior Research Associate
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxKeith
2.6
2.xxx xxxx xxxxBriffa
2.8.1 University of East Anglia
2.8.2 School of Environmental Sciences
2.8.3 Climatic Research Unit
2.9
2.10
2.11
2.12 NR4 7TJ
2.13 Norwich
2.14 GB
2.xxx xxxx xxxx90
2.xxx xxxx xxxx84
2.17 k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx,000
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Biological Sciences
2.xxx xxxx xxxxHead of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxStepan
2.xxx xxxx xxxxGrigor'evich
2.xxx xxxx xxxxShiyatov
2.8.1 Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology
2.8.2
2.8.3 Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxUral Branch RAS
2.xxx xxxx xxxxMarta Street 202
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Ekaterinburg
2.14 RU
2.xxx xxxx xxxx0
2.xxx xxxx xxxx1
2.17 plant@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxxCR
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDoctor of Biological Sciences
2.xxx xxxx xxxxDirector of Forest Institute
2.xxx xxxx xxxxM
2.xxx xxxx xxxxEvgeny
2.xxx xxxx xxxxAlexandrovich
2.xxx xxxx xxxxVaganov
2.8.1 Institute of Forest
2.8.2
2.8.3 Laboratory of Dendrochronology
2.xxx xxxx xxxxSiberian Branch RAS
2.10
2.11
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.13 Krasnoyarsk
2.14 RU
2.xxx xxxx xxxx9
2.xxx xxxx xxxx6
2.17 evag@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
2.xxx xxxx xxxx
fAJL power.txt
"MULTI-MILLENNIAL-LENGTH DENDROCLIMATIC RECONSTRUCTIONS AT
HIGH-LATITUDE REGIONS OF SIBERIA".
By signing this declaration, I certify that the information given
in this proposal relating to me and the team I represent is to
the best of my knowledge true and complete. I have been involved
in the preparation of the full proposal and I agree with its
contents. I am fully authorised to commit myself and the team I
represent to be ready to set up and execute all tasks, duties and
obligations assigned to us in this research proposal, if
selected.
I hereby authorise the co-ordinator as lawful attorney and
administrator and empower him to act all of the necessary actions
to administrate validly the herein said rights on behalf of me in
case the proposal should be selected by INTAS, inter alia, to
negotiate and to conclude the co-operation agreement, as well as
any amendments, variations or additions to the co-operation
agreement on my behalf.
Laboratory of Dendrochronology
Institute of Forest SB RAS
Krasnoyarsk
Dr.Eugene A.Vaganov
5 March, 1997
fAJL projid.txt
1.1 Multi-millennial-length dendroclimatic reconstructions
at high-latitude regions of Siberia.
1.2 5
1.xxx xxxx xxxx
1.4 36
1.5 Oct-97
1.6 4
1.xxx xxxx xxxx
By signing this proposal, I certify that the information given in
this proposal is the best of my knowledge, true and complete as
received from all project participants; that all participants
were involved in the preparation, agree with this project
proposal and have declared themselves ready to perform the
project as proposed in case of selection.
I am fully authorised to commit myself and the team I represent
to be ready to set up and execute all tasks, duties and
obligations assigned to us in this research proposal and I am
ready to act as the co-ordinator of the project.
The proposal contains ..... pages.
PROJECT CO-ORDINATOR First name and family name:
Fritz Schweingruber
Date: ..... March,1xxx xxxx xxxxOriginal signature:
fAJL sum.txt
4.1. TITLE OF THE PROJECT
Multi-millennial-length dendroclimaticreconstructions
at high-latitude regions of Siberia
4.2. SUMMARY
This research will make a major contribution to our knowledge of
high-resolution climate variability at high latitudes of Western
and Middle Siberia throughout the Holocene using the unique
potential of tree-ring data.
The specific objectives of this proposal are the development of
two supra-long (each spanning xxx xxxx xxxxyears up to present)
continuous larch ring-width chronologies at two distant each
other high-latitude locations of Siberia (Yamal and Taimyr
peninsulas). Ring-width chronologies developed from coniferous
trees growing at the polar timberline in Siberia contain a very
strong climatic signal, mainly summer air temperatures. With
these chronologies high-resolution continuous and quantitative
reconstruction of summer temperatures will be made.
As in the areas of the past and present polar and upper
timberlines trees megafossils have been preserved properly in
large quantities in the Holocene deposits (alluvial, lacustrine
and peat), there is a good possibility to develop continuous,
multi-millennial tree-ring chronologies.
Now the material already collected and measured (1800 subfossil
wood samples from Yamal and 280 samples from Taimyr) has yielded
the ring-width chronologies continuously spanning the last 3200
years (Yamal) and 950 years (Taimyr).
However, there are also many more samples that have been measured
and have provided data, now assembled in a number of provisionally
"floating" chronologies covering much of the period from 7000 to
1700 B.C. (based on some 70 radiocarbon dates of samples of this
wood). There is a fair chance that a xxx xxxx xxxxyear continuous
chronologies will be constructed within the span of the proposed
project.
These chronologies and temperature reconstructions will be the
first to be so long, reliable, annually-resolved and
precisely-dated with known reliability across the whole of
northern Hemisphere. These reconstructions will allow to compare
and contrast the details of temperature changes at the
moderate-continental region of Yamal Peninsula with the
continental region of Taimyr Peninsula and allow modern and
predicted temperature patterns to be compared with variability
patterns of pre-industrial era. Participants of the proposed
project are the well-known institutions which are engaged in the
field of dendrochronology and dendroclimatology and have
collaborated with each other during the last 6 years.
fAJL workpro.txt
3.1 TITLE
Multi-millennial-length dendroclimatic reconstructions
at high-latitude regions of Siberia
3.2 OBJECTIVES
This research will make a major contribution to our knoweledge of
high-resolution climate variability at high latitudes of Western
and Middle Siberia throughout the Holocene using the unique
potential of tree-ring data.
The specific objectives of this proposal are as follows:
- to develop two supra-long (each spanning xxx xxxx xxxxyears up to
present) continuous ring-width larch chronologies at two
high-latitude locations of Siberia;
- using these tree-ring chronologies, tomake a multi-millennial
high-resolution continuous and quantitative reconstruction of
summer temperatures;
- to analyse spatio-temporal patterns of temperature variability
at these locations over a range of timescales (annual, decadal,
multi-decadal and centennial) and their connections with various
forcing factors and other annual resolution records being
developed elsewhere in the Arctic and Subarctic.
3.3. BACKGROUND
Reconstruction and analysis of natural climatic changes through
the whole Holocene at high latitudes are of great importance as
climatic conditions, especially air temperature, are most
variable and sensitive to various forcing functions (Budyko,
1980; Jones and Kelly, 1983; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change, 1990). However, there are a minute quantity of long,
precisely-dated and high-resolution proxy climatic series for
these regions.
The territory of Yamal Peninsula located on the eastern boundary
of influence of the Atlantic air masses and the territory of the
eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula located between the Arctic High
and Siberian High are of major importance for monitoring regional
and global-mean air temperatures and assessing theories and
models concerned with past, current and future climate changes
(Lamb, 1977; Briffa and Jones, 1993; Moses et al., 1987).
Tree rings as a proxy indicator of the past climatic conditions
are of special interest as they allow to reconstruct climatic
parameters with seasonal and annual resolution for many hundred
and thousand years, to provide an exact absolute and relative
dating of the tree-ring data, to establish high-frequency climate
changes (from interannual to centennial timescales) with high
confidence, to obtain dendroclimatic information practically for
every site where trees grow at present or grew in the past.
Intensive dendroclimatic investigations are carrying out in many
countries and regions, mainly in temperate and subtropic zones
(Fritts, 1976, 1991 ). At high latitudes such works began later
(during the last two decades) and living trees were used
primarily for developing tree-ring chronologies of xxx xxxx xxxxyears
long (Aniol and Eckstein, 1984; Shiyatov, 1984, 1986; Jacoby and
D'Arrigo, 1989; Schweingruber, Briffa and Nogler, 1993; Briffa,
Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Vaganov,1996; Jacoby, Wiles,
D'Arrigo, 1996; Vaganov, Shiyatov and Mazepa, 1996). As in the
areas of the past and present polar and upper timberlines trees
megafossils have been preserved properly in large quantities on
the surface and in the Holocene deposits (alluvial, lacustrine
and peat), there is a possibility to develop continuous,
multi-millennium and sensitive to climate tree-ring chronologies.
Such works began in the Polar Ural Mountains (Shiyatov, 1986;
Graybill and Shiyatov, 1992; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber,
Shiyatov and Cook, 1995), in the southern part of Yamal Peninsula
(Shiyatov, Surkov, 1980; Hantemirov, 1995), in Finnish Lapland
and Northern Sweden (Zetterberg, Eronen and Briffa, 1995), in
the eastern part of Taimyr Peninsula (Vaganov, Naurazbaev,
Schweingruber and Briffa, in press) and in the Lower Indigirka
River at present. Now the longest, continuous and absolute-dated
ring-width chronologies developed for the Yamal Peninsula
(spanning 3200 years) and for the Northern Scandinavia (spanning
2160 years) and the "floating" chronologies dated by the
radiocarbon method extended back 9500 and over 7000 years
respectively.
Ring-width chronologies developed from coniferous trees growing
at the polar timberline in moderate-continental and continental
regions of Siberia contain a very strong climatic signal, mainly
summer air temperatures of tree growth year (Graybill and
Shiyatov, 1992; Briffa, Jones, Schweingruber, Shiyatov and Cook,
1995; Hantemirov, 1995; Vaganov, Shiyatov and Mazepa, 1996).The
explained variance over the calibration and verification periods
is highest reported in the literature to date (65-70%) and it
allows to make a quantitative reconstructions of summer
temperatures. These chronologies and temperature reconstructions
will be the first to be so long, reliable, annually-resolved and
precisely-dated with known reliability across the whole of
northern Hemisphere. These reconstructions will allow to compare
and contrast the details of temperature changes at the
moderate-continental region of Yamal Peninsula with the
continental region of Taimyr Peninsula and allow modern and
predicted temperature patterns to be compared with variability
patterns of pre-industrial era.
Participants of the proposed project are the well-known
institutions which are engaged in the field of dendrochronology
and dendroclimatology and have collaborated with each other
during the last 6 years.
- The Group of Tree-Ring and Site of the Swiss Federal Institute
for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (Birmensdorf,
Switzerland). The Group is currently engaged on a major programme
of densitometric and ring-width chronology development involving
many sites across the whole of the Northern Hemisphere including
sites with living trees in the polar timberline area of Russia.
This work is specifically designed to provide
climatically-sensitive data for use in large spatial climate
reconstruction work. Dr. F.H.Schweingruber, Head of the Group, is
known throughout the world for his work in wood anatomy and
dendrochronology and the development of tree-ring densitometry.
He has published extensively in different areas of wood anatomy
and tree-growth research and has authored several classic books.
- The Laboratory of Dendrochronology of the Institute of Plant
and Animal Ecology of the Russian Academy of Sciences,
Ekaterinburg, Russia is one of the leading laboratory in the
field of dendrochronology in Russia. The Laboratory has an
international reputation for its work on the developing
ring-width chronologies at high latitudes and altitudes,
reconstruction of climatic conditions, developing long-term
chronologies, studying cycles in tree-ring series, using
tree-ring data for studies of the upper and polar timberlines
dynamics and forest succession. Dr. S.G.Shiyatov, Head of the
Laboratory, is one of the pioneers of dendrochronology in Russia
and has worked for more than 30 years in the Far North and
mountains of the Urals, Siberia, Far East and Middle Asia. He has
published more than 130 articles and three monographs. Dr.
Shiyatov was the first who began to collect subfossil wood in
Russia for developing long-term chronologies.
- The Laboratory of Dendrochronology of the Institute of Forest
of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Krasnoyarsk, Russia is
another leading laboratory in the field of dendrochronology in
Russia. Dr. E.A.Vaganov, Director of the Institute of Forest and
Head of the Laboratory of Dendrochronology, has an international
reputation for his work on the cell structure of wood lyers of
coniferous trees, seasonal growth variations and cambium
activity, developing simulation models of seasonal tree growth,
developing ring-width and cell chronologies, reconstructing
climatic conditions of the past using tree-ring chronologies. He
has published more than 100 articles and 5 monographs.
- The Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia,
Norwich, Great Britain is one of the world's leading research
organisation specialising in the study of climate change: climate
history, current climates, projected changes and impacts. Dr.
K.R.Briffa, Senior Research Associate at the Climatic Research
Unit, has considerable experience in climatology and with the use
of statistical methods of climate analyses and dendroclimatic
reconstruction, especially with regard to large-spatial-scale
reconstructions of climate patterns and published many articles
on the theoretical and practical aspects of dendrochronology and
dendroclimatology, and on use of paleoclimate data for
understanding current and possible future climates.
3.4 SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL DESCRIPTION
3.4.1. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
Tree-ring data will be obtained from living trees and subfossil
wood of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) in western Siberia
and Gmelini larch (Larix Gmelini Pilger) in central Siberia. The
first location is situated in the southern part of Yamal
Peninsula xxx xxxx xxxxN, xxx xxxx xxxxE), the second location in the eastern
part of Taimyr Peninsula xxx xxxx xxxxN, xxx xxxx xxxxE). There is a great
many properly preserved subfossil wood in the Holocene deposits
at both locations, mainly in the alluvial and peat deposits.
The main variable measured will be ring width. This variable
reflects properly climate influences on tree growth at the polar
timberline areas of Siberia having a continental climate.
Ring-width chronologies for the last xxx xxxx xxxxyears will be
developed from the oldest living trees. Extensions to these
chronologies back further in time will be made by using subfossil
material, joined with the living material by standard crossdating
procedures. High-precision radiocarbon dates will be used for
rough dating of "floating" tree-ring chronologies.
The sampling subfossil wood and development of the Yamal's
supra-long chronology began since 1982 by the workers of the
Laboratory of Dendrochronology (Ekaterinburg). Most intensively
this work was carried out during the last five years. Now the
material already collected and measured (1800 subfossil wood
cuts) has yielded the ring-width chronology continuously spanning
the last 3200 years. However, there are also many more samples
that have been measured and have provided data, now assembled in
a number of provisionally "floating" chronologies covering much
of the period from 7000 to 1700 B.C. (based on some 45
radiocarbon dates of samples of this wood). These chronologies
separated by 50 to 500 year length gaps. There is a fair chance
that a 9000-year continuous chronology will be constructed for
this location within the span of the proposed project.
Similarly, work with a shorter history than the Yamal's research
has clearly established potential to build a chronology at least
as long in the Taimyr Peninsula where the modern polar timberline
extends to about 72830'N, most northern over the world. This work
is not so advanced as in Yamal, but the work to date suggests
that very rapid progress is likely. Samples from living and dead
trees have already been assembled at the Laboratory of
Dendrochronology (Krasnoyarsk) into the 950-year continuous
chronology. The collections from this location are not so
extensive as those made to date at Yamal (280 subfossil wood
samples), but there is an abundant supply of subfossil trees,
many with over 300 annual rings. 25 radiocarbon dates of samples
of this material suggest major phases of tree growth around 8500
B.P. and 5000 B.P. The general distribution of the radiocarbon
dates suggests that, eventually, sufficient trees can probably be
located to span the whole of the last 10000 years. It is not
expected that a continuous 10000-year ring-width chronology will
be produced within timeframe of this project. However, there are
good prospects of producing a xxx xxxx xxxxyear chronology to the
present.
3.4.2 RESEARCH RESULTS
During three years we expect to develop the continuous and
good-replicated tree-ring 9000-year larch chronology for the
Yamal Peninsula and the xxx xxxx xxxxyear larch chronology for the
Taimyr Peninsula. Using these chronologies we intend to
reconstruct and analyse a summer temperature variation at several
time scales (annual, decadal, multi-decadal and centennial) and
compare the data obtained with other high-resolution
Holocene-length proxy data (ice cores, laminated sediments,
historical documents).
The results of this project will be published primarily in the
scientific literature in Russian and English and presented at
different national and international conferences. Because of the
fundamental interdisciplinarity and collaborative interaction
within the subgroups, a number of multi-authored papers will be
produced. The individual and mean ring-width chronologies and the
reconstructions produced will be distributed to the international
scientific community through submission to the International
Tree-Ring Data Bank (Boulder, Colorado, USA) and to other
national and international institutions and data centres.
3.5 MANAGEMENT INFORMATION
3.5.1 TASK DIVISION
Dr F.H.Schweingruber (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow
and Landscape Research) will be the project co-ordinator on the
proposed project from the INTAS countries.
Dr S.G.Shiyatov (Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology) will be
the responsible scientist on the proposed project and he will
take part in collecting, dating, developing and analysing the
multi-millennial ring-width chronology at the area of Yamal
Peninsula. The next young scientists of the Institute will be
involved in the project:
Rashit M. Hantemirov, Candidate of Biological Sciences,
34 years old. He will take part in collecting, cross-dating
and analysing the material.
Alexander Yu. Surkov, technician, 30 years old. He will take part
in collecting, preparing and measuring the subfossil wood samples.
Dr E.A.Vaganov (Institute of Forest) will be the responsible
scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in
collecting, dating, developing and analysing the multi-millennial
ring-width chronology at the area of Taimyr Peninsula. The next
young scientists will be involved in the project:
Mukhtar M. Naurazbaev, junior research fellow,35 years old.
He will take part in collecting, preparing, measuring, cross-
dating and analysing the material.
Alexander V.Kirdyanov, post-graduate, 25 years old.
He will take part in data processing, density measurements,
chronology analysis.
Dmitry V.Ovchinnikov, post-graduate, 26 years old.
He will take part in cross-dating, data processing,
chronology analysis.
Dr K.R.Briffa (Climatic Research Unit) will be the responsible
scientist on the proposed project and he will take part in
analysing growth-climate relationships, developing statistical
models of tree growth, extracting climatic signal, reconstructing
and analysing climatic conditions of the remote past.
3.5.2 PLANNING
To carry-out the objectives of this proposal the workers of the
Russian laboratories will carry out an intensive collecting
subfossil wood during summers of 1xxx xxxx xxxxat two high-latitude
locations (Yamal and Taimyr peninsulas) using helicopters, boats
and ships. To finish the development of the Yamal chronology it
is necessary to collect additionally no less than xxx xxxx xxxxcuts of
subfossil wood. Much more intensive collecting (xxx xxxx xxxxcuts for
two field seasons) is needed to develop the Taimyr chronology.
All samples collected during these two years and earlier will be
measured and cross-dated at Ekaterinburg and Krasnoyarsk
laboratories until the middle of 1999.
The Russian laboratories together with the Climatic Research Unit
of the University of East Anglia during 1xxx xxxx xxxxwill be
analysing the material obtained (standardization of individual
series, development of mean chronologies, studying growth-climate
relationships, developing statistical models of tree growth,
extracting climatic signal, reconstructing and analysing climatic
conditions of the remote past). This work will be finished at the
end of 1999.
3.5.3 EQUIPMENT
Participants of the proposed project have the necessary equipment
for fieldwork, measuring equipment and compatible software.
3.5.4 SCIENTIFIC REFERENCES
Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., Shiyatov, S.G.
and Cook, E.R. Unusual twentieth-century summer warmth in a
1,000-year temperature record from Siberia. Nature, 1995, Vol.
376, 13 July, xxx xxxx xxxx.
Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., Shiyatov, S.G.,
Vaganov, E.A. Development of a North Eurasian chronology network:
Rationale and preliminary results of comparative ring-width and
densitimetric analyses in Northern Russia. Radiocarbon, 1996,
25-41.
Hantemirov, R.M. A 2,305 year tree-ring reconstruction of mean
June-July temperature deviations in the Yamal Peninsula.
Publication of the Academy of Finland,1995, 6, xxx xxxx xxxx.
Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S., Vaganov, E.A., Schweingruber, F.H.
Summer temperature variations reconstructed by tree-ring Data at
the polar timberline in Siberia. Radiocarbon, 1996, 61-70.
Vaganov, E.A., Shiyatov, S.G., Mazepa, V.S. Dendroclimatic Study
in Ural-Siberian Subarctic. Novosibirsk: "Nauka", Siberian
Publishing Firm RAS, 1996, 246 pp. (in Russian).
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From: Angela.LIBERATORE@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
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Subject: Copy of: climate: Japanese proposal
Date: Tue, 7 Oct 1997 14:55:31 +0200
From: Andrew Kerr <101322.3724@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Sender: Andrew Kerr <101322.3724@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Peter DEBRINE <Peter.Debrine@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
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Subject: climate: Japanese proposal
Message-ID: <199710051347_MC2-22DC-A5E4@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
From: Andrew Kerr, WWF Climate Change Campaign
re.: "scandalous" Japanese climate change proposal
Dear All
I am in Japan for the next week. If you need to, you can contact me by
phone at the following numbers:
* Monday - xxx xxxx xxxx(Yurika?s mobile)
* Tuesday-Thursday - via WWF Japan. Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx; fax: 3xxx xxxx xxxx.
* Friday - Tokyo Grand Hotel. Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
Tomorrow the Japanese government is due to formally announce its emission
reduction proposal for the industrialised world for the Kyoto climate
summit: a maximum of a 5% reduction from 1990 levels for a basket of three
greenhouse gases over the period 2xxx xxxx xxxx. In a second period up to 2017,
industrialised countries would not be obliged to make further reductions.
See below for fuller details and an analysis of the emission
reduction implications for various industrialised nations.
The information has been well-leaked. In a talk to the Foreign
Correspondents Club of Japan last Friday I described the proposal as a
"joke". This was well picked up by the written press here.
Now more details have emerged, the proposal is even weaker than first
thought. We are faxing a press release out this afternoon to Japan-based
agencies and press with WWF?s reaction (see below). You might like to join
in the condemnation of what Japan is proposing and ensure that your country
flatly rejects the proposal.
Japan?s Special Ambassador, Toshiaki Tanabe, is on a world tour canvassing
for the support of other industrialised nations. After visiting Washington
DC he moved on to Hawaii a few days ago for an informal conference
including Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US. Today's Yomiuri
Shimbun gave front-page coverage to Australia?s outrage over the stringency
of the Japanese proposal!
Tanabe is moving to Europe for talks in the next few days. It is vital that
European governments reject the proposal in no uncertain terms and urge
Japan to at least support the EU standpoint. (Note: the WWF policies and
measures study for Japan identifies how to cut CO2 emissions 8.8% below
1990 levels by 2005 and 14.8% by 2010 - very similar to the EU position).
It would also be very useful if progressive business groups would express
their horror at the new economic opportunities which will be foregone if
Kyoto is a flop.
Best wishes, Andrew
---
CLIMATE CHANGE: JAPANESE PROPOSAL FOR KYOTO
To be formally announced by the Japanese government, Monday 6 October 1997
Following information is from the Nikkei Journal, 4 October 1997
A. Content of the proposal
1. First period: the five years from 2008 to 2012
Reduction of 5%; Base year: 1990
1) Gases: CO2, methane, Nitrous oxide
2) Target figures will be flexible according to the future energy
situation, changes in industrial structures, etc. But in any case, the
total emission should not exceed 1990 level.
3) Each country's target would be based on emission per GDP, emission per
capita, and population growth rate.
If emission per GDP of 1990 (A) is smaller than emission per GDP of all
countries (B), the reduction rate should be 5%x(A/B)
If per capita emission of 1990(C) is smaller than per capita emission of
all countries (D), the reduction rate should be 5%x(C/D).
If population growth rate from 1990 to 1995 is more than the population
growth rate of all other countries, the reduction target of that country
should put into consideration their high population growth rate.
Banking, Borrowing, Joint Implementaion and Emission Trading schemes should
be introduced with certain conditions.
2. Second period: 2xxx xxxx xxxx
Emission should not exceed the level of the first period.
More sophisticated differentiation scheme should be adopted for the second
period.
B. Implications of the proposal
Resulting emission reduction targets for the five years 2xxx xxxx xxxx, relative
to 1990:
%
Australia 1.8
Czech Republic 5.0
Denmark 2.5
Germany 3.1
Italy 2.5
Japan 2.5
Portugal 1.6
Russia 5.0
Spain 2.2
Switzerland 1.3
UK 3.7
US 2.6
Overall reduction for all industrialised countries: 3.2 %
---
WWF PRESS RELEASE
JAPAN PROPOSAL FOR KYOTO SUMMIT SCANDALOUS, WWF SAYS
KYOTO, JAPAN, 5 October 1997 ? The World Wide Fund for Nature condemned as
"scandalous" the Japanese government?s proposal for reducing greenhouse
gases responsible for climate change, Sunday, and called on industrialised
nations to flatly reject it.
As full details of the proposal emerged over the weekend, it was revealed
that Japan suggests allowing industrialised countries to make extremely
marginal reductions in their emissions by as late as 2xxx xxxx xxxx. In a
second five-year period up to 2017, countries would only be required to
ensure their emissions were lower than in 1990.
"The Japanese plan presents a bleak future for the environment, already
suffering from the serious impacts of global warming including rising
sea-levels, rising sea temperatures, and increased extreme weather patterns
? to name just a few," said Andrew Kerr of WWF?s international Climate
Change Campaign. "The plan is laughable when you consider that some
European nations already have cut their greenhouse gas emissions by several
times more than the amount Japan proposes for emission reductions more than
a decade from now."
According to the just released "WWF State of the Climate" report that
evaluates the global impacts of climate change, a long list of impacts
already are visible today including the destruction of several land and
marine ecosystems in Asia and around the world because they cannot keep up
with the pace of global warming.
The Japanese proposal also proves the government is back-tracking on a
Ministerial Declaration concluded at the 1996 climate summit in Geneva. At
that conference, 130 countries, including Japan, agreed that the Kyoto
Summit should agree on "legally-binding objectives for emission limitations
and significant overall reductions" of greenhouse gases. At the Geneva
meeting, the Ministers recognised that climate change science showed human
activities, primarily the burning of coal, oil and gasoline, are already
affecting the planet?s climate and the impacts would be wide-ranging and
irreversible, posing threats to food supplies, public health and the
survival of many species. Nations also agreed that "significant reductions
in net greenhouse gas emissions are technically possible and economically
feasible".
WWF is calling on industrial nations to cut their carbon dioxide emissions
20 percent below 1990 levels by 2005. A WWF report written by Dr. Haruki
Tsuchiya of the Research Institute for Systems Technology, in Tokyo, (to be
released by WWF later this month) shows that Japan can reduce its carbon
dioxide emissions by nearly nine percent by 2005 and by almost 15 percent
by 2010 without damaging the economy. Policies and measures suggested by
the WWF report would stimulate the economy and help position Japan as a
world leader in the development of new, energy efficient technologies.
"Environmentally, Japan?s plan is worse than no plan whatsoever because it
pretends to legitimise an emissions cut that is so low it will produce no
tangible result in the effort to combat climate change, " said Kerr. "Even
more alarming, it encourages many nations also to cut their emissions by
much less than they now plan. This proposal is an embarrassment for Japan
because it spells disaster for the Kyoto Summit in December which will be
seen as an absolute failure by several European nations and the entire
environmental community if such meagre greenhouse gas emission cuts are
adopted."
The complicated emission-reduction formulae that Japan proposes would
require Japan to make only a 2.5 percent cut in emissions. The United
States, responsible for over one-fifth of world releases of carbon dioxide,
would only need to make a 2.6 percent reduction. Highlighting the
political irrelevance of the Japanese formula, Germany, Denmark and the UK
would have to make reductions of 3.1 percent, 2.5 percent and 3.7 percent
respectively. But Germany already has achieved around half of its national
target of cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 25 percent by 2005. Denmark
is aiming for a 20 percent reduction by the same date and the UK?s target
is a 20 percent cut by 2010.
Contact: Andrew Kerr or Yurika Ayukawa. Mobile tel: xxx xxxx xxxxand
Hearton Hotel, xxx xxxx xxxx.
Original Filename: 880476729.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: jan.goudriaan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, grassl_h@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Klaus Hasselmann <klaus.hasselmann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jill Jaeger <jaeger@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, rector@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, oriordan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, uctpa84@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, john@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mparry@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pier.vellinga@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: ATTENTION. Invitation to influence Kyoto.
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 1997 11:52:xxx xxxx xxxx(MST)
Reply-to: Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Cc: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, t.mitchell@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Dear Eleven,
I was very disturbed by your recent letter, and your attempt to get
others to endorse it. Not only do I disagree with the content of
this letter, but I also believe that you have severely distorted the
IPCC "view" when you say that "the latest IPCC assessment makes a
convincing economic case for immediate control of emissions." In contrast
to the one-sided opinion expressed in your letter, IPCC WGIII SAR and TP3
review the literature and the issues in a balanced way presenting
arguments in support of both "immediate control" and the spectrum of more
cost-effective options. It is not IPCC's role to make "convincing cases"
for any particular policy option; nor does it. However, most IPCC readers
would draw the conclusion that the balance of economic evidence favors the
emissions trajectories given in the WRE paper. This is contrary to your
statement.
This is a complex issue, and your misrepresentation of it does you a
dis-service. To someone like me, who knows the science, it is
apparent that you are presenting a personal view, not an informed,
balanced scientific assessment. What is unfortunate is that this will not
be apparent to the vast majority of scientists you have contacted. In
issues like this, scientists have an added responsibility to keep their
personal views separate from the science, and to make it clear to others
when they diverge from the objectivity they (hopefully) adhere to in their
scientific research. I think you have failed to do this.
Your approach of trying to gain scientific credibility for your personal
views by asking people to endorse your letter is reprehensible. No
scientist who wishes to maintain respect in the community should ever
endorse any statement unless they have examined the issue fully
themselves. You are asking people to prostitute themselves by doing just
this! I fear that some will endorse your letter, in the mistaken belief
that you are making a balanced and knowledgeable assessment of the science
-- when, in fact, you are presenting a flawed view that neither accords
with IPCC nor with the bulk of the scientific and economic literature on
the subject.
Let me remind you of the science. The issue you address is one of the
timing of emissions reductions below BAU. Note that this is not the same
as the timing of action -- and note that your letter categorically
addresses the former rather than the latter issue. Emissions reduction
timing is epitomized by the differences between the Sxxx and WRExxx
pathways towards CO2 concentration stabilization. It has been clearly
demonstrated in the literature that the mitigation costs of following an
Sxxx pathway are up to five times the cost of following an equivalent
WRExxx pathway. It has also been shown that there is likely to be an
equal or greater cost differential for non-Annex I countries, and that the
economic burden in Annex I countries would fall disproportionately on
poorer people.
Furthermore, since there has been no credible analysis of the benefits
(averted impacts) side of the equation, it is impossible to assess fully
the benefits differential between the Sxxx and WRExxx stabilization
profiles. Indeed, uncertainties in predicting the regional details of
future climate change that would arise from following these pathways, and
the even greater uncertainties that attend any assessment of the impacts
of such climate changes, preclude any credible assessment of the relative
benefits. As shown in the WRE paper (Nature v. 379, pp. xxx xxxx xxxx), the
differentials at the global-mean level are so small, at most a few tenths
of a degree Celsius and a few cm in sea level rise and declining to
minuscule amounts as the pathways approach the SAME target, that it is
unlikely that an analysis of future climate data could even distinguish
between the pathways. Certainly, given the much larger noise at the
regional level, and noting that even the absolute changes in many
variables at the regional level remain within the noise out to 2030 or
later, the two pathways would certainly be indistinguishable at the
regional level until well into the 21st century.
The crux of this issue is developing policies for controlling greenhouse
gas emissions where the reductions relative to BAU are neither too much,
too soon (which could cause serious economic hardship to those who are
most vulnerable, poor people and poor countries) nor too little, too late
(which could lead to future impacts that would be bad for future
generations of the same groups). Our ability to quantify the economic
consequences of "too much, too soon" is far better than our ability to
quantify the impacts that might arise from "too little, too late" -- to
the extent that we cannot even define what this means! You appear to be
putting too much weight on the highly uncertain impacts side of the
equation. Worse than this, you have not even explained what the issues
are. In my judgment, you are behaving in an irresponsible way that does
you little credit. Furthermore, you have compounded your sin by actually
putting a lie into the mouths of innocents ("after carefully examining the
question of timing of emissions reductions, we find the arguments against
postponement to be more compelling"). People who endorse your letter will
NOT have "carefully examined" the issue.
When scientists color the science with their own PERSONAL views or make
categorical statements without presenting the evidence for such
statements, they have a clear responsibility to state that that is what
they are doing. You have failed to do so. Indeed, what you are doing is,
in my view, a form of dishonesty more subtle but no less egregious than
the statements made by the greenhouse skeptics, Michaels, Singer et al. I
find this extremely disturbing.
Tom Wigley
On Tue, 11 Nov 1997, Tim Mitchell wrote:
> Reference: Statement of European Climate Scientists on Actions to Protect
> Global Climate
>
> Dear Colleague,
>
> Attached at the end of this email is a Statement, the purpose of which is
> to bolster or increase governmental and public support for controls of
> emissions of greenhouse gases in European and other industrialised
> countries in the negotiations during the Kyoto Climate Conference in
> December 1997. The Statement was drafted by a number of prominent European
> scientists concerned with the climate issue, 11 of whom are listed after
> the Statement and who are acting as formal sponsors of the Statement.
>
> ***** The 11 formal sponsors are: *****
>
> Jan Goudriaan Hartmut Grassl Klaus Hasselmann Jill J
Original Filename: 889554019.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Anne JOHNSON <johnson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Joseph Alcamo <alcamo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Knut Alfsen <knut.alfsen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Dennis Anderson <dennis.anderson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Zhou Dadi <becon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Gerald Davis <Ged.R.Davis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Benjamin Dessus <Benjamin.Dessus@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Bert de Vries <Bert.de.Vries@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jae Edmonds <ja_edmonds@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Joerg Fenhann <j.fenhann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Stuart Gaffin <stuart@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Henryk Gaj <Fewewar@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Kenneth Gregory <kennethgregory@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Arnulf Gruebler <gruebler@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Erik Haites <ehaites@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, William Hare <bhare@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Michael Jefferson <jefferson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tae-Yong Jung <tyjung@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Thomas Kram <kram@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Emilio La Rovere <emilio@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Mathew Luhanga <vc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Julio Torres Martinez <dpid@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Douglas McKay <Doug.D.Mckay@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Laurie Michaelis <laurie.michaelis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Shunsuke Mori <mori@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Tsuneyuke Morita <t-morita@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Richard Moss <rmoss@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Nebojsa Nakicenovic <Naki@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Youssef Nassef <nassef@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, William Pepper <WPepper@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Hugh Pitcher <hm_pitcher@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Lynn Price <lkprice@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Rich Richels <rrichels@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Holger Rogner <rogner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Cynthia Rosenzweig <crosenzweig@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Priyadarshi Shukla <shukla@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, James Skea <J.F.Skea@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Leena Srivastava <leena@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Robert Swart <rob.swart@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Robert Watson <rwatson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, John Weyant <weyant@xxxxxxxxx.xxx.>, Ernst Worrell <e.worrell@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: new IPCC-SRES Zero Order Draft
Date: Tue, 10 Mar 1998 13:20:19 +0100
Dear Colleagues:
I am sending you a copy of Ged Davis' IPCC-SRES Zero Order Draft on
storylines and scenarios. The text is appended below, but I am also
attaching versions in MS Word and in Rich Text formats so that you can
better view the graphics.
Please send any comments directly to Ged Davis at
Ged.R.Davis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Regards,
Anne Johnson
****************************************************************************
******
Zero Order Draft
IS99
Storylines and Scenarios
February, 1998
Ged Davis et al
For Comment Only
Draft Paper for the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
*********************************
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Scenarios - overview
3. Golden Economic Age (A1)
4. Sustainable Development (B1)
5. Divided World (A2)
6. Regional Stewardship (B2)
7. Scenario comparisons
8. Conclusions
Appendix 1: Scenario quantification
1. Introduction
The IS99 scenarios have been constructed to explore future developments in
the global environment with special reference to the production of GHGs.
These scenarios are being developed in three phases:
- Phase 1: the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) team is
preparing a set of scenarios for wide public discussion, which is the
subject of this note,
- Phase 2: the scenarios will be placed on the World Wide Web, subject to
public scrutiny, and suggestions for relevant modification of the scenarios
will be sought,
- Phase 3: the scenarios will be finalised for peer review, incorporating
suggestions received during the public review, by April 1999.
Phase 1 centred on a facilitated open process for Lead Authors at workshops
in Paris, Vienna and Utrecht. The scenarios developed allow for a broad
range of GHG emissions and provide a basis for reflection on policy.
1.1 What are scenarios?
Scenarios are pertinent, plausible, alternative futures. Their pertinence,
in this case, is derived from the need for climate change modelers to have
a basis for assessing the implications of future possible paths for
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs). Their plausibility is tested by peer
review, in an open process, which includes their publication on the World
Wide Web.
There are clearly an infinite number of possible alternative futures to
explore. We have consciously applied the principle of Occam's Razor ,
seeking the minimum number of scenarios to provide an adequate basis for
climate modelling and challenge to policy makers. The alternative futures
constructed are not, and cannot be, value free since like any work they
self-evidently reflect the team's view of the possible. The scenarios
should not be construed as being desirable or undesirable in their own
right and have been built as descriptions of possible, rather than
preferred, developments. There can be no objective assessment of the
probability of the scenarios, although in the prevailing zeitgeist some
will appear to individuals to be more likely than others. Scenarios are
built to clarify ignorance rather than present knowledge -- the one thing
we can be sure of is that the future will be very different from any of
those we describe!
2. Scenarios - overview
2.1 Scenarios: key questions and dimensions
Developing scenarios for a period of one hundred years is a relatively new
field. Within that period we might expect two major technological
discontinuities, a major shift in societal values and a change in the
balance of geopolitical power. A particular difficulty is that people are
not trained to think in these time-spans, are educated in narrow
disciplines and our ability to model large-systems, at the global level, is
still in its infancy. Additionally, most databases do not go back much
further than 50 years and many less than that. How best to integrate
demography, politico-economic, societal and technological knowledge with
our understanding of ecological systems? Scenarios can be used as an
integration tool, allowing an equal role for intuition, analysis and
synthesis.
Terminology
Storylines, Scenarios and Scenario Families
Storyline: a narrative description of a scenario (or a family of
scenarios), highlighting the main scenario characteristics, relationships
between key driving forces and the dynamics of the scenarios.
Scenario: projections of a potential future, based on a clear logic and a
quantified storyline.
Scenario family: one or more scenarios which have the same demographic,
politico-societal, economic and technological storyline.
Scenario Classification
Our approach has been to develop a set of four "scenario families". The
storylines of each of these scenario families describes a demographic,
politico-economic, societal and technological future. Within each family
one or more scenarios explore global energy industry and other developments
and their implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions and other pollutants.
These are a starting point for climate impact modelling.
The scenarios we have built explore two main questions for the 21st
century, neither of which we know the answer to:
- Can adequate governance -- institutions and agreements -- be put in place
to manage global problems?
- Will society's values focus more on enhancing material wealth or be more
broadly balanced, incorporating environmental health and social well-being.
The way we answer these questions leads to four families of scenarios:
- Golden Economic Age (A1): a century of expanded economic prosperity with
the emergence of global governance
- Sustainable Development (B1): in which global agreements and
institutions, underpinned by a value shift, encourages the integration of
ecological and economic goals
- Divided World (A2): difficulty in resolving global issues leads to a
world of autarkic regions
- Regional Stewardship (B2): in the face of weak global governance there is
a focus on managing regional/local ecological and equity
Within these scenario families we examine plausible energy industry and
other developments which will contribute to GHG emissions. Although the
storylines cannot have explicit climate change policy measures in them
there are examples of indirect mitigation measures in some of the scenarios.
The scenario quantifications of the main indicators related to growth of
population and economy, the characteristics of the energy system and the
associated greenhouse gas emissions all fall within the range of prior
studies .
3. Golden Economic Age (A1)
This scenario family entitled "Golden Economic Age", describes rapid and
successful economic development. The primary drivers for economic growth
and development "catch up" are the strong human desire for prosperity, high
human capital (education), innovation, technology diffusion, and free trade.
The logic of successful development assumes smooth growth with no major
political discontinuities or catastrophic events. The scenario family's
development model is based on the most successful historical examples of
economic growth, i.e., on the development path of the now affluent OECD
economies. Historical analogies of successful economic "catching up" can
be found in the Scandinavian countries, Austria, Japan, and South Korea.
"Intangible" assets (human capital, stable political climate) take
precedence over "tangible" assets (capital, resource, and technology
availability) in providing the conditions for a take-off into accelerated
rates of development. Once these conditions are met, free trade enables
each region to access knowledge, technology, and capital to best deploy its
respective comparative economic and human resource advantages.
Institutional frameworks are able to successfully sustain economic growth
and also to handle the inevitable volatility that rapid economic growth
entails.
The "intangible" prerequisites for accelerated rates of economic growth
also offer long-term development perspectives for regions that are poorly
endowed with resources or where current economic prospects are not
auspicious, such as Sub-Saharan Africa. There, for instance, fostered
regional trade and capital availability enhance the pull-effects of a
strong South African economy. In other regions, growth may be fuelled by
domestic know-how and high human capital valued at the international
market. An example of this is the thriving software industry of the Indian
subcontinent. In yet other regions, growth could be stimulated by the
expansion of regional economic partnerships and free trade arrangements
(e.g., extensions of NAFTA and the European Union).
The main difference with the historical OECD experience is a certain
acceleration in time and space, (i.e., "leapfrogging") made possible by
better access to knowledge and technology, a consequence of the high-tech
and free trade characteristics of development. Successful catching up
becomes pervasive; all parts of the "developing world" participate, though
with differences in timing. The final outcome is that practically all
parts of the world achieve high levels of affluence by the end of the 21st
century, even if disparities will not have disappeared entirely. The
current distinction between "developed" and "developing" countries will in
any case no longer be appropriate.
As in the past, high growth (a "growing cake") eases distributional
conflicts. Everyone reaps the benefits of rapid growth, rising incomes,
improved access to services, and rising standards of living. The economic
imperatives of markets, free trade, and technology diffusion (i.e.,
competition) that underlie the high growth rates provide for efficient
allocation of resources. Efficiency and high productivity are the positive
by-products of the highly competitive nature of the economy. They also
provide the economic resources for distributive and social measures
required for a stable social and political climate, vital for sustaining
high growth rates in human capital, productivity, innovation, and hence
economic growth.
The economic development focus explains its central metric: the degree of
economic development as reflected in per capita income levels (GDP at
market exchange rates as well as at purchasing power parity rates). The
principal driver is the desire for prosperity, all major driving forces are
closely linked to prosperity levels, with actual causality links going in
both directions. For example, demographic variables co-evolve with
prosperity: mortality declines (i.e. life expectancy increases) as a
function of higher incomes (better diets and affordable medical treatment).
In turn, changes in the social values underlying the fertility transition
also pave the way for greater access to education, modernisation of
economic structures, and market orientation. These are key for innovating
and diffusing the best practice technologies underlying the high
productivity, and hence economic growth, of the scenario.
3.1 Key Scenario Drivers and their Relationships
3.11 Population and Economic Development
High education, stable social relations, and incentives for innovation and
experimentation are the preconditions for productivity increases underlying
rapid economic development in this world-- as a result, social, economic,
and demographic development are highly correlated .
The link between demographic and economic variables in the scenario
corresponds to present empirical observations: the affluent live long and
have few children. High per capita incomes are thus associated with both
low mortality and low fertility. Together, this results in rather low
population growth, characterised in addition by a considerable "greying" of
the population.
This family of scenarios combines high life expectancy with low fertility,
where OECD rates are assumed to stabilize at current (below replacement)
levels, and developing countries follow a similar transition by the
mid-21st century. Fertility rates range between 1.3 to 1.7 children per
woman. Life expectancy can approach some 95 years, with a regional
variation between 80 and 95 years. Global population grows to some 9
billion by 2050, and declines to 7 billion by 2100, the result of continued
below replacement fertility in all regions.
Population ageing results in economic growth rates somewhat lower than
historical experience, especially in the OECD countries. Economic growth
rates slow over time in proportion to the reduction of the potentially
economic active population (age 15 to 65), which decline in some regions to
50 percent compared to the historical average of approximately 70 percent.
For "developing countries", economic growth is based on the most successful
cases of economic "catch up" found in history. The economic growth profile
of Japan after WW II served as a model to delineate the upper bounds of
possible GDP growth for all regions. Consistent with growth theory, GDP
expansion initially accelerates, passes through a peak, in which growth
rates around 10 percent per year can be sustained for several decades, and
then declines. Once the economic and industrial base is firmly established
and the economy matures, growth rates decline with increasing income
levels. This reflects saturation effects and a higher emphasis on quality
rather than quantity at high income levels.
The global economy in the "Golden Economic Age" expands at an average
annual rate of three percent per year to 2100. This is about the same rate
as the global average since 1850 and in this respect may simply be
considered "dynamics as usual". Non-Annex-I economies expand with an
average annual growth rate of four percent per year, twice the rate of
Annex-I economies. By approximately 2030 Non-Annex-I GDP surpasses that of
the Annex-I economies. Per capita income disparities are reduced, but
differences between regions are not entirely eliminated. Non-Annex-I per
capita income reaches the 1990 Annex-I level (14,000 $/capita) by around
2040. By 2100 per capita income would approach 100,000 $/capita in Annex-I
countries and 70,000 $/capita in Non-Annex-I countries.
3.12 Equity
Equity issues are not a major concern in the world, but is rather a
by-product of the high rates of economic development. Existing per capita
income gaps between regions close up in a similar way as between Western
Europe and Japan compared to the US in the 20th century. Disparities
continue to persist between regions, but more so within particular regions.
Nevertheless, the high economic growth rates require a certain degree of
income distribution. Extreme income disparities are found to be negative
influencing factors for economic growth. Additionally, fair income
distribution only assures the large consumer markets and the social
cohesion and stability required for the realisation of high economic growth.
3.13 Settlement patterns/communication
Communication technologies and styles are highly homogeneous and extremely
developed -- rather than a "global village" future, this is one of "global
cities." Existing trends towards urbanisation continue, as cities provide
the highest "network externalities" for the educational and R&D-intensive
economic development pattern underlying the scenario. Regional differences
in settlement patterns persist. They range from fragmented, compact, but
large (i.e., 20+ million inhabitants) cities that depopulate their
respective rural hinterlands in Latin America to urban "corridors"
connected by high capacity communication and transport networks (in Asia).
Regional transport networks include high speed trains and maglevs, which
ultimately fuse short- and long-distance transport means into single
interconnected infrastructures. In some parts of the world high-tech cars
take the place that high-tech trains occupy in other parts.
The large urban agglomerates and the high transport demands of a high
material growth economy generate vast congestion constraints. These are
solved by applying market-based instruments (prices) rather than
regulation. Economic instruments include access and parking fees,
auctioning off the limited number of new car and truck licenses in
megacities, much along the lines of the current stringent Singapore model.
Therefore, even at very high income levels, car ownership rates could be
comparatively low in parts of the world. In extremely densely populated
areas, cars remain a luxury rather than a means of mass transport (viz.
Hong Kong). In areas with lower population density, car densities are high
(+1 car per inhabitant). Car fuels could be either oil, synfuels,
electricity, or hydrogen. Intercontinental transport is provided by
energy- and GHG-intensive hypersonic aircraft fuelled by methane or
hydrogen. They are the physical transport equivalent of the high capacity
virtual communication links of a truly global economy.
3.14 Environmental Concerns/Ecological resilience
Ecological resilience is assumed to be high. In and of themselves,
ecological concerns receive a low priority. Instead, the valuation of
environmental amenities is strictly in economic terms, e.g., a function of
affluence. Non-congestion, clean water and air, and recreational
possibilities in nature all assume increasing importance with rising
affluence, although preferences for environmental amenities may differ
across regions and income levels. For instance, urban air quality and
human health are valued highly even at income levels lower than those
prevailing in England, where stringent air quality measures were introduced
after the "killer smog" of 1952. Reduced particulate and sulphur air
pollution become a matter of major consumer preference at levels of $2,000
- 3,000/capita income in Asia. Altogether, the concept of environmental
quality changes from "conservation" of nature to active "management" --and
marketing-- of natural and environmental amenities and services.
3.2 Scenarios
The core bifurcation (with respect to GHG emissions) of the scenario family
unfolds around alternative paths of technology development in the
agriculture and energy sectors. In the energy sector, the central question
is how to manage the transition away from the current reliance on
conventional oil and gas. In the agricultural sector, the key issue
concerns land productivity.
Alternative technology bifurcations lead to a number of scenarios embedded
and consistent within the overall theme of "prosperity via high
techologies". All scenarios provide the high quantities of clean and
convenient energy forms and diverse, high quality food demanded in an
affluent world. Because technological change is cumulative, it can go in
alternative, mutually exclusive directions, i.e., changes become "path
dependent". Alternative directions unfold around the interrelated cluster
of variables of resource availability and conversion technologies in both
energy and agriculture. For instance, new technologies may enable humanity
to tap either the vast quantities of fossil resources existing in the form
of coal, unconventional oil, and gas with technologies that are both highly
economic, efficient, and clean in terms of traditional pollutants, such as
particulates or sulphur. Alternatively, technological change could unfold
favouring non-fossil technologies and resources, such as nuclear and
renewables.
A similar bifurcation unfolds in the agricultural sector. In one
sub-scenario, only incremental improvements are achieved in farming
practices and land productivity. This is combined with a gradual global
diffusion of meat-based diets. Both of these trends are land- (and
deforestation-) intensive. Alternatively, global agriculture could move in
the direction of genetically engineered, high productivity crops and
"sea-farming," combined with a quality- and health-oriented diet based on
fish and vegetables, both of which are relatively less land intensive. As
a result, GHG emissions range widely even for otherwise similar scenario
characteristics.
3.21 Energy Resources/Technology
Resource availability and technology are tightly interrelated. The "Golden
Economic Age" of high productivity growth results from substantial
technological innovation. Both contribute to economic growth, expansion of
accessible resources, and improved efficiency in resource use. Factor
productivity improvements occur across the board for agricultural land,
materials, and energy. Improvement rates largely follow long-term
historical trends and are entirely technology- and income- driven. Energy
intensity (total commercial and traditional primary energy use per unit of
GDP) improves at an aggregate global rate of 1.5 percent per year.
Improvement rates vary across regions as a function of distance from the
productivity frontier and the turnover rates of capital stock. Ceteris
paribus, improvement rates are higher in regions with currently lower
efficiency and greater than average GDP growth. This assumes no particular
policy intervention or additional price regulation apart from the ones
consistent with a free market environment (i.e. price subsidies are
removed, and full costing principles are established).
Per capita final energy use gradually converges as income gaps close.
Final energy use per capita in non-Annex-I countries would reach
approximately 85 GJ (2 tons of oil equivalent) by 2050 and approximately
125 GJ (3 toe) by 2100, i.e., about the current average of OECD countries
outside North America. Despite improvements in productivity and
efficiency, the high income levels lead to resource use close to the upper
bounds of the scenarios available in the literature. For instance, global
final energy use would increase to approximately 1000 EJ by 2100.
The scenarios developed are a function of the different directions taken by
technological change. The key question is which primary resources may
become economically accessible in the future, and which technologies will
become available to convert these primary resources into the final goods
and services demanded by consumers. In the energy area,
resources/technologies are key variables in determining the timing and
nature of the transition away from currently dominant conventional oil and
gas.
Four pathways are possible:
1. Progress across all resources and technologies.
2. "Clean coal" technologies: environmentally friendly except for GHG
emissions and possible resource extraction impacts.
3. "Oil/Gas": smooth transition from conventional to unconventional oil and
gas, tapping the vast occurrences of unconventional fossil fuels, including
methane clathrates.
4. "Bio-Nuclear": rapid technological progress in non-fossil supply and
end-use technologies, e.g. renewables, such as solar and biomass
combustion, nuclear and hydrogen-fuelled end-use devices, such as fuel cells.
For the scenario quantification, a number of contrasting cases,
characterised by the main energy form used in the second half of the 21st
century, have been evaluated with the aid of formal energy models:
1. The dominance of Non-Fossil fuels -- the "Bio-Nuclear" scenario (A1R).
2. The dominance of unconventional gas, including hydrates, and oil (A1G)
3. The dominance of "Clean Coal" (A1C)
A brief scenario taxonomy is given below.
Scenario
Dominant
Oil/Gas Resource
Technology Improvements
Fuel Availability Coal Oil/Gas Non-fossil
A1R Non-fossil Medium (<50 ZJ ) Low Medium High
A1G Oil/Gas High (>75 ZJ) Low High Low
A1C Coal Low (<35 ZJ) High Low Low
*
Depending on the assumed availability of oil and gas, (low/medium/high) and
corresponding improvements in production and conversion technologies for
coal, oil/gas, and non-fossil technologies, different energy systems
structures unfold. For instance, in the dynamic technology cases, liquid
fuels from coal or unconventional oil/gas resources would become available
at less than $30 /barrel, with costs falling further by about one percent
per year with exploitation of learning curve effects. Non-fossil
electricity (photovoltaics, new nuclear) would become available at costs of
less than 10 mills/kWh ($.01/kWh) and continue to improve further as a
result of learning curve effects. The basic premise of the "dynamic
technology" scenarios is that energy services could be delivered at
long-run costs not higher than today, but with technologies having
radically different characteristics, including environmental. In the event
that such technology dynamics do not materialise, energy costs and prices
would be significantly higher than suggested above -- illustrative model
runs suggest energy demand would be up to 20 percent lower for a fossil
scenario without significant cost improvements .
3.22 Agriculture
In the agricultural sector, two contrasting scenarios of land productivity
could unfold, depending on the nature of advances in agricultural
technologies. However, CO2 emissions from land use changes could range
from 0.5 (low) to 1.5 (high) GtC by 2030 and from -1 to -2 (low) to zero
(high) GtC emissions by 2100. In the latter case tropical forests
essentially become depleted as a result of land-use conversions for
agriculture and biomass fuel plantations. In the former case, land
productivity gains are so substantial that ploughing of marginal
agricultural land is no longer economically feasible and is abandoned,
following recent trends in the OECD. The resulting expansion of forest
cover leads to a net sequestration of atmospheric CO2.
3.23 Scenario Quantification
An initial scenario quantification in terms of population, GDP, energy use,
and CO2 emissions for the three energy resource/technology sub-scenarios is
summarised in Appendix 1 . The global scenario for 2100 is also summarised
in the form of a snowflake diagram. All scenario quantifications are
tentative and subject to revisions.
[Figure: "Snowflake" for A1 scenarios]
3.24 CO2 Emissions
The diverging pathways of resource availability and technological change
characteristic of the three scenarios examined result in a wide range of
annual CO2 emissions: from 10 to 33 GtC by 2100. It is interesting to note
that the emissions of the two "fossil fuel" sub-scenarios, "clean coal" and
"oil and gas," are quite close to each other (33 CtC versus 29 GtC).
Continued reliance on oil and gas, coupled with demand growth, explain the
emission patterns for the oil/gas scenario. Coal is the only fossil
resource available in the "clean coal" scenario. Therefore, over time coal
is increasingly required for conversion into premium fuels such as
synliquids and syngas. This conversion "deepening" leads to a feedstock
premium for coal and increases the market potential of non-fossil fuels.
CO2 emissions are therefore not as high as in traditional coal-intensive
scenarios.
4. Sustainable Development (B1)
The central elements of this scenario family include high levels of
environmental and social consciousness, successful governance including
major social innovation, and reductions in income and social inequality.
Successful forms of governance allow many problems which are currently hard
or difficult to resolve to fall within the competency of government and
other organisations. Solutions reflect a wide stakeholder dialogue leading
to consent on international environmental and social agreements. This is
coupled with bottom-up solutions to problems, which reflect wide success in
getting broad-based support within communities.
The concerns over global sustainable development, expressed in a myriad of
environmental and social issues, results in the eventual successful
management of the interaction between human activities and the biosphere.
While no explicit climate policy is undertaken, other kinds of initiatives
lead to lower energy use, and clean energy systems, which significantly
reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Besides cleaning up air quality, there is
emphasis on improving the availability and quality of water.
4.1 Key Scenario Drivers and their Relationships
4.11 Technological Development
High levels of technological development focused on achieving sustainable
development leads to high levels of material and energy saving, innovations
in emissions control technology, as well as labour productivity. The
latter is essential to support the rapid growth in personal income, given
that a major increase in labour force participation is implicit in the
equity assumptions. Technologies tend to be implemented in an industrial
ecology mode, implying a much more highly integrated form of industrial
production than at present. Information technology achieves a global
spread, and is fully integrated into production technologies. Advances in
international institutions permit the rapid diffusion of new technologies
-- R&D approaches two percent of GDP.
4.12 Population and Economic Development
Population -- reaches only 9 billion by 2xxx xxxx xxxxdue to a faster than
expected completion of the demographic transition arising from a large
increase of women in the labour force, universal literacy, and concern for
the environmental impacts of high population levels. The potential impacts
of ageing populations which emerge from this low level of population growth
are offset by relatively high levels of immigration, which reduce the
negative impacts of ageing populations on savings and the ability of
societies to adapt and implement new and cleaner technologies.
This world has a faster than expected transition from traditional to modern
economic sectors throughout the developing world. In addition, widespread
education leads to high labour productivity, and high labour force
participation. Migration serves to sustain the size of the labour force in
developed countries, which helps to maintain their growth in per capita
income. Developing countries experience few institutional failures,
enabling them to grow at or near the historical upper bounds of experience
given their per capita incomes.
This yields a world of high levels of economic activity, with significant
and deliberate progress being made with respect to international and
national inequality of income. The current order of magnitude differences
in income between developing and developed countries are reduced to a
factor of two, with moderate growth continuing to occur in OECD countries.
Gross World Product (GWP) reaches $350 trillion by 2100 and average global
incomes $40,000 per capita. Economic development is balanced and, given
the high environmental consciousness and institutional effectiveness, this
leads to a better quality environment, with many of the aspects of rapid
growth being anticipated and dealt with effectively. Active management of
income distribution is undertaken through use of taxes and subsidies. The
composition of final demand will evolve to a mix reflecting lower use of
materials and energy, thus easing the impact of high income levels.
4.13 Equity
In this world there is a preparedness to address issues of social and
political equity. The increases in equity, reflect a shift in values
which, with widespread education, leads to greater opportunity for all.
New social inventions, such as the Grameen Bank's micro-credit schemes, are
a significant contributor to an increase in institutional effectiveness and
equity improvement.
4.14 Communications, Settlement Patterns and Environment
The social innovations and effective governance rest on high levels of
communication, both in a passive (i.e. TV) and active sense. Governance
systems reflect high levels of consent from those affected by decisions,
and this consent arises out of active participation in the governance process.
Settlement patterns arise from design, and tend to reflect a distributed,
compact, city design structure. This results in high amenity levels, and
the careful design and location of these cities results in a lessening of
the natural disasters which plague many cities today. Advanced hazard
warning systems and careful design limit the impact of such disasters.
Low emission technologies, and careful management of land use, preservation
of large tracts of land, and active intervention to counteract the impacts
of imprudent societal actions strengthen the resilience of the ecological
system.
4.2 Scenarios
4.21 Energy Resources/Technology
Energy efficiency innovations, and successful institutional innovations
disseminating their use, result in much lower levels of energy use relative
to historic patterns. The forward-looking nature of societal planning
results in relatively smooth transitions to alternative energy systems as
conventional oil and gas resources dwindle in availability. There is major
use of unconventional natural gas as fuel supply during the transition, but
the major push is towards renewable resources such as solar and wind. The
impact of environmental concerns is a significant factor in the planning
for new energy systems.
Two alternative energy systems, leading to two sub-scenarios, are
considered to provide this energy:
1. Widespread expansion of natural gas, with a growing role for renewable
energy (scenario B1N). Oil and coal are of lesser importance, especially
post-2050. This transition is faster in the developed than in the
developing countries.
2. A more rapid development of renewables, replacing coal and oil; the bulk
of the remaining energy coming from natural gas (scenario B1R).
4.22 Scenario Quantification
Per capita incomes in the developed world are close to ___ in 2100, while
average per capita income in the developing world grows from ___ % of the
developed world in 1990 to ____ % in 2100. Energy per unit of output
continues to fall at about historical rates in the developed countries,
resulting in total energy use of ____ EJ in 2100. Rapid spread of
technology from developed to developing countries enables an energy growth
of ___ percent less than GDP, resulting in total energy use of ___ EJ in
the developing part of the world
An initial quantification of the scenarios in terms of population, GDP,
energy use, and CO2 emissions for the two energy resource/technology
scenarios is summarised in Appendix 1. The global scenario for 2100 is
also summarised in the form of a snowflake diagram. All scenario
quantifications are tentative and subject to revisions.
[Figure: "Snowflake" for B1 scenarios]
4.23 CO2 Emissions
The range of carbon in CO2 emissions for the scenarios is 7.5 to 20 billion
tons in 2100, reflecting 3 and 2 percent per year reductions in carbon per
unit of GDP
5. Divided World (A2)
In a retreat from the globalising trends of the previous century, the world
"consolidates" into a series of roughly continental economic regions.
Regions pursue different economic strategies based on the resources and
options available to them. Trade within economic regions increases, while
trade between regions is controlled by tariff and non-tariff barriers to
support the region's economic strategy. High income regions restrict
immigration and impose selective controls on technology transfer to
maintain high incomes for their residents.
High income regions encourage higher levels of education to increase the
productivity of their labour force. They impose restrictions on immigrants,
except skilled immigrants, to keep per capita incomes high. They also try
to impose selective restrictions on technology transfer to maintain the
productivity of their labour force.
Low income regions are only able to increase per capita incomes slowly.
They do not have the resources to invest in educating the labour force or
in research and development. Investment from other regions is constrained.
Thus exports are primarily products manufactured with low cost labour and
some natural resource-intensive products. Population growth is high
relative to high income regions. Income inequality becomes more pronounced
within low income regions and increases between regions.
Regions use non-tariff barriers, such as differences in standards and
labelling requirements, to limit trade. Trade is also dampened by
differences in tastes in products. These factors favour the use of
resources found within each region. Regions that have abundant coal
resources but very limited oil resources, for example, encourage use of
"local" coal by heavy industries and electric utilities while allowing
restricting free imports of crude oil and petroleum products .
5.1 Key Scenario Drivers and their Relationships
5.11 Population and Economic Development
Fertility rates vary among regions. North America, Northwest Europe and
Asia experience falling fertility rates and populations. The Middle East,
Africa, and to some extent, Southern Europe and South America see rising
population although the rate of growth decreases. This leads to a shift in
the world population balance from the Indian sub-continent and South East
Asia to the Middle East and Africa by the end of the century. World
population reaches 16 billion by 2100.
Regional economies emphasise self-sufficiency with wide variations in
growth levels. Average global economic growth is relatively low at around
2.5%/year, leading to a GWP of $250 trillion by 2100. Trade across regions
consists primarily of raw materials and semi-finished goods in a relatively
low trust world where dependence on other regions is minimised.
5.12 Government and Geopolitics
National boundaries become less important within the regions as an
increasing share of policy is agreed at the regional level. This allows
considerable cultural diversity within regions. Governmental style is also
diverse across regions. In some, government and religion strengthen their
links, in others, secular democracy is maintained or consolidated.
Education is strengthened in most regions with a deepening understanding of
cultural history and religion. The growing strength of the economic
regions, and their competing economic interests, lead to reduced
international co-operation. Global environmental, economic and social
issues are subject to relatively weak governance. Conflicts between ethnic
and religious groups within economic regions become less violent as a
result of economic pressures on the parties. Where ethnic and religious
violence persists, the groups are excluded from the economic region. Thus
wars occur in the boundary zones between economic regions. Wars may also
occur near regional boundaries for control of scarce natural resources.
5.13 Technology Developments
While underlying science is conducted in all regions an information about
scientific developments are available world-wide, consumption and
production patterns and hence, technology and practices, are determined by
local circumstances.
Research activity increases in all regions; in high income regions due to
the need to increase productivity with limited regional resources and in
low income regions due to the growing size of the population. Restrictions
on transfer of some technologies to other regions is widespread.
High income regions invest heavily in education to enhance labour
productivity. Some high-income regions move towards broad-based education
for a knowledge-based society. Others move towards practical education
(lots of science and engineering) for an advanced industrial society. Low
income regions are not able to invest as heavily in education, but the
levels (and future rates of economic growth, vary significantly.
Technological change is rapid in some regions, slow in others, with
industry adjusting to local resource endowments, cultural characteristics
and education levels.
5.14 Communication and Settlement Patterns
Languages become more uniform within regions, but globally more diverse.
Speakers of the main world languages are fairly evenly split. Computerised
translation eliminates the language barrier to technology diffusion and
economic development.
Urban concentration continues except in Europe and North America, which
move towards larger numbers of smaller cities and towns. Urban shares of
population in other countries rise to current OECD levels by 2020. While
there is free movement within most regions, there is very little migration
among regions. Refugee problems are confined to edge areas, for example,
Baltics and Tibet.
5.15 Environmental Concerns
Environmental management follow pragmatic paths: with rising incomes,
people become increasingly concerned first about urban pollution, then
about regional pollution, finally about global problems. In this world,
global environmental problems are discussed extensively but the will to
tackle them is lacking. Propensity to worry about the environment is
regionally variable. Sulphur emissions are rapidly reduced in South and
South East Asia due to the impacts on agriculture but increase in Africa
with exploitation of coal and minerals there.
5.2 Scenarios
Divided World is explored through a single scenario.
5.21 Resource Availability
Regions try to use their resource endowment for their economic advantage.
Regions with abundant energy and mineral resources use those resources
domestically and to produce exports (surplus to expected long-term needs).
Regions poor in energy and mineral resources will minimise their dependence
on these resources. High-income, resource-poor regions will develop as
service-based, dematerialised economies, while low-income, resource-poor
regions are forced to limit their consumption of resources.
High-income regions without indigenous oil and gas undergo a near-complete
conversion to an energy economy based on nuclear or renewable based
electricity and synthetic gases and liquids by 2050. India and China adopt
these technologies at the largely exhausting domestic coal reserves by
2050. Renewable input, zero waste industry is pioneered in South East Asia
and adopted in Europe, minimising mineral and fossil fuel requirements by
2050. Oil and gas-rich regions (North Africa, the Middle East, Central
Asia, Russia) continue to use fossil fuels but towards 2050 the falling
cost of renewable technology (wind and biomass in Russia, photovoltaic in
the other regions) begins to make them competitive even in these regions
5.22 Scenario Quantification
An initial quantification of the scenario in terms of population, GDP,
energy use, and CO2 emissions is summarised in Appendix 1. The global
scenario for 2100 is also summarised in the form of a snowflake diagram.
All scenario quantifications are tentative and subject to revisions.
[Figure: "Snowflake" for A2 scenarios]
5.23 CO2 Emissions
The level of carbon in CO2 emissions for the scenario is 15 billion tons in
2100 as only oil and gas rich regions continue to use fossil fuels.
6. Regional Stewardship (B2)
"Regional Stewardship" is based on a natural evolution of the present
institutional policies and structures. As such it does not incorporate
major geopolitical power shifts or fundamental technological
discontinuities. There is relatively low trust, global agreements are
difficult to reach and the result is 'multiple islands' with inward looking
policies.
This is a world of good intentions, which are not capable of being
implemented. The late 20th century value shift towards environmental
stewardship continues, for example as envisioned in the Cairo and Rio
Programs of Action, with increasing recognition of the importance of human
welfare and inequity. These concerns cannot be tackled at a global level
and are resolved regionally or locally. Environmental solutions are
tempered by the desire for balance with economic goals in many areas - but
poor governance means that meeting the needs of the poor and future
generations is hampered by limited prosperity.
Families think seriously about the fact that their offspring may be dealing
with a more ecologically stressed world, moreover one with limited
financial resources for dealing with such problems. Education levels are
high so that the ability of families to internalise global concerns in
their family planning decisions is also high. The relative stabilisation
of world population growth after 2050 leads to general optimism about the
ability of society to solve problems such as food and water supply.
6.1 Key Scenario Drivers and their Relationships
6.11 Population
Both local governance and environmental concerns limit population growth.
The world largely supports efforts to reduce unwanted births both as a
social service but also because there is an implicit belief that even
increasing populations have severe environmental consequences. Education
and welfare programs for the young and illiterate are widely pursued.
Population stabilises at 10.5 billion people by 2100. Since economic
growth is relatively slow, fertility rates do not decline strongly. But,
the effect of fertility rate declines on lowering population size outweigh
those of mortality rate decreases increasing population size.
The stabilisation of global population (largely after 2050) leads to a new
atmosphere for social planning. It becomes considerably easier than at
present for education, health care and pension programs. Age cohort sizes
are much more stable through time than at present, although of course,
overall ageing continues.
6.12 Economic Development
GWP grows to around 240 trillion $ in 2100 with a North/South income ratio
of approximately 7/1 (presently 13/1). Concerns about the ecological costs
of consumerist lifestyles receive wide attention and attempts are made,
first in industrial countries, but later in developing countries, to seek
satisfaction through community activities rather than high consumption.
Overall people are eager to find alternatives to the high income world of
materialism.
6.13 Governance
Governance is weak globally but strong nationally and regionally.
Deliberate policies to limit trade for environmental and social reasons
hinder the transfer of technologies. However pollution trading concepts
catch on as a way of driving down the costs of pollution control.
International alliances occur based on particular national circumstances,
such as in the development of biomass technologies. This fragmentation
gives rise to pockets of environmental and social justice activists.
Environmental policies vary widely across regions, for example in
acceptable sulphur emission levels. NGO and public interest groups are
strong, influential and busy.
6.14 Equity
While strong redistribution policies are enacted within regions to reduce
income disparity, income differences between regions persist globally
throughout the century and even increases in absolute terms, although the
relative inequity decreases. The mechanism by which global equity
increases relates in part to population dynamics: as fertility rates
decline in developing countries, the decrease in youth dependency ratios
leads to an increase in savings rate and strengthened economic growth
during the first half of the century. In the developed regions, by
contrast, ageing becomes an increasing drag on economic growth in helping
to converge global incomes, concerns about the persistence of income
inequality world-wide are swamped by the local concerns and conscious
policies to limit international trade.
6.15 Settlement Patterns
A strong deurbanization trend occurs in this world because of increasing
concern about the marginalization of the very poor that accompanies massive
urbanisation. There are also concerns about managing large transient
populations that migrate seasonally to cities for short term employment,
for example in the construction industry.
Immigration is controlled but accepted, partly to compensate for very low
fertility rates in some regions and partly to help economic development
worldwide without the problems of uncontrolled globalisation.
6.16 Environmental Policy
Environmental improvement is strongly pursued although regional policies
vary widely such as with sulphur controls. Marked reductions in S, CH4,
deforestation, CFCs and N2O occur and water quality is addressed.
Ecological resilience is not seen as high. The environment is viewed as
quite fragile and requiring careful policy stewardship. Resource
extraction is viewed as intrinsically problematic and scepticism persists
regarding the ability of society to prevent environmental disasters like
the Valdez oil spill and Kuwaiti oil fires. Indeed the world is
increasingly sensitive about and intolerant of such events and much tension
exists concerning this aspect of development. Environment groups lobby
hard on these themes and paint a picture of rapidly depleting natural
resources.
6.2 Scenarios
6.21 Energy Resources/Technology
Because of the concern about ecological fragility, alternative and
renewable energy systems are viewed with much hope and are socially and
politically encouraged. Biomass technologies and policies are invigorated.
The labour and land intensive developing countries pursue biomass
production while the capital intensive developed regions develop the
required technologies. A degree of co-operation coalesces about such
mutually symbiotic activities.
Consumers accept a rather long return in evaluating energy-efficiency
investments. Mass transit systems are very successful and profitable.
Advances in transportation technology are rapid.
Hydroelectric power is a constrained bag. Dams are viewed with disdain
because there are soon no more wild rivers anywhere and the rights of
indigenous people have been egregiously violated. Although they are
relatively clean from the perspective of carbon emissions, their effects on
indigenous people (mercury poisoning of fish, etc.) becomes unacceptable.
Decommissioning dams is widespread to restore pristine ecological systems
downstream.
Reduction in carbon intensity is not viewed as a policy goal but it
declines for other reasons. It is a frugal world with limited resource
availability and so the paradigm grows that it is less costly to save
energy than it is to buy it and use it. This spurs the development of
technologies that use carbon more efficiently. In addition the
accompanying emissions of NOx and SOx and tropospheric ozone are
increasingly viewed as unacceptable.
6.23 Scenario Quantification
An initial scenario quantification in terms of population, GDP, energy use,
and CO2 emissions for the scenario is summarised in Appendix 1.
Energy intensity declines at a rate of 1.3%/year to a value of 0.12
toe/$1000 in 2100. This represents a total global energy usage in 2100 of
1250 EJ, of which 300 EJ is oil and gas; 100 EJ coal and 900 EJ is
non-carbon renewables, with nuclear's role limited.
The global scenario for 2100 is also summarised in the form of a snowflake
diagram. All scenario quantifications are tentative and subject to revisions.
[Figure: "Snowflake" for B2 scenario]
6.24 CO2 Emissions
By 2100 CO2 emissions 11.5 GtC/year, of which 5 GtC/year is emitted by the
North and 6.5 GtC/year by the South. Carbon intensity declines at a rate
of 0.8%/year to 2100, to a value of 0.3 tC/toe, some 50% of today's value.
7. Scenario Comparisons
[To be written]
8. Conclusions
[To be written]
Appendix 1: Scenario Quantification
[To be written]
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachdavis.doc"
Attachment Converted: "c:eudoraattachdavis.rtf"
Anne JOHNSON
IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
E-Mail: johnson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Phone : xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax : xxx xxxx xxxx
Original Filename: 907525054.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Michael Prather <mprather@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: TAR_scenarios <scenarios@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, penner <penner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Prentice <colin@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Ramaswamy <vr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, derwent <rgderwent@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, isaksen <isaksen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, ehhalt <k.sieben@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: TAR/SRES urgent use scenarios
Date: Sun, 04 Oct 1998 14:17:xxx xxxx xxxx
xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx
Prather's comments on SRES emissions regarding the four WGI
chapters on radiative forcing.
THIS ADDRESSES ONLY THE URGENT NEED
TO GET THE CLIMATE SCENARIOS STARTED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
OVERALL: It is CRITICAL that the WGI chapters are involved in
and make decisions regarding the mapping of "emission scenarios"
onto "trace-gas/RF scenarios" (to then be used in generating
"climate scenarios"). This is needed so that the eventual
chapters will back these preliminary (and hurried) approaches and
present a consistent but updated (and more complete!) set of
similar RF calculations in the TAR. We should not be adding new
"volunteers" to calculate these forcings as has been suggested by
last week's notes until we clearly agree on the
rules/algorithms..
CO2: (WGI-Ch.3)
-----------------------
I have not heard from colleagues on Ch. 3 regarding carbon-cycle
models for these scenarios that would be consistent with their
pending chapter..
non-CO2 GASES: (WGI-Ch.4)
--------------------------------------
We need to make sure that the COMBINATION of adopted "atmospheric
chemistry" and emissions is consistent with recent observations.
It does not mean the total burden is on emissions. Once having
chosen the chemistry (i.e., 120 year "lifetime" for N2O today),
however, the current emissions are tied by observations. So we
will do as already stated "make emissions match observations" but
must be careful in the chapter to note this.
I see no obvious need to change the OH lifetimes (CH4, HFCs) and
the N2O lifetimes from the SAR. The debate over a trend in OH is
important for later analysis in the chapter. The key here is
for consistency with the past decade. The budget of 560 Tg(CH4)
/y is thus a balanced (steady-state) budget to match abundances
of about 1710 ppb, and the current increase of about 1-2 ppb/y
would then add about 3-5 Tg to this amount. Thus the rate of
growth of CH4 emissions in the SRES in one concern, but the
absolute level in the late 1990s is the most critical.
The IPCC97 Mosier & Kroeze N2O budget stands: natural = 9.0
TgN/y and anthrop = 7.2 TgN/y. Thus ALL of the N2O scenarios
need to be scaled. Is this by a time-independent offset (e.g., +
5.5 TgN/y for B2)? or do we multiply the anthropogenic by a
constant factor (e.g., 3 for B2)?
HFCs cannot be included as a bulk emission values since their
lifetimes are so varied. What could be done is to focus on a
single one as a surrogate, e.g., HFC-134a is the dominant RF from
the IS92a options calculated in the SAR. Is this still so? We
need to look at the projected HFC industry as in the last WMO
report.
O3 - as part of the IPCC/Aviation assessment (under SAR, now in
final government review) we spent considerable effort in
calculating the changes in O3 and the associated RF. This
included both changes due to aircraft alone and that due to
increases in CH4, CO, NOx, VOC described in IS92a. The 3-d
tropospheric chemistry models generally agreed upon the O3
changes, and it looks as though we shall be able to take the SAR
to the next step and predict changes in tropospheric ozone with a
community consensus. (The results were only for IS92a 2015 and
2050 atmospheres, RF's not fully analyzed for background , of
order 0.2 W/m2 for 2050.)
For the AOGCM scenarios I propose that we use these 2050 delta-O3
scenarios to "deliver" a zonal, annual mean O3 RF as a simple
function of latitude. It would be easier that transmitting the
perturbed O3 patterns to the AOGCMs and would accomplish the
primary goal of including the O3 RF. The IS92a 2050 pattern
would be scaled to the amount of NOx emitted and CH4
concentration (maybe). This is probably OK for now, but of
course the correlation of NOx and CO emissions in generating O3
and OH changes is "current science" that needs to be evaluated in
the chapter. Also the regional aspects of CO and NOx emissions
affect the O3 perturbation.
*****************************************************************
I would PROPOSE that WGI-Ch.4 define the algorithms (e.g., CH4
lifetime @ 1700 ppb plus
feedback factor and how to implement it) along with the
constraints of the 1990s and then let
the SRES scenario builders come up with a consistent set and send
these on to the AOGCMs.
*****************************************************************
SULFUR & other AEROSOLS: (WGI-Ch.5)
-------------------------------------------------------
The AOGCMs should NOT use their own sulfur cycle for the first of
the climate scenarios. There is little doubt that all will
produce vastly different negative RFs and hence different
regional climate response. As I remember listening to the
arguments for preparing these climate scenarios, the PRIMARY goal
is to assess how well/consistently we can predict future climate
and especially regional changes given a set of forcings.
Likewise, we do not want these scenarios generated from different
time lines for CO2, CH4, and O3 because the models have different
cycle for these gases. So why S? While many of these models may
have scientifically excellent S cycles and include indirect
impacts on cloud formation, this task (i.e., comparison of S
models in GCMs) should be the second tier of experiments.
Given the primary goals of these climate simulations by the
AOGCMs, it would seem best to specify a simple albedo/RF by lat-
long, ONE THAT Chapter 5 of the new TAR would advocate and
support in its chapter. (e.g., what is suggested by Chapter 4
for O3 above) For example, the current geographic pattern of
direct sulfate forcing has been studied and will obviously be
reviewed/summarized by WGI - Chapter 5; this could be scaled to
total S emissions, especially since they are dropping in most of
the SRES emission scenarios. It would still provide a basic test
of our predictions of regional climate across the AOGCMs.
There is nothing here to develop scenarios for other
anthropogenic aerosol forcings that appear to be important (i.e.,
organics and soot).
summary RF: (WGI-Ch.6)
-------------------------------
A potential issue here is the ability to de-convolve the
emissions and RFs per sector.
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
--
Michael J. Prather, Prof. mprather@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Earth System Science Dept xxx xxxx xxxx/fax-3256
UC Irvine, CA 92xxx xxxx xxxxhttp://www.ess.uci.edu
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ajaffe@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, janzen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jaszay@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jefferson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, c.j.jepma@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gjjenkins@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ejo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, johnson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, joos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tyjung@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lijf@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, stephen_karekezi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kasiwagi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kates@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Pekka.Kauppi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hskhesh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ger.klaassen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, alexey.kokorin@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kolstad@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kopp@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kram@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, krankino@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, helmut.kuehr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lambermp@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, p.j.kuikman@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, snorre.kverndokk@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dlashof@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, nleary@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, emilio@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hoesung@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lelieveld@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lennon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mdlevine@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Bo.lim@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pvanderlinden@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lorents.lorentsen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, loulou@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, vc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, nmabey@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, karl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wrmldc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hssam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gum@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, marbe@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, omasera@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, n_matsuo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, j45662a@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, scentr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Pfohomasters@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, archie_mcculloch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mack.mcfarland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, doug.d.mckay@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, merylyn.hedger@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gmeira@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gph200@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Bert Metz <Bert.Metz@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, laurie.michaelis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, roberta@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, minami@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, irvingm@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wmoomaw@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, moorcroft@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, bun@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, amosier@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, richard.moss@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, munasinghe@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ceest@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, G.J.NABUURS@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, anajam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, naki@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, enikitina@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, snishiok@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, noble@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, norgaard@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, T.Oriordan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, r.odingo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, oosterma@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, michael@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pachauri@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jpalmisano@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pjh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jparikh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, alberto@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, alberto@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hm_pitcher@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, nsprasad@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, vxt_copr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lkprice@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, raymond.prince@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, atiq@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, bcas@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, kramakrishna@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, praskin@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ravi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, p.read@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rrichels@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, johnr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rogner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, m.rosegrant@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, daler@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, j.rotmans@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, yeruqiu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, w.sachs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, asankovski@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, sarukhan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dinkopib@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jasathaye@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, john@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, schimel@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, uvu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, schlesin@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, shs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, seroa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ravi.sharma@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, shechter@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jramses@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, leena@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, shukla@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ksims@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, r.e.sims@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, siniscalco@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ssmith@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, vsokol@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ceest@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, birger.solberg@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, solomon@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, robert_stavins@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, stigson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, john.stone@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, fb@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, depas3lh@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tt-tomi@q.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp, thtieten@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, timmer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dtirpak@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, richard.tol@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ratolmos@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, toman@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dpid@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ferenc.toth@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, willemijn.tuinstra@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, john.turkson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, elsd@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, s.c.vandegeijn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, vandril@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, j.vanham@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ekko.vanierland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gerrit@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, vanrooijen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, lvanwie@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, v.vandeweerd@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pier.vellinga@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, aviel.verbruggen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, A.Vollering@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, euvw@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wake@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, davidw@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hwatanab@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rwatson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, weyant@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wilcoxen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, michael.williams@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, wuebbles@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, xxiaoshi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, myamagu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, yamaji@yamaji.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp, F.D.Yamba@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, fy1@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ybema@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gyohe@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, yukawa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, PZhou@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: IPCC Emissions Scenarios
Date: Fri, 18 Dec 1998 15:34:41 +0100
LS
As you may recall, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is
in the process of preparing a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES).
Recently, it has been agreed that these scenarios are to play an important
role in IPCC's Third Assessment Report. The Terms of Reference of this
Special Report include a so-called Open Process to stimulate input from a
community of experts much broader than the writing team. This Open Process
has started in August 1998 and was planned last until the end of the year.
Because of the late date of this message we decided to extent this deadline
until January 10 now. A website (sres.ciesin.org) is managed by the Center
for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) in the United
States in collaboration with the Energy Research Foundation (ECN) in the
Netherlands, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) of Working Group III on
Mitigation of IPCC in the Netherlands, and the International Institute of
Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, the home institution of the
co-ordinator of the SRES Report, dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic. Three types of
input are invited: (a) new scenarios (preferably from the peer-reviewed
literature) that have not been taken into account by the writing team, (b)
new quantification of the proposed SRES scenarios based on storylines, and
(c) suggestions for improvements of the material developed until now.
Several of you have responded to an earlier request for input into this
open process. Thank you for that input. Amongst other things on the basis
of input received so far, recently the information on the website has been
improved considerably. The writing team of the report has now started to
actually draft their report, but can still take into account reactions to
this new information as published through the website, in principle until
31 December 1998. Herewith I would like to invite you to explore the site
(again) and provide us with your comments.
PLEASE DO SO USING THE FACILITIES OF THE WEBSITE, DO NOT USE THE EMAIL
ADDRESS OF THE SENDER OF THIS MESSAGE OR THE EMAIL GROUP LIST ABOVE!!!!
On behalf of Dr. Nakicenovic, thank you very much for your support to this
important endeavour!
Dr. Rob Swart
Head, Technical Support Unit
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III: Mitigation
P.O. Box 1
3720 BA Bilthoven
Netherlands
xxx xxxx xxxx
email: rob.swart@xxxxxxxxx.xxx or ipcc3tsu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Original Filename: 917644194.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Janice Darch <J.Darch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: env.faculty@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, env.researchstaff@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: EN99:04 UKRO - European News (29 January 1999) (fwd)
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 16:09:54 GMT
Dear All, The most pertinent document is item one on copyright. Some ENv policy documents are also included as
item5.
#Janice
Forwarded Message:
From: Helen Self <H.Self@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 14:32:36 GMT
Subject: EN99:04 UKRO - European News (29 January 1999) (fwd)
To: d.chadd@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, dean.wam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Dora.K@uea, e.banakas@uea,
e.doy@uea, f.littlewood@uea, g.turner@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, h.brownlee@uea,
j.casey@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, j.darch@uea, j.johnson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, j.schostak@uea,
j.steward@uea, j.watson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, m.silbert@uea, m.stallworthy@uea,
mrs@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, odg.gen@uea, r.mcbride@uea, r.mclarty@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
r.sales@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, r.sassatelli@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, t.prime@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
v.koutrakou@uea
Forwarded Message:
From: ukro.ukro <ukro.ukro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Date: Fri, 29 Jan 1999 12:45:25 +0000
Subject: EN99:04 UKRO - European News (29 January 1999)
To: g.l.a.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, geoff.g.wood@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
costas.kaldis@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, david.elliott@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
shabtay.dover@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, elosuniv@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, eoscmemb@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,
elosresc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
===============================================
EN99:04 UKRO - European News (29 January 1999)
===============================================
News on non-Framework Programme 5, programmes & policy
===============================================
GENERAL:
1. ESF on Copyright Law
2. GENERAL - Policy documents
LIFE SCIENCES:
3. DG V - Newsletter on Alzheimer's Disease
4. Microbiology - Industrial Platform
ENVIRONMENT:
5. ENVIRONMENT - Policy documents
ENERGY:
6. Synergy - International Cooperation in Energy
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES:
7. Public-Sector Information
INDUSTRY & TECHNOLOGIES:
8. Results - Pilot Projects on Benchmarking
9. Communication on Industrial Policy
EDUCATION:
10. Leonardo Database on Cordis
REGIONAL FUNDS:
11. Mid-term Review for Structural Funds
===============================================
1. ESF on Copyright Law
The European Science Foundation is warning that current plans for new EU
copyright laws, if left unchanged, could harm the international
competitiveness of European research. The Commission's draft Directive
harmonising aspects of copyright will shortly be debated by the Council of
Ministers. The ESF is calling for changes to be made to the wording of one
of the Directive's key articles which deals with 'exceptions' to the
proposed laws to ensure that it doesn't cause legal and financial headaches
for Europe's researchers.
The Foundation supports the Commission's objectives of improving the
protection of intellectual property as technological developments make it
ever easier for pirates to duplicate and distribute copyright material.
But it warns that this should not be at the expense of Europe's ability to
carry out research. Reflecting widespread concern in its Member
Organisations, the Foundation argues that the draft Article 5, which deals
with 'exceptions' to the proposed laws, "could result in research being
treated differently in different countries across Europe". As presently
written, the Article sets out an exhaustive list of permissible exceptions
to the directive, but it leaves to Member States the interpretation and
implementation of these 'exceptions'. The effect of this could be that
some researchers might find themselves in a worse position than at present
regarding their access to and use of published material. Given the
differences in national legislation between Member States, the ESF
recognises it may be difficult to draft and agree prescriptive legislation
for 'exceptions'.
The Foundation is recommending, therefore, that a clause be added to the
Directive allowing for the inclusion of all current 'exceptions' set out in
national legislation. Other suggested revisions include the need to ensure
that 'scientific research' is interpreted in a broad sense, with research
in the humanities and arts being explicitly included. In addition, the ESF
suggests that the current reference to 'non-commercial' research could
cause confusion, as it would be very difficult to differentiate between
commercial and non-commercial research in most academic settings. To avoid
this, it recommends the introduction of a 'public good' definition of
research, which could form an 'exception' to the Directive. The
Foundation's statement also points out that the Directive's current
reference to the possibility of Member States exempting the use of work
"provided that such use exclusively serves the purpose of illustration for
teaching or scientific research" is ambiguous. It could be interpreted
that there is such a thing as 'illustration for research' and that any
'exception' did not apply to research in general. A simple rewording of
the sentence to read "sole purpose of scientific research or for
illustration for teaching" would clarify the 'exception'.
The European Commission's draft "Directive on the Harmonisation of Certain
Aspects of Copyright and Related Rights in the Information Society" is
available on-line at http://europa.eu.int/comm/dg15/en/index.htm
FURTHER INFORMATION: Johanne Martinez, Information Officer, European
Science Foundation, tel 0xxx xxxx xxxx, fax 0xxx xxxx xxxx, email:
jmartinez@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, URL: http://www.esf.org
2. GENERAL - Policy documents
Recent policy documents issued by the European institutions. Full titles
and details appear on the UKRO web site under the subject listings:
* Community action programme in the field of Civil Protection
* Action programme for customs in the Community
* Further actions in the fight against trafficking in women
* Further actions in the fight against trafficking in women
* Better lawmaking 1998: a shared responsibility Commission report to the
European Council
* Determination of the person liable for payment of value added tax
* Legal aspects of electronic commerce in the internal market
* General framework for Community activities in favour of consumers
* Action programme for customs in the Community
3. DG V - Newsletter on Alzheimer's Disease
The first edition of the Alzheimer Europe quarterly newsletter has been
published by DG V (Public Health). The newsletter is intended to draw
attention to the aims and activities of Alzheimer Europe, a grouping of
national organisations dealing with Alzheimer's disease. The newsletter
includes news of research, events and conferences relevant to the field. It
will focus on important developments in the European institutions which
affect people with dementia and is also intended to be a platform for the
exchange of ideas between organisations and institutes active in the field
of Alzheimer's disease. Each issue will include reports on EC-funded
transnational projects, beginning in the first edition with London's
Institute of Psychiatry EUROCARE project. The next edition of the
newsletter will be published towards the end of March 1999.
FURTHER INFORMATION: Alzheimer Europe, tel 00xxx xxxx xxxx, fax 00xxx xxxx xxxx
972,email: info@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, URL: http://www.alzheimer-europe.org
4. Microbiology - Industrial Platform
The Industrial Platform for Microbiology, a ginger group of EU-funded
companies and researchers, has decided to change the focus of its
activities. It will now aim to provide a forum for EU industrial
microbiologists to discuss research and development strategies, scientific
aspects of regulatory developments in applied life sciences, and
professional issues such as education and training in the field. The
Industrial Platform for Microbiology was originally established to organise
information exchange between EU-funded companies interested in using the
results of EU funded projects and academics working on microbiology
research and development projects. Its members will meet again in Brussels
in February 1999 to discuss a draft "code of conduct" for companies
involved in bioprospecting activities.
FURTHER INFORMATION: Anne-Marie Prieels, Tech-Know Consultants, tel 0032 58
xxx xxxx xxxx, email: anne.marie.prieels@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, URL: http://www.tech-know.be
5. ENVIRONMENT - Policy documents
Recent policy documents issued by the European institutions. Full titles
and details appear on the UKRO web site under the subject listings:
* Present situation and prospects for radioactive waste management
* Minimum criteria for environmental inspections in the Member States
* Cooperation in the field of accidental marine pollution
* Limitation of emissions of volatile organic compounds due to the use of
organic solvents
* Review clause Environmental and health standards four years after the
accession of Austria, Finland and Sweden to the E. U.
* Application of aerial-survey and remote-sensing techniques to the
agricultural statistics for 1xxx xxxx xxxx
* Financial instrument for the environment
* Forestry strategy for the E. U.
* Control of transboundary movements of hazardous wastes and their
disposal
* Voluntary participation by organisations in a Community eco-management
and audit scheme
* Remote sensing applied to agricultural statistics during the period
1xxx xxxx xxxx
6. Synergy - International Cooperation in Energy
The Council has announced a Decision (1999/23/EC) adopting a multiannual programme to promote
international cooperation in the energy sector
(1xxx xxxx xxxx). According to the Decision, within the European Union's Energy
Framework Programme (see EN39:98, item 11), a specific programme for
reinforcement of international cooperation in the energy field will be
implemented from 1998 to 2002 ('Synergy programme').
The objectives of this programme are to provide assistance to third
countries with the definition, formulation and implementation of energy
policy, and to promote industrial cooperation between the Community and
third countries in the energy sector. The main tasks of the Synergy
programme are to help achieve the Community's energy objectives:
competitiveness, security of supply, and protection of the environment.
The financial reference for the Synergy programme will be ECU 15 million.
Of this, ECU 6m will be for the period 1998 to 1999. The finances for the
period between 2000 and 2002 will be reviewed if the amount ECU 9m is not
consistent with the financial perspective for that period.
Supported activities are:
* Energy policy advice and training;
* Energy analyses and forecasting;
* Energy dialogue and exchanges of information on energy policy, notably by
means of organisation of conferences and seminars;
* Support to regional transboundary coooperation;
* Improvement of the Framework for industrial cooperation on energy.
According to this Decision, NO FUNDING MAY BE GRANTED TO RESEARCH,
development, or demonstration projects.
FURTHER INFORMATION: OJ L 7 of 13 January 1999, p.23.
7. Public-Sector Information
The European Commission has decided to publish a Green Paper on how the
information gathered by government departments and other public bodies can
be used to provide the greatest benefit for citizens and businesses in
Europe. A lot of information gathered by public bodies for carrying out
their duties could be used by the multimedia industry for developing new
products and services. Citizens could make better use of their rights if,
for example, information was readily available on the conditions for
working, studying or living as a pensioner in other Member States. Many
people would like to have full information on the tax regulations for
cross-border purchases. The competitiveness of businesses could be
increased if they had a quick and easy means of finding out what the
regulations and procedures are for exporting to other countries. All this
information exists, but the technical and legal procedures and terms under
which the Member States make it available are uncoordinated and therefore
not very transparent for citizens and business. The Green Paper calls for
these matters to be discussed and asks questions about how the situation
can be improved.
FURTHER INFORMATION: http://ww.echo.lu/legal/en/access/access.html
8. Results - Pilot Projects on Benchmarking
Results from four pilot projects on benchmarking framework conditions - in
the fields of professional qualification, logistics, the impact of new
information technologies (NITs) on company organisation, and the financing
of innovation - are reported in the January issue of the newsletter of the
European Association of Development Agencies (EURADA).
The lessons drawn included:
* Companies located in peripheral regions suffer from the poor quality of
infrastructures, expensive logistical services and weaknesses in the field
of transnational cooperation;
* The authorities should support the effective use of NIT and the
enhancement of NIT-related structures;
* SMEs lack NIT qualifications and skills;
* Business Angels play a lesser role in innovation in Europe than in the
US, probably due to tax- and revenue-related problems;
* Even though it remains below the number of such companies operating in
the US, the number of venture capital companies operating in Member States
of the EU is rising (750 versus 1800);
* Generally speaking and in comparison with the US and Israel, Europe
suffers from a deficit in terms of the ability to evaluate technological
risks and from a lack of initiatives to support faster interaction between
universities and companies;
* Education policies should be more practical and in-company training
should be fully integrated in the programmes of higher education
institutions;
* Closer links should be promoted between industry and the educational
system;
* The skills which new workers lack most upon entry to the labour market
are (a) knowledge of English, (b) computer literacy, (c) knowledge about
the industrial world, and (d) adaptability.
FURTHER INFORMATION: EURADA, Avenue des Arts 12/7, B-1210 Brussels, tel
0xxx xxxx xxxx; fax 0xxx xxxx xxxx, email: info@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, URL:
http://www.benchmarking-in-europe.com
9. Communication on Industrial Policy
The Commission has adopted a communication launching an open debate with
the EU's different political, economic and social players on the
orientation of a new industrial policy with a view to addressing the
challenges of globalisation and accelerated technological changes. The
communication diagnoses European industry's weaknesses and proposes a
series of measures to promote industrial competitiveness.
The communication diagnoses the weaknesses of European industry:
* Europe does not have a strong presence in the services sector;
* European enterprises resort to insufficient externalisation;
* Specialisation remains underdeveloped in sectors with high growth, highly
differentiated products and requiring a strong marketing strategy;
* The European audiovisual sector is in an unfavourable competitive
position;
* European enterprises form relatively few alliances in advanced technology
areas;
* The amounts invested by risk capital funds are insufficiently oriented
towards new and high- technology industries;
* European enterprises can access financial markets only with difficulty;
* The level of R&D spending in terms of EU GDP is still below that of its
principal global economic partners;
* The exploitation of research results is not efficient enough;
* The EU suffers from high costs and the complexity of procedures for
achieving intellectual property protection in Europe;
* European enterprises put very few joint research projects in place.
To counteract this situation and stimulate European competitiveness, the
communication emphasises the following proposals, among others:
* Reinforce intangible investment, by adapting the systems of accrediting
competencies and by improving the level of and return from research
resources, especially through a better system of intellectual property
protection;
* Develop human resources by acting on the educational system, by
encouraging the spirit of enterprise and various forms of social innovation
and social cohesion;
* Promote the access of European enterprises to the world market, by
accelerating the exploitation of the competitive advantages of the Single
Market;
* Promote fair rules of the game at a world level in view of the new round
of WTO negotiations (that is by developing an observation system for public
support to research in industrialised countries);
* Develop the dialogue between industry and public authorities and forms of
self-regulation (protection of consumers and users);
* Improve financing by eliminating institutional and regulatory barriers to
the development of venture capital and improving the tax regime applied to
venture capital;
* Adaptation of the rules to the context of the information society and
electronic commerce (agreements such as the "International Charter").
FURTHER INFORMATION: Press release IP/99/33.
10. Leonardo Database on Cordis
DG XXII and Cordis have approved plans to include the products database of
the Leonardo da Vinci Programme on the Cordis service. The publication of
the Leonardo Da Vinci products database on Cordis should allow its
continual update. This is hoped to improve interaction between the owners
of products and their users. The schedule for the launch of this database
on Cordis has yet to be confirmed.
FURTHER INFORMATION: DG XXII, fax 0xxx xxxx xxxx, URL:
http://europa.eu.int/en/comm/dg22/leonardo.html
11. Mid-term Review for Structural Funds
The European Commission approved a report on the mid-term review for the
poorest (Objective 1) and sparsely populated regions (Objective 6) in the
European Union (EU) for the present programming period (1xxx xxxx xxxx). It
gives an overview of the mid-term evaluations carried out for the
Structural Funds programmes during the current programming period. The
report shows important achievements, e.g. when it comes to reducing
disparities in basic infrastructure, energy diversification or
environmental improvements.
URL: http://www.inforegio.org/wbdoc/docoffic/official/repor_en.htm
===============================================
Commission press releases (reference 'IP/year 2 digits/number') can be
obtained from 'RAPID' at http://europa.eu.int/en/comm/spp/rapid.html
Log in as 'guest' with password 'guest'.
European documents (ISBNs) and Official Commission documents (reference
'Com (year 2 digits) number') are available from your local European
Documentation Centre at: http://www.cec.org.uk/relays/relhome.htm or from
the Stationery Office, Tel 0xxx xxxx xxxx, fax 0xxx xxxx xxxx.
Please note that European News is sent directly to European Liaison
Officers only. ELOs can decide how to disseminate it within their
institution. European News is accessible via the web at
http://www.ukro.ac.uk (subscribers only).
INFORMATION FROM THIS PUBLICATION MUST NOT BE FORWARDED OR COPIED OUTSIDE
OF YOUR INSTITUTION. No liability shall be incurred by UKRO for use of the
information provided in this publication.
UKRO
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Tel: 0xxx xxxx xxxx/ 1535
Fax: 0xxx xxxx xxxx
Email: ukro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
URL: http://www.ukro.ac.uk
===============================================
??
________________________________
Dr J P Darch
j.darch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Research Administrator, School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK
Tel: +44 (0)1xxx xxxx xxxxFax: +44 xxx xxxx xxxx/507719
Original Filename: 933254004.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Jennifer F Crossley <J.Crossley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: masking of WWF maps
Date: Thu Jul 29 09:13:xxx xxxx xxxx
Jenny,
Thanks for these.
After entering into debate with Barrie Pittock, I have decided to shift to using the 1 sigma level as a mask for all maps. This will not affect any of the temperature plots you have done until now, but means that the China and C.America precipitation maps will need re-drawing using 1 sigma. Please let me know when these are done.
Note also for Russia and that everything from now on for WWF (both T and P) should use 1 sigma as the mask.
Sorry about this and I realise this squeezes even more time away from the RCM.
Given what has happened and your role in producing these plots, you may interested in the exchanges I have had with Barrie Pittock - it illustrates nicely the nuances of presenting climate scenarios in different Fora. Read these three emails in reverse order.
Mike
___________________________________________
Dear Mike,
Thank you for your careful consideration of my "trenchant comments". I
am now much happier with what you are doing, and indeed grateful for
your hard work and enterprise is getting the new scenarios out so
quickly for both IPCC and WWF. Shifting to a one standard deviation is
certainly an improvement, along with some discussion of possible changes
in extremes. I fully appreciate that analysis of daily output is a
time-consuming future task, but meantime an appropriate caveat is
needed. Maybe an additional upfront paragraph discussion of the very
issues we have discussed re providing best estimates of changes, even if
their statistical detectability can only be established after a long
time period has elapsed, would be useful?
I should perhaps explain my delicate position in all this. As a retired
CSIRO person I have somewhat more independence than before, and perhaps
a reduced sense of vested interest in CSIRO, but I am still closely in
touch and supportive of what CAR is doing. Also, I have a son who is now
a leading staff member of WWF in Australia and who is naturally well
informed on climate change issues. Moreover, Michael Rae, who is their
local climate change staffer, is a member of the CSIRO sector advisory
committee (along with some industry people as well) and well known to
me. So I anticipated questions from WWF Australia, and from the media
later when the scenarios are released, regarding the scenarios. I did
not want to be in the position of feeling the need to seriously question
in public their presentation or interpretation. You have allayed my
fears on that score, so that is great.
Roger may still follow up with some more detailed comments he is
collating from people in CAR.
Best regards,
Barrie.
________________________________
Barrie,
Thanks for your trenchent comments re. the scenario maps.
Let's get the bit about extremes out of the way because in what WWF have asked us to do (or what Tim Carter and I have done for WGII) we cannot produce new detailed analyses for all the 15 regions we are doing of GCM-based changes in daily or sub-daily events. Clearly for (some, many?) impacts such changes will be important and we (do and will) make comments to this effect in various places. [By the way, we do show some analyses of changes in the probability of extreme *seasons*, if not extreme days].
Your main point of contention, however, is about the portrayal of changes in mean seasonal T and P (and we are talking about 30-year climate averages here).
My reason for introducing the idea of only showing changes in T and P that *exceed* some level of 'natural' variability was a pedagogic one, rather than a formal statistical one (I concede that using '95% confidence' terminology in the WWF leaflet is misleading and will drop this). And the pedagogic role of this type of visual display is to bring home to people that (some, much or all of) GCM simulated changes in mean seasonal precip. for some regions do *not* amount to anything very large in relation to what may happen in the future to precip. anyway - a classic example is the African Sahel where *none* of the GCMs get precip. changes anything like as large as have been seen this century.
The reasons for this may be 1) because the GHG signal is poorly defined, i.e., a scatter of GCM P changes both above and below zero, and/or 2) because even with a tighter bunching of GCM predictions in one direction these may still not be large relative to 'natural' variations in 30-year mean precip. My approach of taking a pseudo-ensemble of GCMs, standarising and scaling and then plotting the Median *in relation to* natural variations is I think one of the more elegant ways of showing this. Of course, we could define natural variability to be the 1 sigma rather than the 2 sigma level, or simply the interquartile range of control climates or even just the xxx xxxx xxxxpercentile range. What one chooses is a matter of judgement and probably for WWF I should use a less extreme threshold than 2 sigma.
The point behind all this is to emphasise that precip. changes are less well-defined than temp. changes *and* that we should be thinking of adaptation to *present* levels of precip. variability, rather than getting hung up on the problems of predicting future precip. levels. This pedagogic thinking is hard to communicate in a short WWF brochure.
Your concern about my message is well taken, however, and I intend to remove any reference to 95% confidence levels, to re-word the text to indicate that we are plotting precip. changes only 'where they are large relative to natural variability', and to reduce my threshold to the 1 sigma level of HadCM2 control variability (e.g. this has the effect of showing precip. changes for the majority of Australia even in the B1 scenario).
But I do not intend to abandon the concept. I think it important - even for Greenie groups - to present sober assessments of magnitudes of change. Thus making it clear that future changes in T are better defined that future changes in P, and also to point out that future emissions (and therefore climate change) may be as low as the B1 scenario (is B1 climate change negligible? I almost think so), whilst also being possibly as high as A2 is I think very important.
The alternative is to think that such a more subtle presentation is too sophisticated for WWF. But I think (hope) not.
Thanks again Barrie for forcing me to think through this again.
Mike
_________________________________________________________
At 17:52 28/07/99 +1000, you wrote:
>Hello Mike,
>
>I am giving a preliminary response to your suggestion that Peter Whetton
>comment on your scenario material in case there is some urgency. Peter
>did write an email last Friday night before going on a week's holiday,
>but unfortunately the email system failed and it probably did not go and
>has been lost. He asked Roger Jones to respond on behalf of the group
>but Roger is snowed under at present.
>
>Peter and I did discuss it on Friday. Our main concern (although there
>are other more detailed ones) is your use of the 95% confidence limits
>of natural climatic variability as some sort of threshold for change.
>This is a reasonable thing to do if you are addressing the question of
>whether climatic change will be detectable at a "scientific level" of
>confidence, but that is certainly not the question I would expect WWF to
>want answered, nor is it the one most relevant to giving policy advice.
>The relevant question is "What is the best estimate of climate change,
>given the assumption that increasing GH gases will cause change?". The
>contrast between these questions, the statistical criteria they require,
>and thus the answers, is what I was driving at in my comment on your
>paper in Nature. It is a very serious difference with serious
>consequences for how people will interpret your advice. The results as
>you present them suggest that many areas will have precipitation changes
>(particularly) which are small compared to natural variability, and
>therefore it does not matter. But if the change in mean is some
>appreciable fraction of natural variability, say, 50%, that is a very
>serious matter which ought to concern policy makers, because it will
>have cumulative impacts, especially in regard to large changes in the
>frequency and magnitude of extremes (floods and droughts). Surely you
>understand that! - refer to the standard diagrams of the impact on
>extremes of shifting a normal distribution by one standard deviation.
>
>What you are doing is using a strict Type I error criterion when others
>(WWF?) might think a Type II error criterion is more suitable (the
>Precautionary Principle), and reasonable people (like me of course!?)
>think a criterion in between which measures risk of serious impacts is
>what is needed for policymakers. The reference I gave in my comment in
>Nature may not be the best - but look at my argument in QJRMS, 109,
>pp.xxx xxxx xxxx(1983) for a clearer exposition on this point.
>
>The other related matter is that your scenarios for WWF, and for that
>matter for IPCC WG2, do not discuss the importance of changes in
>extremes, which are arguably the most important changes, however poorly
>understood they may be at present. This and the other caveats you are
>intending to include in the IPCC material, re scaling, sulfate aerosol
>effects, longer timescales, and change after stabilisation of
>concentrations, should be in the WWF material also, even if they
>complicate things a bit (I have not checked whether some of that is in
>your WWF stuff as yet).
>
>I would be very concerned if the material comes out under WWF auspices
>in a way that can be interpreted as saying that "even a
>greenie group like WWF" thinks large areas of the world will have
>negligible climate change. But that is where your 95% confidence limit
>leads.
>
>Sorry to be critical, but better now than later!
>
>Best regards,
>
>Barrie.
>
>Dr A. Barrie Pittock
>Post-Retirement Fellow*, Climate Impact Group
>CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB 1, Aspendale 3195, Australia
>Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx, Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx, email:
><barrie.pittock@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>WWW: http://www.dar.csiro.au/res/cm/impact.htm
>
>* As from 1 March 1999 I have become a CSIRO Post-Retirement Fellow.
>This means I do not have administrative responsibilities, and am
>working part-time, primarily on writing for the Intergovernmental Panel
>on Climate Change. Please refer any administrative matters or contract
>negotiations for the CIG to Dr. Peter Whetton, the new Group Leader, at
><peter.whetton@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, tel. xxx xxxx xxxx.
>
>"Far better an approximate answer to the right question which is often
>vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question which can always be
>made precise." J.W. Tukey as cited by R. Lewin, Science 221,xxx xxxx xxxx.
>
>
Original Filename: 936652724.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "Stepan G. Shiyatov" <stepan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Proposal to IARC
Date: Mon, 6 Sep 1999 17:18:44 +0500
Reply-to: "Stepan G. Shiyatov" <stepan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Dear Keith,
Some days ago we have got "JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT OF
OPPORTUNITY" from International Arctic Research Center and Cooperative
Institute for Arctic Research University of Alaska Fairbanks. The
general theme is Global Change Research in the Arctic (full text with
description is attached bellow). As we have read Research Themes from
announcement they seem to be very congenial to our laboratory. What do
you think about this? Is there point in submitting proposal to IARC
and CIFAR at the University of Alaska Fairbanks? Research theme would
be 5,000 year summer air temperature reconstruction from tree rings
and impacts and consequences of global climate change on forest
ecosystems in the Polar Ural and Yamal Peninsula (Subarctic regions of
Russia).
We have no wide experience to submit proposal to any foreign
administration. We need in some advice. Could you give us a piece of
good advice how to do this well.
The questions are:
1. We are not sure whether this action and theme is contrary to our
future cooperative work?
2. If not, how big our chance to get award?
3. Could we submit a proposal from our Institute only without U.S.
partner? (Proposals from foreign institutions should preferably have a
U.S. partner. See description bellow). If U.S. partner should be, who
in your opinion would be?
Best regards.
Stepan.
From: ArcticInfo
<arcticInfo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: arcticinfo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: IARC Announcement of Opportunity
For more information on these research
opportunities contact:
Professor Syun Akasofu, Director, IARC, Phone: 907/xxx xxxx xxxx,
Fax: 907/xxx xxxx xxxx, or E-mail: sakasofu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx.
RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT OF OPPORTUNITY
International Arctic Research Center and Cooperative Institute for
Arctic Research University of Alaska Fairbanks
Global Change Research in the Arctic
INTRODUCTION
Proposals are invited on topics of global change and its
effects in the Arctic (detection; interactions and feedbacks;
paleoclimates, arctic haze, ozone and UV; contaminants; impacts and
consequences of change). The proposal deadline is 1 October 1999 and
awards will be made in January 2000.
DESCRIPTION
The International Arctic Research Center (IARC) and the Cooperative
Institute for Arctic
Research (CIFAR) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks announce the
availability of funding for global change research in the Arctic. The
IARC is a new international research center at the University of
Alaska Fairbanks, established jointly with Japan. The mission of the
IARC is to provide an environment that will nurture multidisciplinary
research by integrating and synthesizing past, present, and future
studies in global change.
CIFAR is the NOAA-UAF Cooperative Institute
for Arctic Research; it is combining the resources of its Arctic
Research Initiative (ARI) with those of IARC under this announcement.
The goal is to develop a focal point for a pan-Arctic synthesis of
global change in which researchers from many different institutions
throughout the United States and the rest of the world participate to
combine their research results. Further details on IARC can be found
on its web page at http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/ and on CIFAR at
http://www.cifar.uaf.edu/.
Proposals may be submitted from U.S. or
foreign institutions that address studies on any of the following
themes drawn from the IARC Science Plan and the CIFAR Arctic Research
Initiative. Proposals from foreign institutions should preferably have
a U.S. partner. The starting date for proposed work should be 1
January 2000, with a duration of up to 24 months. Funding for the
second year will be contingent on the availability of additional
funds, therefore each proposal should have a clear, achievable
objective for the first year's work.
RESEARCH THEMES
1. Detection of
contemporary climate change in the Arctic by ground observations,
remote sensing and climate "fingerprinting".
2. Arctic paleoclimatic
reconstructions from ice cores, tree rings, permafrost, lake and ocean
sediments.
3. Atmosphere-ice-land-ocean interactions and feedbacks in
the Arctic that affect change, including observations and modeling.
4. Arctic atmospheric chemistry, arctic haze, ozone and UV radiation and
their effects.
5. Impacts and consequences of global climate change,
including effects on biota and ecosystems in the Arctic.
6. Contaminant sources, transport pathways, and exposure to higher
trophic levels and humans in the Arctic.
It is planned to fund several
large projects and a number of medium ($100K) or smaller projects.
Proposals must include the full cost of logistics support required. A
total of about $ 4.5M is available in year 1 for this Announcement of
Opportunity.
Proposals can request support for the following:
*Research on any of the above six themes. Proposals that add value to
ongoing research projects, or that share costs with other funded
investigators, are encouraged.
* Conducting workshops at the IARC to
further define priorities or synthesize available information on any
of the research themes listed above, or any theme from the IARC
Science Plan.
* Visiting scientists, for short- or longer-term visits,
to the IARC in Fairbanks.
* Development of generally useful curricula
and courses in global change, or conducting global change outreach and
educational activities.
* U.S. participation in the work of the Arctic
Council and its AMAP, CAFF, or PAME working groups.
All proposers
should meet the following conditions:
* PIs must attend an annual
synthesis meeting of all IARC/CIFAR investigators in Fairbanks at
which research results will be presented and working groups will
synthesize results. Proposal budgets should include travel to
Fairbanks.
* All activities will be required to acknowledge the
financial support from IARC and CIFAR in reports, papers,
dissertations, etc.
* Progress reports are due from all funded
projects on 1 August 2000.
* Copies of all publications resulting from
funded projects are to be provided to IARC/CIFAR.
Proposals should not
exceed 15 pages in text and illustrations, not counting CVs, budget
page, and appendices. Further details on proposal preparation are
attached below as an appendix.
Review criteria for research proposals are:
* Does the proposal address the research themes listed above?
*Does it propose high-quality research?
* Does it advance the NOAA mission?
* Is the PI (or are the PIs) well qualified to do the
research?
* Can the research be done in a timely manner?
* Is it likely to lead to significant results?
* Is it likely to contribute to
a synthesis of research results on global change?
Proposals must be
received by 1 October 1999. All proposals will be reviewed by a
scientific peer review panel of prominent researchers that will advise
a program management team drawn from NOAA, IARC, and CIFAR. Funds will
be available in early 2000. Please submit proposals (originals and 10
copies) to the address below. Further information can also be obtained
from the same office.
Professor Syun Akasofu, Director
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
930 North Koyukuk Drive
P. O. Box 757340
Fairbanks, AK 99xxx xxxx xxxx
Tel 907/xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax 907/xxx xxxx xxxx
e-mail: sakasofu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Program Management Team:
Syun Akasofu, Director, IARC, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK
John Calder, Director, Arctic Research, NOAA-OAR, Silver Spring, MD
Gunter Weller, Director, CIFAR, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK
********************************************
APPENDIX
INSTRUCTIONS FOR PROPOSAL PREPARATION
FORMAT OF THE PROPOSAL
Proposals should be stapled in the upper left-hand corner, but
otherwise be unbound, and have 2.5-cm margins at the top, bottom, and
on each side. The type size must be clear and readily legible, in
a standard font size of xxx xxxx xxxxpoint. The original signed copy should
be clipped together (not stapled) and printed on one side of each sheet
only. The 10 additional copies of the proposal may be printed on both sides.
When submitting collaborative proposals involving more than one
institution, each institution should submit its own cover page with
appropriate signatures and its own budget. The title of the proposal,
the text, disclosures, vitae, etc., should be the same and a cover
letter should indicate that the proposal is a collaborative one
jointly submitted with another (or other) institution(s) which should
be named.
SECTIONS OF THE PROPOSAL
1. Cover page. The cover page
should include a title, the Principal Investigator's name(s) and
affiliation(s), complete address, phone, fax, e-mail information, and
budget summary broken out by year. It must be signed by an official
authorized to legally bind the submitting organization.
2. Half-page
abstract (on a separate page). This should list the nature of the
proposed work (e.g., hypotheses to be tested, the relationship of the
proposed studies to the research themes, the goals of any proposed
workshops, relationship to the Arctic Council, etc.) and a summary of
the key approach.
3. Project Description. This section should present
the problem or opportunity to be addressed by the project, and state
the questions, hypotheses, and project objectives, clearly relating
them to the goals of this competition. Proposals should: summarize the
approach that will be used to address the questions, hypotheses, and
objectives; describe how the PIs and co-PIs would contribute to the
overall study approach; describe the methods to be used; and present
expected results.
4. Data Plan. The proposal should include a plan on
how the data generated by the proposed research will be made available
to other scientists (e.g., web pages) and deposited in a recognized
data archive.
5. References cited.
6. Milestone chart for the project.
7. Statement of the project responsibilities of each Principal
Investigator and participant.
8. Budget. Pattern your budget after NSF
budget Form 1030. Budget categories include the following: salaries
and wages, fringe benefits, equipment, travel, materials and supplies
(expendable), publication costs, consultant services, computer
services, sub-awards, tuition, other expenditures, and indirect costs
(facilities and administration). The full cost of logistics should be
included in the budget. Travel to an annual PI meeting in Fairbanks
should be included. Travel expenses need to be broken down by airfare
and per diem. Salaries for Government PIs will not be supported.
9. Biographical Sketch. This is limited to two pages for each Principal
Investigator and should be focused on information directly relevant to
undertaking the proposed research.
10. A short list of possible peer
reviewers with whom you have no close working or personal relationship
(optional).
11. Federal employees. Proposals are welcome from those
Federal agencies whose legislated mission allows participation.
NONDISCRIMINATION The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
provides awards for research in the sciences. The awardee is wholly
responsible for the conduct of such research and preparation of the
results for publication. NOAA, therefore, does not assume
responsibility for such findings or their interpretation. IARC and
CIFAR welcome proposals on behalf of all qualified scientists and
engineers, and strongly encourage women, minorities, and persons with
disabilities to compete fully in any of the research and
research-related programs described in this document. In accordance
with Federal statutes and regulations, and NOAA policies, no person on
the grounds of race, color, age, sex, national origin, or disability
shall be excluded from participation in, denied the benefits of, or be
subjected to discrimination under any program or activity receiving
financial assistance from NOAA.
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e-mail: stepan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Fax: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx
Phone: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx
Original Filename: 936728245.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: "Stepan G. Shiyatov" <stepan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Proposal to IARC
Date: Tue Sep 7 14:17:xxx xxxx xxxx
Stepan
I have just returned from a week at a PAGES meeting in Switzerland. I presented the Yamal and Taimyr chronologies along with our recent analyses of the spatial patterns of variability in the northern network and the pressure and temperature interpretation of the patterns. All of this was well received.
As for you questions, it is very short notice to consider getting a well organised proposal together. My answers to your specific questions are
1. Such work would not necessarily be contrary to our current and future plans but there is undoubtedly a potential overlap and possible problem in distinquishing tasks and outputs. The next EC proposal must be clearly separate and I would be concerned if the potential referees asked what was the clear difference.
2. I have no experience ( and presumably neither has anyone else as this is a new initiative) but I think the chances would depend on the degree of synthesis involved in the work and possibly how extensive the overall scope of the work is and also maybe who the U.S. collaborator is. I think your chance would be better as part of a large project , somewhat as we envisage for the next EC application. This is my opinion only and it may , of course, be wrong.
3.I see nothing preventing an application from your laboratory alone . If you do put in an application I wolud hope it made clear our ongoing collaboration. If you went for a collaborator in the U.S. the obvious person is Gordon Jacoby. I do not know if he is already submitting but I would think so. Please let me know what you decide . I will be phoning Gordon anyway to ask him about future collaboration on the EC front. I will keep you informed on that.
very best wishes
Keith
At 05:18 PM 9/6/99 +0500, you wrote:
>Dear Keith,
>Some days ago we have got "JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT OF
>OPPORTUNITY" from International Arctic Research Center and Cooperative
>Institute for Arctic Research University of Alaska Fairbanks. The
>general theme is Global Change Research in the Arctic (full text with
>description is attached bellow). As we have read Research Themes from
>announcement they seem to be very congenial to our laboratory. What do
>you think about this? Is there point in submitting proposal to IARC
>and CIFAR at the University of Alaska Fairbanks? Research theme would
>be 5,000 year summer air temperature reconstruction from tree rings
>and impacts and consequences of global climate change on forest
>ecosystems in the Polar Ural and Yamal Peninsula (Subarctic regions of
>Russia).
>We have no wide experience to submit proposal to any foreign
>administration. We need in some advice. Could you give us a piece of
>good advice how to do this well.
>The questions are:
>1. We are not sure whether this action and theme is contrary to our
>future cooperative work?
>2. If not, how big our chance to get award?
>3. Could we submit a proposal from our Institute only without U.S.
>partner? (Proposals from foreign institutions should preferably have a
>U.S. partner. See description bellow). If U.S. partner should be, who
>in your opinion would be?
>
>Best regards.
>Stepan.
>
>From: ArcticInfo
><arcticInfo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>To: arcticinfo@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Subject: IARC Announcement of Opportunity
>For more information on these research
>opportunities contact:
>Professor Syun Akasofu, Director, IARC, Phone: 907/xxx xxxx xxxx,
>Fax: 907/xxx xxxx xxxx, or E-mail: sakasofu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx.
>
>RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
>JOINT ANNOUNCEMENT OF OPPORTUNITY
>International Arctic Research Center and Cooperative Institute for
>Arctic Research University of Alaska Fairbanks
>Global Change Research in the Arctic
>
>INTRODUCTION
>Proposals are invited on topics of global change and its
>effects in the Arctic (detection; interactions and feedbacks;
>paleoclimates, arctic haze, ozone and UV; contaminants; impacts and
>consequences of change). The proposal deadline is 1 October 1999 and
>awards will be made in January 2000.
>DESCRIPTION
>The International Arctic Research Center (IARC) and the Cooperative
>Institute for Arctic
>Research (CIFAR) at the University of Alaska Fairbanks announce the
>availability of funding for global change research in the Arctic. The
>IARC is a new international research center at the University of
>Alaska Fairbanks, established jointly with Japan. The mission of the
>IARC is to provide an environment that will nurture multidisciplinary
>research by integrating and synthesizing past, present, and future
>studies in global change.
>CIFAR is the NOAA-UAF Cooperative Institute
>for Arctic Research; it is combining the resources of its Arctic
>Research Initiative (ARI) with those of IARC under this announcement.
>The goal is to develop a focal point for a pan-Arctic synthesis of
>global change in which researchers from many different institutions
>throughout the United States and the rest of the world participate to
>combine their research results. Further details on IARC can be found
>on its web page at http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/ and on CIFAR at
>http://www.cifar.uaf.edu/.
>
>Proposals may be submitted from U.S. or
>foreign institutions that address studies on any of the following
>themes drawn from the IARC Science Plan and the CIFAR Arctic Research
>Initiative. Proposals from foreign institutions should preferably have
>a U.S. partner. The starting date for proposed work should be 1
>January 2000, with a duration of up to 24 months. Funding for the
>second year will be contingent on the availability of additional
>funds, therefore each proposal should have a clear, achievable
>objective for the first year's work.
>RESEARCH THEMES
>1. Detection of
>contemporary climate change in the Arctic by ground observations,
>remote sensing and climate "fingerprinting".
>2. Arctic paleoclimatic
>reconstructions from ice cores, tree rings, permafrost, lake and ocean
>sediments.
>3. Atmosphere-ice-land-ocean interactions and feedbacks in
>the Arctic that affect change, including observations and modeling.
>4. Arctic atmospheric chemistry, arctic haze, ozone and UV radiation and
>their effects.
>5. Impacts and consequences of global climate change,
>including effects on biota and ecosystems in the Arctic.
>6. Contaminant sources, transport pathways, and exposure to higher
>trophic levels and humans in the Arctic.
>
>It is planned to fund several
>large projects and a number of medium ($100K) or smaller projects.
>Proposals must include the full cost of logistics support required. A
>total of about $ 4.5M is available in year 1 for this Announcement of
>Opportunity.
>Proposals can request support for the following:
>*Research on any of the above six themes. Proposals that add value to
>ongoing research projects, or that share costs with other funded
>investigators, are encouraged.
>* Conducting workshops at the IARC to
>further define priorities or synthesize available information on any
>of the research themes listed above, or any theme from the IARC
>Science Plan.
>* Visiting scientists, for short- or longer-term visits,
>to the IARC in Fairbanks.
>* Development of generally useful curricula
>and courses in global change, or conducting global change outreach and
>educational activities.
>* U.S. participation in the work of the Arctic
>Council and its AMAP, CAFF, or PAME working groups.
>
>All proposers
>should meet the following conditions:
>* PIs must attend an annual
>synthesis meeting of all IARC/CIFAR investigators in Fairbanks at
>which research results will be presented and working groups will
>synthesize results. Proposal budgets should include travel to
>Fairbanks.
>* All activities will be required to acknowledge the
>financial support from IARC and CIFAR in reports, papers,
>dissertations, etc.
>* Progress reports are due from all funded
>projects on 1 August 2000.
>* Copies of all publications resulting from
>funded projects are to be provided to IARC/CIFAR.
>
>Proposals should not
>exceed 15 pages in text and illustrations, not counting CVs, budget
>page, and appendices. Further details on proposal preparation are
>attached below as an appendix.
>
>Review criteria for research proposals are:
>* Does the proposal address the research themes listed above?
>*Does it propose high-quality research?
>* Does it advance the NOAA mission?
>* Is the PI (or are the PIs) well qualified to do the
>research?
>* Can the research be done in a timely manner?
>* Is it likely to lead to significant results?
>* Is it likely to contribute to
>a synthesis of research results on global change?
>
>Proposals must be
>received by 1 October 1999. All proposals will be reviewed by a
>scientific peer review panel of prominent researchers that will advise
>a program management team drawn from NOAA, IARC, and CIFAR. Funds will
>be available in early 2000. Please submit proposals (originals and 10
>copies) to the address below. Further information can also be obtained
>from the same office.
>Professor Syun Akasofu, Director
>International Arctic Research Center
>University of Alaska Fairbanks
>930 North Koyukuk Drive
>P. O. Box 757340
>Fairbanks, AK 99xxx xxxx xxxx
>Tel 907/xxx xxxx xxxx
>Fax 907/xxx xxxx xxxx
>e-mail: sakasofu@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>
>Program Management Team:
>Syun Akasofu, Director, IARC, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK
>John Calder, Director, Arctic Research, NOAA-OAR, Silver Spring, MD
>Gunter Weller, Director, CIFAR, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK
>********************************************
>
> APPENDIX
>INSTRUCTIONS FOR PROPOSAL PREPARATION
>FORMAT OF THE PROPOSAL
>Proposals should be stapled in the upper left-hand corner, but
>otherwise be unbound, and have 2.5-cm margins at the top, bottom, and
>on each side. The type size must be clear and readily legible, in
>a standard font size of xxx xxxx xxxxpoint. The original signed copy should
>be clipped together (not stapled) and printed on one side of each sheet
>only. The 10 additional copies of the proposal may be printed on both sides.
>
>When submitting collaborative proposals involving more than one
>institution, each institution should submit its own cover page with
>appropriate signatures and its own budget. The title of the proposal,
>the text, disclosures, vitae, etc., should be the same and a cover
>letter should indicate that the proposal is a collaborative one
>jointly submitted with another (or other) institution(s) which should
>be named.
>
>SECTIONS OF THE PROPOSAL
>1. Cover page. The cover page
>should include a title, the Principal Investigator's name(s) and
>affiliation(s), complete address, phone, fax, e-mail information, and
>budget summary broken out by year. It must be signed by an official
>authorized to legally bind the submitting organization.
>2. Half-page
>abstract (on a separate page). This should list the nature of the
>proposed work (e.g., hypotheses to be tested, the relationship of the
>proposed studies to the research themes, the goals of any proposed
>workshops, relationship to the Arctic Council, etc.) and a summary of
>the key approach.
>3. Project Description. This section should present
>the problem or opportunity to be addressed by the project, and state
>the questions, hypotheses, and project objectives, clearly relating
>them to the goals of this competition. Proposals should: summarize the
>approach that will be used to address the questions, hypotheses, and
>objectives; describe how the PIs and co-PIs would contribute to the
>overall study approach; describe the methods to be used; and present
>expected results.
>4. Data Plan. The proposal should include a plan on
>how the data generated by the proposed research will be made available
>to other scientists (e.g., web pages) and deposited in a recognized
>data archive.
>5. References cited.
>6. Milestone chart for the project.
>7. Statement of the project responsibilities of each Principal
>Investigator and participant.
>8. Budget. Pattern your budget after NSF
>budget Form 1030. Budget categories include the following: salaries
>and wages, fringe benefits, equipment, travel, materials and supplies
>(expendable), publication costs, consultant services, computer
>services, sub-awards, tuition, other expenditures, and indirect costs
>(facilities and administration). The full cost of logistics should be
>included in the budget. Travel to an annual PI meeting in Fairbanks
>should be included. Travel expenses need to be broken down by airfare
>and per diem. Salaries for Government PIs will not be supported.
>9. Biographical Sketch. This is limited to two pages for each Principal
>Investigator and should be focused on information directly relevant to
>undertaking the proposed research.
>10. A short list of possible peer
>reviewers with whom you have no close working or personal relationship
>(optional).
>11. Federal employees. Proposals are welcome from those
>Federal agencies whose legislated mission allows participation.
>NONDISCRIMINATION The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
>provides awards for research in the sciences. The awardee is wholly
>responsible for the conduct of such research and preparation of the
>results for publication. NOAA, therefore, does not assume
>responsibility for such findings or their interpretation. IARC and
>CIFAR welcome proposals on behalf of all qualified scientists and
>engineers, and strongly encourage women, minorities, and persons with
>disabilities to compete fully in any of the research and
>research-related programs described in this document. In accordance
>with Federal statutes and regulations, and NOAA policies, no person on
>the grounds of race, color, age, sex, national origin, or disability
>shall be excluded from participation in, denied the benefits of, or be
>subjected to discrimination under any program or activity receiving
>financial assistance from NOAA.
>---------------------------------------------------------------------------
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>http://www.arcus.org At anytime you may: Subscribe to ArcticInfo by
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>600 University Avenue, Suite 1 Fairbanks, AK 99xxx xxxx xxxx/xxx xxxx xxxx
>907/xxx xxxx xxxxfax
>
>Lab. of Dendrochronology
>
>Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology
>8 Marta St.,
>202 Ekaterinburg, 620144, Russia
>e-mail: stepan@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
>Fax: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx
>Phone: +7 (34xxx xxxx xxxx
>
>
>
>
Original Filename: 939165392.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "Sujata Gupta" <sujatag@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: UK National Climate Change Centre
Date: Tue, 05 Oct 1999 19:16:32 +0530
Cc: <t.d.davies@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Dear Mike,
I was on travel and hence the delay in responding to your email. TERI will be interested in being one of the International Supporting Institutes for the Centre. I will fax a letter to you tomorrow and send the original by post.
I have not heard on the DETR proposal as yet.
Best wishes
Sujata
Sujata Gupta, Ph.D.
Fellow and Dean
Policy Analysis Division
TERI
>>> Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx> 09/28/99 02:34AM >>>
Dear Sujata,
This may well not be news to you, but the UK government has recently
requested bids from UK universities to house a new 'National Climate Change
Centre'. The Centre would receive funds of 2 million pounds sterling per
year for (at least initially) five years. The role of the Centre would be
to compliment existing work on climate modelling and data analysis (IPCC
WGI areas) by focussing on 'solutions' (mitigation and adaptation options
and their implementation), specifically for the UK government and business
community, but within a global context. The emphasis appears to be on IPCC
WG3 area with a strong commitment to integrated research, but with some
overlap with WG2. The Centre would carry out independent research, but
would also be expected to make use of, and to integrate, exisiting UK
research and expertise. It would be expected to contribute to and to
foster interdisciplinary research that underpins sustainable solutions to
the climate change problem.
UEA is making a bid for this Centre. Applications are due by mid-October.
UEA is well-known for CRU, but it also has strengths in data distribution
to the climate impacts community, in impacts research, and in environmental
economics (CSERGE). While these areas are fundamental foundation stones
for the science that the Centre is expected to develop, the Centre would
need to expand significantly beyond these areas. We have a Consortium in
place as follows
- 6-7 Senior Partners - (UEA, UMIST, U.Southamton, Dept. Economics at
U.Cambridge, Cranfield, Leeds Institute of Transport Studies, IH and ITE)
- Affiliated UK Organisations - (we have 6-8 of these)
- Supporting Business Links
- Supporting International Organisations
If UEA were to succeed in its bid for the Centre, then it would seek to
develop strong links with other institutions abroad in order to strengthen
its own intellectual base and, through such links, to contribute to the
development and implementation of the science. We would see TERI as one of
these Supporting International Organisations.
To this end, we would like a short letter of support from yourself - on
behalf of the Policy Analysis Division, or a wider TERI grouping if you
feel able to represent them - indicating that you fully support the UEA bid
and would exclusively lend your backing to this Consortium and be keen to
interact closely with us at a research level were the Centre to come to
UEA. This interaction may take the form of exchanging scientists, testing
out new methodologies, developing/advising on workshops, providing
entry-points into international policy initiatives, etc., etc.
Nothing too formal or lengthy at this stage, but we would like to provide
the Council's with a flavour of the breadth of our existing and future
colloboration in the field and our ability to mobilise support in our favour.
Many thanks. Please send to Prof. Trevor Davies, Dean, Environmental
Sciences, UEA, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, before the 12th October.
Feel free to ask me for more details, etc. Our written text is beginning to
take shape and we will circulate a draft of this to you before the bid goes
in.
Regards,
Mike
p.s. I have not yet heard anything about the DETR India Programme. Have you?
*****************************************************************************
Dr Mike Hulme
Reader in Climatology tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
Climatic Research Unit fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
School of Environmental Science email: m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
University of East Anglia web site: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/
Norwich NR4 7TJ
*****************************************************************************
Annual mean temperature in Central England for 1999
is currently about +1.4 deg C above the 1xxx xxxx xxxxaverage
***************************************************
The global-mean surface air temperature anomaly for 1998
was +0.57 deg C above the 1xxx xxxx xxxxaverage, the warmest year yet recorded
*****************************************************************************
Original Filename: 965750123.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "S. Fred Singer" <singer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: "Raymond S. Bradley" <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re:Your msg about climate/energy policy
Date: Tue, 08 Aug 2000 11:55:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, pjm8x@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
<x-flowed>Dear Ray
You sent me this op-ed (?) (Letter to editor?) about the need to convert
the US from a carbon-based economy to a hydrogen-based economy. I can't
guess why you wanted me to know your views, but it does help me to better
understand what motivates your scientific work and judgment. It also
throws some doubt about your impartiality in promoting the "hockey stick'
temperature curve that a number of us have been critical of.
In any case, I doubt if espousal of this energy policy will help BP and
ARCO discover a source of hydrogen somewhere.
You quote the "progressive" Business Council approvingly: "We accept the
views of most scientists that enough is known about the science and
environmental impacts of climate change for us to take actions to address
its consequences." And from BP chairman : "the time to consider the policy
dimensions of policy change is not when the link between greenhouse gases
and climate change is conclusively proven, but when the possibility cannot
be discounted and is taken seriously by the society of which we are part."
I note that BP and ARCO are still out there exploring for oil; they don't
seem to be quite ready yet to put real money where their mouth is.
You call for the US to take leadership in stabilizing the
climate. Perhaps the government will turn to you to learn how to do
this. A far less ambitious goal would be to stabilize the atmospheric
concentration of CO2. According to the IPCC this would require an emission
reduction of 60 to 80 percent (with respect to 19xxx xxxx xxxxWORLDWIDE.
Have you ever considered the consequences of such a policy -- assuming it
could really be adopted?
Best wishes ,
Fred
**********************************
At 10:34 AM 8/1/xxx xxxx xxxx, you wrote:
> WASHINGTON, DC -- In August 1997, a few months before the Kyoto
> Conference on Climate Change, the Global Climate Coalition (GCC)
> helped launch a massive advertising campaign designed to prevent the
> United States from endorsing any meaningful agreement to reduce global
> carbon emissions. This group included in its ranks some of the world's most
> powerful corporations and trade associations involved with fossil
> fuels. The
> campaign effectively undermined public support of U.S. efforts to lead the
> international effort to stabilize climate.
> While the public image of the GCC was that of a unified group, there was
> dissent. John Browne, Chairman of British Petroleum, on May 19, 1997,
> announced that "the time to consider the policy dimensions of policy change
> is not when the link between greenhouse gases and climate change is
> conclusively proven, but when the possibility cannot be discounted and is
> taken seriously by the society of which we are part. We in BP have
> reached that point."
> BP withdrew from the Global Climate Coalition. Dupont had already left.
> The following year, Royal Dutch Shell left.
> In 1999, Ford withdrew from the GCC. A company spokesman noted,
> "Over the course of time, membership in the Global Climate Coalition has
> become something of an impediment for Ford Motor Company to
> achieving our environmental objectives."
> In rapid succession in the early months of 2000, Daimler Chrysler, Texaco,
> and General Motors announced that they too were leaving the Coalition.
> This accelerating exodus reflected the conflict emerging within GCC ranks
> between firms that were clinging to the past and those that were planning
> for the future.
> Some of the exiting companies, such as BP Amoco, Shell, and Dupont,
> joined a progressive new group, the Business Environmental Leadership
> Council, which says, "We accept the views of most scientists that enough is
> known about the science and environmental impacts of climate change for
> us to take actions to address its consequences."
> Membership requires companies to have programs for reducing carbon
> emissions. BP Amoco, for example, plans to bring its carbon emissions to
> 10 percent below its 1990 level by 2010, exceeding the Kyoto goal of
> roughly 5 percent for industrial countries.
> Dupont has already cut its 1990 greenhouse gas emissions by 45 percent
> and plans to reduce them by 65 percent by 2010.
> There is a growing acceptance among the key energy players that the
> world is in the early stages of the transition from a carbon-based to a
> hydrogen-based energy economy. In February 1999, ARCO CEO
> Michael Bowlin said, "We've embarked on the beginning of the Last Days
> of the Age of Oil." He then discussed the need to convert our
> carbon-based energy economy into a hydrogen-based energy economy.
> With the organization that so effectively undermined U.S. leadership in
> Kyoto no longer a dominant player in the global climate debate, the
> stage is
> set for the United States to resume leadership of the global climate
> stabilization effort.
>Raymond S. Bradley
>Professor and Head of Department
>Department of Geosciences
>University of Massachusetts
>Amherst, MA 01xxx xxxx xxxx
>
>Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
>Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>Climate System Research Center: xxx xxxx xxxx
>Climate System Research Center Web Page:
><http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/climate.html>
>Paleoclimatology Book Web Site (1999):
>http://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/paleo/html
S. Fred Singer, President
Science & Environmental Policy Project
9812 Doulton Court
Fairfax, VA 22032
http://www.sepp.org
Tel: xxx xxxx xxxx
e-fax xxx xxxx xxxx(your fax will be sent as email to my
computer)
**********
"The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses
to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, scepticism
is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin."
Thomas H. Huxley
**********
"That theory is worthless. It isn't even wrong!" - W. Pauli
**********
</x-flowed>
Original Filename: 968774000.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: GIORGI FILIPPO <giorgi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Chapter 10 LAs -- Congbin Fu <fcb@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, GIORGI FILIPPO <giorgi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Bruce Hewitson <hewitson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Jens Christensen <jhc@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Linda Mearns <lindam@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Richard Jones <rgjones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Hans von Storch <storch@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Peter Whetton <phw@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: more on "what to do"
Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2000 11:53:20 +0200 (MET DST)
Dear All
I think I heard replies to my last proposal from most of you. I have also
had a phone conversation with Linda. So let me try to summarize the
situation
1) From the replies I got, it sounds like at least the basic idea of my
proposal is viable. In particular I read an at least semi-consensus, and
certainly some strong individual positions, that the SRES material , since
it is unpublished (and remember unreviewed until now), should not be
presented as our sole or even primary source of conclusions. Now, I share
that position and in fact quite strongly. Presenting such material breaks
the proclaimed IPCC rules. Now the rules have been softened for this case,
but remember that there are people around who are paid to find faults in
the IPCC process and the last thing I want to do is being accused of
having broken the rules. I think the TSU people are too optimistic and
casual in the way they change the rules during the process and expect
people to accept that this "just" happens. Remember what happened to Ben
Santer after the SAR. Besides, I myself think that material for a document
as important as the TAR cannot be drawn from last-minute barely quality
checked and un-peered reviewed material (people have barely looked at the
MPI run that was completed last friday !!). It is up the the IPCC to
better plan these things and avoid the mess. Be it as it may, unless
somebody is strongly against this position, I will assume that we can
proceed from this basis.
2) Having said the above, it is also clear the we can present the IPCC data
in some format. Chapter 9 is doing it (remember also in their case the SRES
stuff is only a minor component of the chapter) so we can and I think we
should because it is relevant and important material,
but with the proper caveats clearly up front, i.e. that whatever
we present is a preliminary analysis that has not undergone a publication
process. It would be certainly strange and confusing to have the SRES
discussed in Chapter 9 but not in our chapter in some form. Besides we went
through a significant effort to get it and process it. I myself think
that the SRES information is important to provide. It is
just unfortunate, but not surprising, that it came around too late.
3) So the question is at this point how do we present the SRES. I suggested
not to incorporate it within the text of 10.3, since 10.3 is our assessment of
published research which has undergone peer and government review. I stand
strongly by that suggestion. Obviously 10.3 might need a bit of rewriting
to make it flow better with possibly different conclusions but not more than
that. I then suggested to make the Box an SRES Box including the +/- format
figures (I thought we needed 4, i.e. two for each scenario, but Linda pointed
out we really need only 2, one for precip and one for temperature each
including the two scenariost). Now
this offers several advantages: we can say right up front that this is from
a preliminary analysis; we can separate it cleanly from the rest of the
"official " text; it gives direct info in a format that people seem to like.
Two very legitimate comments were made on this. Peter said, if we give
this more palatable format (the +/- figures)
only for SRES data would it not implicitly give it
too much attention? Linda said: why not present similar plots for the
IS92 data? The obvious action which would address both of these concerns is
to present similar plots for the IS92 data. This is certainly an option.
The only problem I see is that I think the clear separation of published and
unpublished results would be lost if we put it in the BOX. The alternative
is to do those figures and put them in 10.3, leaving the SRES for the BOX.
This could be a good option, although it might require significant effort.
All and all, I am still in favor of an SRES-only box with a clear statement
up front that gets us off the hook in case of problems (you can see it
as a sort of disclaimer I guess).
So let's come to the next point: we need to decide on this and soon. The
best way appears to be a conference call. Linda suggested thursday, which
is fine with me. It now looks like Richard cannot organize this. So Linda
I am afraid you are left with the organization of it. The call
would have to be during European-South African afternoon - US morning
and I am afraid I am not sure what time in Australia. problems is: Jens can
you make it? I think Jens is the person in the group most strongly opposed
to presenting SRES data, so it important he is in the conference call. It
is also critical that Peter participates, given he has been the main
player in all this. Now here is my proposal:
Conference call on thursday 3 p.m. Trieste-Hamburg time, which means 4 p.m. Cape
town time, 2 p.m. Bracknell time, 9 a.m. Boulder time, 8 a.m. Fairbanks time
and ??? Australia time. Linda is this feasible for you to organize?
Is this ok for all? Conbin, are you available at all?
items of discussion:
Question 1): Do we do an SRES BOX with +/- figures?
Question 2): What are the technical details (n-1 vs. n-2 model agreement,
inclusion of outliers, threshold for large vs. small vs. no
change both for precip change and temperature amplification
factor).
Question 3): Do we do similar figures for IS92 data which would either replace
the current figures on IS92 in the text (I think this would be
perfectly acceptable since it is simply a way to present
in a different way published results).
Question 4): How do we incorporate the SRES results within the current
executive summary
I hope that by thursday I will have all data to do all relevant figures.
I need to get CCC control and MPI-DMI data from Bruce and dig out the old
IS92 data. If not by thursday then hopefully by friday. Once I have the
data I can easily directly calculate all the thresholds necessary for
doing the relevant figures. I will then circulate all the material to you.
Needless to say that any data based on SRES that is circulated among us
should NOT go any further (except for the chapter of course) until we decide
what to do with it (a paper or something like that).
In the mean time, I will never tire to keep asking you to please work on
the section revisions and let's get those out of the way.
Cheers, Filippo
################################################################
# Filippo Giorgi, Senior Scientist and Head, #
# Physics of Weather and Climate Section #
# The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics #
# P.O. BOX 586, (Strada Costiera 11 for courier mailxxx xxxx xxxx#
# 34100 Trieste, ITALY #
# Phone: xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx #
# Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx49 (or xxx xxxx xxxxxxx xxxx xxxx #
# email: giorgi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx #
################################################################
Original Filename: 983207072.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,"Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Wally
Date: Mon, 26 Feb 2001 12:04:32 +0000
Cc: <mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,"Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, tom crowley <tom@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,<tom@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx,t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
<x-flowed>
Dear All,
I was away over the weekend at Bowdoin College in Maine, giving a
talk about the
last 1000 years. There were three others as well on other paleo aspects,
Richard Alley,
Gary Clow and Wally Broecker ! The latter briefly mentioned to me that
he had had
something in last Friday's Science, which was getting at the Mann et al.
series. He
didn't have a copy so we've not seen it here yet. I tried to get a copy
of Science on
the bookstand at Logan airport last night - I guess it's not sold that way !
Wally was going on about this 1500 yr cycle of Bond's, which seemed
pretty flimsy.
I was showing all the various series in a general talk - and I used some
of the overheads
from the upcoming Science paper. This is due to appear in the issue for
the last week
of April. It is all accepted now. I will forward if you'll all abide by
the Science rules. Both
Wally and Alley seem convinced that the climate of Greenland changed by
10 C in
the space of 2-3 years at times in the past (Y Dryas etc). I had long
talks with both
and they don't seem to have got their heads around spatial scales (local
changes
and hemispheric). Also they don't seem to realise where we are coming
from. He
has a downer on trees (believes all the multiproxy series depend
exclusively on
trees) but he thinks Ed Cook is a great scientist. The latter is true,
but he might
just think that because he's at Lamont. I did tell him that Keith's paper
on the age
banding is out in JGR. I should send him a reprint and maybe ask that great
scientist to go and explain it to him ! Ed's in NZ at the moment. Also
Wally believes
much more in glacier advances/retreats. I'll get Keith to send him
Sarah's paper
where the long Tornetrask reconstruction is shown to agree with Storglaciaren
advance/retreat dates from moraine evidence. Also Sarah's been working on
similar
glaciers in the Swiss Alps with long tree-ring reconstructions. One
interesting
thing was he didn't seem to realise that a lot of the tree-ring
reconstructions use
density. Seemed to think they were all ring widths and there had to be
moisture
changes we were not accounting for.
It is easy to respond to a Perspectives piece. Some of you did it
with respect to
one of mine. I'm not sure it will achieve much - it won't come out before
the paper
in the last week of April. I need to wait to se what he says. Our paper
(me, Tim and
Keith) clearly says that the MWP couldn't have been warmer (for the NH
average)
than the late 20th century.
Another possible reason for not doing anything is that the IPCC
report will be out
soon. The summary is written in pretty clear language.
The above is my first thoughts, not having read the piece and just
got off the
flight back.
Best to ignore Woijcek. All he seems to want to do is deflect us into
responding.
Cheers
Phil
At 11:47 25/02/xxx xxxx xxxx, mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx wrote:
>Dear all,
>WHat mechanism does "Science" have for repsonding to Perspective pieces? Most
>of the answer to Wally is contained within his own piece - he comments on the
>ambiguity of the record, which, in various ways, we have all done. What he
>doesn't offer, however, is anything other than an anecdotal alternative. As
>always, he seeks to damn ( in this case with faint praise) the records or
>work
>that don't serve his purpose , and to elevate any scrap of evidence that does
>serve it. I think it will be important for us to stick closely to what we
>have
>written in published papers. CHeers, MAlcolm
>
>Quoting "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>:
>
> > Dear Phil, Ray,
> >
> > What do you guys think. If we're all on board, than an appropriately
> > toned,
> > "high road" response here might be appropriate. We don't want to engage
> > Wally in a personal battle, but simply should correct the record where
> > Wally has muddied it. Again, Phil et al do have a Science article in
> > press
> > that serves this purpose to some extent, so I'm especially interested in
> > what
> > Phil thinks (Phil?)...
> >
> > mike
> >
> > At 02:52 PM 2/24/xxx xxxx xxxx, mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx wrote:
> > >Dear Mike et al., I think we should definitely let Wojick stew in his
> > own
> > >juice - as Mike pointed out to me the other day he, and his like, have
> > a
> > >specific agenda, and anything we write will be pressed into the service
> > of
> > that
> > >agenda. I'm not so sure about Wally. I share Tom's disinclination to
> > get
> > into a
> > >street fight with Wally - generally I take the view that life's too
> > short and
> > >uncertain for such activities. On the other hand, would we let such a
> > shoddy
> > >piece of work(and editing) go by if it were from another author? There
> > are so
> > >many holes in Wally's argument, and such a selective choice of evidence
> > that it
> > >should beggar belief. One of the more obvious holes is that he writes
> > of the
> > >Great Basin droughts of the 10th through 14th centuries as proof of
> > warmer
> > >conditions then, but doesn't explain why we don't have such conditions
> > now.
> > >Interestingly, Larry Benson, Dave Meko and others have good evidence
> > that
> > these
> > >same multidecadal periods were marked by a great excess of
> > precipitation
> > just a
> > >few hundred miles north in northern Nevada and California and southern
> > Oregon.
> > >He just hasn't grasped that the methods that are appropriate for
> > tracking the
> > >consequences of major changes in boundary conditions don't work in the
> > late
> > >Holocene. I've been trying to figure out the issue of "Was there a
> > Medieval
> > >Warm Period, and if so where and when" for a decade or so, and still
> > have the
> > >impression that the records for the 9th through 14th centuries are
> > extremely
> > >mixed. But then, I didn't come to the investigation with a certain
> > knowledge of
> > >the absolute truth, and have had to 'misfortune' to work with people
> > who let
> > >careful analysis get in the way - Henry Diaz, Ray and Mike, and others.
> >
> > >Anyway, the point of this rant is that I think we should give careful
> > >consideration to making a measured response to Wally. Cheers, Malcolm
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >Quoting "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>:
> > >
> > >> Hi Tom,
> > >>
> > >> Thanks for your quick reply. I agree with you entirely. I think its
> > very
> > >> unfortunate he's chosen to disinform the community rather than engage
> > in
> > >> a
> > >> constructive dialogue (we tried the latter w/ him in a series of
> > emails
> > >> last
> > >> year, but clearly to no avail).
> > >>
> > >> On the other hand, think that a war of words w/ Broecker would be
> > >> exploited
> > >> by the skeptics, and perhaps we should just try to let this thing
> > die...
> > >>
> > >> I'm not sure. I'd appreciate knowing what others think?
> > >>
> > >> mike
> > >>
> > >> At 10:25 AM 2/24/xxx xxxx xxxx, tom crowley wrote:
> > >> >Mike,
> > >> >
> > >> >I was not aware of the Broecker piece - I am dismayed but not
> > >> surprised. I
> > >> >do not know what to do - I personally cannot stand the combative
> > >> personal
> > >> >approach Broecker relishes but it does seem as if some rebuttal is
> > >> called
> > >> >for. Maybe you Ray Phil I and Malcolm could pen a response - we are
> > >> >heading to Germany in a week, for a month, so I am not sure how much
> > I
> > >> can
> > >> >keep up on this but it seems as if some response is called for.
> > >> >
> > >> >What think ye?
> > >> >
> > >> >Tom
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >>Dear Mike,
> > >> >>
> > >> >>Thanks for passing this along.
> > >> >>
> > >> >>Wojick of course completely misrepresents Broecker, and puts his
> > >> >>conventional intellectually dishonest spin on this.
> > >> >>
> > >> >>That having been said, it is a bit disappointing that Wally
> > continues
> > >> to
> > >> >>cling to some of his flawed beliefs which aren't supported from
> > either
> > >> our
> > >> >>best current understanding of the observations or of the results of
> > >> careful
> > >> >>modeling experiments. My own perception is that the climate
> > community,
> > >> >>modelers as well as observationalists, simply don't take seriously
> > >> anymore
> > >> >>the idea that the history of climate change over the past 1000
> > years
> > >> is
> > >> >>part of an internal oscillation. The sediment core evidence oft
> > cited
> > >> by
> > >> >>Broecker (e.g. Bond et al) for this is tremendously weak, and I, as
> > >> well as
> > >> >>the vast majority of my colleagues, simply don't buy it for even a
> > >> second.
> > >> >>But people don't like to challenge Broecker publically. He can and
> > >> will
> > >> >>play hardball.
> > >> >>
> > >> >>There is an odd irony. Broecker refused to accept the modeling
> > >> evidence
> > >> >>that the 100 kyr ice age Pleistocene variations were part of an
> > >> internal
> > >> >>oscillation paced by insolation variations, favoring instead the
> > >> >>discredited notion that they were a direct response to (too weak)
> > >> >>eccentricity forcing, until the evidence became insurmountable
> > (from
> > >> my
> > >> >>adviser, Barry Saltzman, may he rest in piece, and people like Dick
> > >> >>Peltier). Ironically, Broecker then took credit for the very
> > >> proposition he
> > >> >>had fought w/ tooth and nail.
> > >> >>
> > >> >>Broecker is even more wrong, and unfortunately equally stubborn, in
> > >> this case.
> > >> >>And, again, the reason: because his pet theory, that climate
> > >> variability is
> > >> >>a simple millennial oscillation, is finally being challenged w/
> > hard
> > >> data
> > >> >>and hard facts.
> > >> >>
> > >> >>Broecker misrepresents the nature of that data that we and others
> > have
> > >> >>used, and misunderstands the source of the muted hemispheric trends
> > >> (there
> > >> >>*is* a hemispheric "medieval warm period" and "little ice age",
> > just
> > >> not of
> > >> >>the magnitude or the distinctiveness that Broecker imagines).
> > >> Individual
> > >> >>regions in our reconstructions, and Phils, and others, vary by
> > several
> > >> >>degrees C, ie, the proxies we use have no problem whatsoever in
> > >> resolving
> > >> >>high-amplitude temperature variations in the past. The problem is
> > that
> > >> when
> > >> >>we look at the different regions we find that periods of cold and
> > >> warm
> > >> >>often occur at very different times in different regions, and so in
> > a
> > >> >>hemispheric or global average, a lot of purely regional variability
> > >> cancels
> > >> >>out. The resulting trends are somewhat smaller. I remained
> > befuddled
> > >> as to
> > >> >>why Wally doesn't understand this point. Its been explained to him
> > >> time and
> > >> >>time again. Maybe he's just not listening, or doesn't want to
> > >> listen...
> > >> >>
> > >> >>In fact, Tom Crowley has clearly shown that the observed millennial
> > >> >>temperature reconstruction is precisely consistent w/ our
> > >> understanding of
> > >> >>*forced* climate change over the past 1000 years (solar changes,
> > >> volcancic
> > >> >>output, and recent greenhouse gas concentrations). There is, simply
> > >> put, no
> > >> >>room for a global millennial internal oscillation. Regionally, such
> > >> types
> > >> >>of climate phenomena, associated for example with changes in the
> > North
> > >> >>Atlantic ocean circulation, are supported by the observations. This
> > >> >>explains why, for example, European temperature variations are
> > >> somewhat
> > >> >>larger than those in other regions not effected so strongly by such
> > >> climate
> > >> >>processes.
> > >> >>
> > >> >>Other recent perspectives, by Ray Bradley and myself provide a far
> > >> more
> > >> >>balanced and nuanced (and less dogmatic or defensive) viewpoint.
> > I'm
> > >> not
> > >> >>sure a written response to Broecker is worthwhile (this is,
> > afterall,
> > >> a
> > >> >>"perspective" and everyone understands that a scientist may have a
> > >> flawed
> > >> >>perspective). If Wally wants this to be his legacy, so be it...
> > >> >>
> > >> >>Phil and others have a review article coming out in the near future
> > >> which
> > >> >>also provides a much more balanced perspective on the climate
> > changes
> > >> of
> > >> >>the past millennium, and will set the record straight once again
> > (good
> > >> >>timing Phil!). Science's embargo policy prevents me from saying
> > much
> > >> more
> > >> >>at this time, but if Phil or anyone else wishes to comment further,
> > >> I'd
> > >> >>encourage it.
> > >> >>
> > >> >>Well, I've still got some snow to shovel here in Charlottesville!
> > >> Happy
> > >> >>weekend to all,
> > >> >>
> > >> >>mike
> > >> >>
> > >> >>p.s. For those with electronic subscriptions, Broecker's latest
> > piece
> > >> can
> > >> >>be found here:
> > >> >>
> > >> >> PALEOCLIMATE:
> > >> >> Was the Medieval Warm Period Global?
> > >> >> Wallace S. Broecker
> > >> >> Science Feb xxx xxxx xxxx: 1xxx xxxx xxxx. [Summary] [Full Text]
> > >> >>
> > >> >>http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/291/5508/1497
> > >> >>
> > >> >>While my previous perspective piece is here:
> > >> >> CLIMATE CHANGE:
> > >> >> Lessons for a New Millennium
> > >> >> Michael E. Mann
> > >> >> Science 2000 July 14; 289: xxx xxxx xxxx. (in Perspectives) [Summary]
> > >> [Full
> > >> >>Text]
> > >> >>URL:
> > >>
> > >>http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/289/5477/253?maxtoshow=&HIT
> S=10&h
> > >>
> > >>its=10&RESULTFORMAT=&author1=Mann&searchid=QID_NOT_SET&stored_search=&
> FIRSTI
> > >> >>NDEX=&fdate=10/1/1995&tdate=2/28/2001
> > >> >>
> > >> >>and Bradley's is here:
> > >> >>
> > >> >> PALEOCLIMATE: Enhanced: 1000 Years of Climate Change
> > >> >> Ray Bradley
> > >> >> Science 2000 May 26; 288: 1xxx xxxx xxxx. (in Perspectives) [Summary]
> > >> [Full
> > >> >>Text]
> > >> >>
> > >> >>URL:
> > >>
> > >>http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/288/5470/1353?maxtoshow=&HI
> TS=10&
> > >>
> > >>hits=10&RESULTFORMAT=&author1=Bradley&searchid=QID_NOT_SET&stored_sear
> ch=&FI
> > >> >>RSTINDEX=&fdate=10/1/1995&tdate=2/28/2001
> > >> >>
> > >> >>>Dear Michael--The third point below has comments on the
> > controversy
> > >> >>>betweenyou and Broecker--I'd be interested in your response (did
> > >> Wally not
> > >> >>>just understand what your data show?).
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Mike
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Three Wojick Pieces on Climate Change.
> > >> >>>I've been busy busy.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>David
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>FIRST, the latest issue of Insight Magazine includes a
> > >> point-counterpoint
> > >> >>>between measly old me and the great Robert Watson. Boy has he got
> > >> >>>credentials! Too bad he's wrong.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>><http://www.insightmag.com/archive/200103143.shtml>
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Symposium: Do scientists have compelling evidence of global
> > warming?
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Yes: Rising sea levels worldwide and retreating Arctic glaciers
> > are
> > >> ominous
> > >> >>>signs.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>By Robert T. Watson -- chairman of the UN Intergovernmental Panel
> > on
> > >> >>>Climate Change, chief scientist at the World Bank and former chief
> > >> science
> > >> >>>advisor to the Clinton White House.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>No: Despite the overheated rhetoric, there is no new evidence of
> > >> warming
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>By David E. Wojick -- covers climate policy for Electricity Daily
> > and
> > >> is a
> > >> >>>science adviser to the Greening Earth Society
> > >> >>><http://www.greeningearthsociety.org>, as well as Undereditor of
> > the
> > >> >>>Washington Pest <http://www.WashingtonPest.com>
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>SECOND, the February 15 Eco-logic on-line has published "The Black
> > >> Hole of
> > >> >>>Global Climate Government" by David Wojick, my detailed attack on
> > the
> > >> >>>Framework Convention on Climate Change. It includes a lot of the
> > >> actual
> > >> >>>treaty language.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>><http://www.eco.freedom.org/el/20010202/wojick.shtml>
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>THIRD, here is a draft Electricity Daily article of mine. Seems
> > I'm
> > >> not the
> > >> >>>only one who thinks the IPCC is nuts.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Climate Guru Kicks The Hockey Stick
> > >> >>>by David Wojick (dwojick@xxxxxxxxx.xxx)
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Global warming is natural and the recent warming is probably no
> > >> exception.
> > >> >>>This is the controversial argument made by prominent climatologist
> > >> Wallace
> > >> >>>S. Broecker in today's issue of Science.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Broecker's bombshell bears the seemingly innocent title "Was the
> > >> Medieval
> > >> >>>Warm Period Global?" It may seem esoteric, but whether the
> > apparent
> > >> warmth
> > >> >>>reported in Europe about 1000 years ago was global or simply local
> > is
> > >> >>>becoming a central issue in climate science. What makes it
> > >> contentious is
> > >> >>>the recent claims by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on
> > >> Climate
> > >> >>>Change that the earth is warmer now than it has been for
> > millennia,
> > >> and
> > >> >>>that therefore human carbon dioxide emissions are to blame.
> > Broecker,
> > >> a
> > >> >>>leading figure at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia
> > >> University,
> > >> >>>questions both IPCC claims.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>The focus of the debate is a 1000-year temperature reconstruction
> > >> known in
> > >> >>>climate circles as the "hockey stick". Produced in 1999 by M. E.
> > >> Mann, R.
> > >> >>>S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, the long handle of the hockey stick
> > shows
> > >> global
> > >> >>>temperatures for the first 8 centuries as basically unchanging,
> > >> followed by
> > >> >>>the sharply up-tilting blade of the last 150 years or so. The Mann
> > et
> > >> al
> > >> >>>hockey stick is the central feature of the recently released IPCC
> > >> working
> > >> >>>group one Summary for Policy makers, which claims to embody the
> > best
> > >> of
> > >> >>>climate science.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Broecker does not like the hockey stick, nor the conclusions the
> > IPCC
> > >> draws
> > >> >>>from it. He says " A recent, widely cited reconstruction (Mann's)
> > >> leaves
> > >> >>>the impression that the 20th century warming was unique during the
> > >> last
> > >> >>>millennium. It shows no hint of the Medieval Warm Period (from
> > around
> > >> 800
> > >> >>>to 1200 A.D.) during which the Vikings colonized Greenland,
> > >> suggesting that
> > >> >>>this warm event was regional rather than global. It also remains
> > >> unclear
> > >> >>>why just at the dawn of the Industrial Revolution and before the
> > >> emission
> > >> >>>of substantial amounts of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, Earth's
> > >> >>>temperature began to rise steeply. Was it a coincidence? I do not
> > >> think so.
> > >> >>>Rather, I suspect that the post-1860 natural warming was the most
> > >> recent in
> > >> >>>a series of similar warmings spaced at roughly 1500-year intervals
> > >> >>>throughout the present inter-glacial, the Holocene."
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Broecker presents the evidence for a global Medieval Warm Period,
> > as
> > >> well
> > >> >>>as for a Little Ice Age from around 1300 to 1860, when the present
> > >> >>>temperature rise begins. He also argues that the "proxy" evidence
> > >> used by
> > >> >>>Mann et al, such as tree ring data, is ill suited to the time
> > period
> > >> and
> > >> >>>temperature variation -- less than one degree C -- in question.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>As he puts it, "In my estimation, at least for time scales greater
> > >> than a
> > >> >>>century or two, only two proxies can yield temperatures that are
> > >> accurate
> > >> >>>to 0.5 C: the reconstruction of temperatures from the elevation of
> > >> mountain
> > >> >>>snowlines and borehole thermometry. Tree ring records are useful
> > for
> > >> >>>measuring temperature fluctuations over short time periods but
> > cannot
> > >> pick
> > >> >>>up long-term trends because there is no way to establish the
> > >> long-term
> > >> >>>evolution in ring thickness were temperatures to have remained
> > >> constant."
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Broecker acknowledges that the proxy evidence is necessarily
> > somewhat
> > >> >>>"murky", but his conclusion is that "climatic conditions have
> > >> oscillated
> > >> >>>steadily over the past 100,000 years, with an average period close
> > to
> > >> 1500
> > >> >>>years... The swing from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice
> > >> Age was
> > >> >>>the penultimate of these oscillations." The implication being that
> > >> some, if
> > >> >>>not all, of the present warming is the natural swing out of the
> > >> Little Ice
> > >> >>>Age, and that Mann et al, as well as the IPCC, are mistaken.
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>--
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>Dr. David E. Wojick
> > >> >>>President
> > >> >>>Climatechangedebate.org
> > >> >>>Subscribe to the free debate listserv at
> > >> http://www.climatechangedebate.org
> > >> >>>Non subscribers can follow the debate at
> > >> >>>http://www.eScribe.com/science/ClimateChangeDebate/
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>
> > >> >>>
> > >>
> > >>_______________________________________________________________________
> > >> >> Professor Michael E. Mann
> > >> >> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
> > >> >> University of Virginia
> > >> >> Charlottesville, VA 22903
> > >>
> > >>_______________________________________________________________________
> > >> >>e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (8xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (804)
> > >> xxx xxxx xxxx
> > >> >> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.html
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >Thomas J. Crowley
> > >> >Dept. of Oceanography
> > >> >Texas A&M University
> > >> >College Station, TX 77xxx xxxx xxxx
> > >> >xxx xxxx xxxx
> > >> >xxx xxxx xxxx(fax)
> > >> >xxx xxxx xxxx(alternate fax)
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >> >
> > >>
> > _______________________________________________________________________
> > >> Professor Michael E. Mann
> > >> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
> > >> University of Virginia
> > >> Charlottesville, VA 22903
> > >>
> > _______________________________________________________________________
> > >> e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (8xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (804)
> > xxx xxxx xxxx
> > >> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.html
> >
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > _______________________________________________________________________
> > Professor Michael E. Mann
> > Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
> > University of Virginia
> > Charlottesville, VA 22903
> > _______________________________________________________________________
> > e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (8xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (8xxx xxxx xxxx
> > http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.html
> >
> >
> >
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
</x-flowed>
Original Filename: 986486371.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: s.torok
Subject: Fwd: RE: kyoto survey - press inquiry from the THES
Date: Thu Apr 5 11:59:xxx xxxx xxxx
Simon,
Could you - or Vanessa - buy a THES today from the paper shop and check this out. I would
quite like to draft a short letter to THES as suggested by Steve. But I need to see how
the issue was presented in this week's issue.
Thanks,
Mike
From: "Farrar, Steve" <steve.farrar@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: 'Mike Hulme' <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: RE: kyoto survey - press inquiry from the THES
Date: Thu, 5 Apr 2001 09:45:33 +0100
X-Mailer: Internet Mail Service (5.5.2653.19)
Dear Mike,
thanks for that. I feel terrible but despite the pain it cost to reply to the survey,
the deadline has now passed. We had such a high response rate that we decided to run the
piece in this week's paper while the issue of the US withdrawl from the protocol was
still high in everyone's mind. So I cannot include your responses. However, you make a
number of very significant points, not least your reply to question 2 on the strength of
the evidence and the political framework outlined in your final sentences. I wonder -
and I know this is pushing it - whether you might consider rearranging some of these
sentences to form a brief letter to the editor for the following week's paper? I would
like this issue to stay alive in the THES and allow the paper to play a small role in
persuading as many scientists as possible to take part in a scientific/political debate
that may contribute to influencing those people who *can* change things. Not an original
objective, I know, but the THES does have a fairly unique position within the academic
community and hence a responsibility. Anyhow, sorry for the bad news
best wishes
Steve
***********************
Steve Farrar
Science Reporter
Times Higher Education Supplement
xxx xxxx xxxxEast Smithfield
London E1W 1BX
United Kingdom
[1]www.thes.co.uk
Tel: (xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: (xxx xxxx xxxx
-----Original Message-----
From: Mike Hulme [[2]mailto:m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx]
Sent: 04 April 2001 19:57
To: Farrar, Steve
Subject: Re: kyoto survey - press inquiry from the THES
Steve,
I hate these sort of questionnaires since Y or N answers are barely
adequate. However, I've given it a go with some other comments .............
(by the way, Prof. Trevor Davies is Head of my School here at UEA - I am
only Director of a Centre within the School, albeit a highly relevant one!).
You can quote me if appropriate, but let me know before hand.
Mike
At 12:30 02/04/01 +0100, you wrote:
>Dear Mike,
>
>hope you're well. I am conducting a survey of heads of UK university
>departments of environmental science for the Times Higher Education
>Supplement. I am keen to explore views concerning the United States and
>the Kyoto agreement. I wonder if you could answer the following Yes/No
>questions when you get a moment. Note, I will not identify you unless you
>specifically state that you do not mind being quoted.
>
>I do hope you can help
>
>all the bets
>
>Steve
>
>1: Do you believe human activities are at least in part responsible for
>driving global climate change?
YES
>2: Do you feel the evidence for this is sufficiently strong to start
>reducing emissions?
NO - to reduce emissions requires more evidence than that humans are
altering climate. We need to know something about the potential risks
associated with future climate change, whether these risks can be minimised
through adaptive action and then have some socially negotiated basis for
deciding about the necessity and extent of desirable emissions
reductions. On none of these issues do we have a good basis to work
from. The precautionary principle, if chosen, would imply start reducing
emissions now - but I am not convinced a blind application of the
precautionary principle in this case is the most appropriate instrument.
>3: Do you think the measures proposed at Kyoto were too weak, correct, or
>too strong?
The 5.2% emissions reduction by 2010 by Annex I countries were not driven
by science but by real-politik. By definition they were the best
achievable. The real issue however is not about target setting - it's
about the dynamics of change worldwide in energy technologies, investment
strategies, consumer and community behaviour and aspirations, etc. It is
*these* things that in the end will deliver a safer climate - not the
Protocol per se. More attention should be directed at the diverse and
myriad set of actions needed to decarbonise our societies.
>4: Are you disappointed that George Bush has abandoned the Kyoto agreement?
YES - but it is too early to say that Kyoto is dead. The USA does not have
the power of veto - and Bush will have to propose some climate management
strategy of his own. We wait and see.
>5: Should the rest of the world press on with the agreement without the
>United States?
Probably YES. This can be achieved and should provide valuable lessons in
global climate management which we can learn from in the long-term.
>6: Do you feel the US should be allowed to count carbon sequestration
>measures such as planting new forests towards any carbon emissions
>reduction target?
YES. The UK are doing it in their national climate change programme so why
not the USA?
>7: Are you optimistic that there will be a new emissions control agreement
>within the next 12 months?
A 'new' one? We haven't got one yet. I would think maybe not in the next
12 months, but the critical issues about global climate management will be
clearer.
>8: Should the Kyoto preliminary targets be watered down to gain the
>Americans' support?
NO. If the USA don't like them, let them not ratify or propose a strategy
of their own.
>If you would like to add any comments to this survey as to the
>implications of the US's rejection of Kyoto for the planet, what UK can do
>about it or what role scientists can play in this debacle, please do so.
In a literal sense the implications for global climate are trivial - what
will affect the course of global climate (and only then climate beyond
about 2030 - up until then climate is pretty much pre-determined by inertia
in the system) in the long-run are the effects of cumulative decisions
taken by many, many people/governments/businesses over the next 10-20
years. Let's not kid ourselves that the USA President is more powerful
than he would like to think. The planetary system is much bigger than one
4-year term of a US president.
The UK is playing a key role both within the negotiating machinery of the
FCCC, in pioneering new scientific analyses, and in working out new forms
of adapting to climate change. This momentum in the UK is not going to be
halted by Bush.
Scientists need to be there to point out the long-term nature of the
problem - it is not a classic political issue where a one-term government
can solve or worsen the problem. Scientists need to point out that for
long-term planetary management we need new analytical tools, new criteria
for investment decisions, a new appreciation of the concept of global
citizenship. What climate change forces us to do is to think about the
influence we are having on the quality of life for the next generation but
one - not our own generation or even our children's
generation. Conventional politics is not a system geared up for this
challenge.
>***********************
>Steve Farrar
>Science Reporter
>Times Higher Education Supplement
>xxx xxxx xxxxEast Smithfield
>London E1W 1BX
>United Kingdom
>[3]www.thes.co.uk
>Tel: (xxx xxxx xxxx
>Fax: (xxx xxxx xxxx
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
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Original Filename: 990718382.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: christy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: FYI: Fwd: Re: IPCC
Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 11:33:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tkarl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tom crowley <tom@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jto@u.arizona.edu, rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, "Folland, Chris" <ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, jouzel@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, steig@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
<x-flowed>
John:
For future reference, I think its also important to clarify for you what
the Dahl-Jensen, Clow et al borehole results actually show (see Dahl-Jensen
et al, "Past Temperatures Directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet", Science,
282, October 1998).
In fact, the results show that the amplitude of variability over the past
1000+ years differs by a factor of 2 between the GRIP and Dye 3 borehole
estimates (the latter only 865 km to the south). This is an example of
extreme regional-scale variability, which should give pause to those who
want to draw large-scale inferences.
However, even more importantly, they show in the case of Dye 3, the mid
20th century warm period in the record actually exceeds the Medieval warm
peak! (see Fig 4, lower panel, blue curve). So here we have two temperature
histories less than 1000 km apart in Greenland, which give different
stories regarding the level of Medieval warmth, with at least one of the
histories conforming precisely to the hemispheric trends presented in IPCC
chapter 2 (note that in the chapter, we actually discuss the evidence of
conflicting temperature trends in Greenland, though not specifically
referring to Dahl-Jensen et al).
So do I understand correctly that you are referring to the results of
Dahl-Jensen et al as conflicting with what we say in the chapter? At the
face of it, this argument has no merit whatsoever. I think we should all
use a better explanation from you, since you seem to be arguing publically
that the Dahl-Jensen et al record undermines what we've said in the chapter.
Thanks in advance,
mike
p.s. I've cc'd in Eric Steig, a collaborator of Clow's and a Greenland &
Antarctic Ice Core expert, to make sure my facts above have been presented
accurately. Perhaps Eric woudl be kind enough to forward my email to Gary
Clow, and Gary can let us know directly if he disagrees with any of my
remarks above.
At 03:30 PM 5/23/xxx xxxx xxxx, Michael E. Mann wrote:
>John,
>
>I appreciate your reply.
>
>However, I don't agree at all w/ your assessment. It was determined early
>on that the ice core borehole results would be discussed in the context of
>the millennial-scale variability section, as they arguably don't have the
>resolution to address the timescales relevant to the past 1000 years. So
>this was in Jean's domain, not mine, and if the cross-references between
>the sections aren't clear enough in that regard, that is indeed our fault.
>
>However, there is considerable discussion of the fact that the
>Arctic/North Atlantic regions are inappropriate for inferences into
>hemispheric-scale temperature patterns, and this remains fundamentally
>from any reasonable treatment of the underlying climate dynamics that
>influence that region.
>
>The various hemispheric temperature reconstructions discussed in our
>chapter (the emphasis was on the commonality between them), including Mann
>et al, Jones et al, Briffa et al, Crowley and Lowery, and others, make
>considerable use of just about all of the available reliable low-res and
>high-res paleo data available, and come to a clear concensus regarding the
>relative warmth of the Medieval period at the hemispheric/global scale.
>Crowley's modeling results come to the same conclusion, and it entirely
>independent of
>any empirical paleoclimate reconstructions.
>
>You misrepresent the Mann et al reconstruction--it is not based on "tree
>rings", but uses all high-resolution proxy information commonly available.
>We have shown, in fact, that our reconstruction is robust to the
>inclusion/disclusion of tree ring information. The Crowley and Lowery
>reconstruction, which is discussed in our chapter, makes use of almost no
>tree ring data, and employs lower-resolution proxy indicators, including
>the very records (Keigwin, Lamb's central england temperature record,
>GISP2 o18) that are often used to argue for a warmer MWP, and yet comes to
>the same conclusion. And Tom shows that when averaged across the
>hemisphere, a warmer-than-present-day MWP just doesn't hold up.
>
>Our treatment of this subject in the chapter was far more careful, far
>more inclusive and detailed, and far more nuanced than you give us credit
>for. Your comments below remain disturbingly selective and myopic, and we
>have dealt w/ similar comments many times over...
>
>If ABC is looking to do a hatchet job on IPCC so be it (this doesn't
>surprise me--Stossel has an abysmal record in his treatment of
>environmental issues, from what I had heard), but I'll be very disturbed
>if you turn out to have played into this in a way that is unfair to your
>co-authors on chapter 2, and your colleagues in general. This wouldn't
>have surprised me coming from certain individuals, but I honestly expected
>more from you...
>
>Mike
>
>>Date: Wed, 23 May 2001 13:50:xxx xxxx xxxx
>>From: John Christy <christy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>>X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.04 (Macintosh; I; PPC)
>>To: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
>>Subject: Re: IPCC
>>
>>Hi Mike:
>>
>>Here's what happened. ABC News 20/20 with Stossel wanted me to be part
>>of a segment that will air at the end of June on the climate change
>>issue. Specifically the piece will be dealing with the alarmist
>>rhetoric that tends to be found in the media. I am more than happy to
>>talk about that because I've been very disappointed with what has gone
>>on even with respect to some of the IPCC elders and their pronouncements
>>for forthcoming disasters.
>>
>>In one of the pre-interviews they asked about the "Hockey Stick". I
>>told them of my doubts about the intercentury precision of the record,
>>especially the early part, and that other records suggested the period
>>1000 years ago was warmer. I remember saying that "you must give the
>>author credit for including the large error bars for that time series in
>>the figure." I also specifically said that the most precise record of
>>century scale precision, Greenland Borehole temps, was very important to
>>note but that the figure was not in the IPCC. I then looked quickly at
>>the IPCC reference list and saw the citation of Dahl-Jensen and assumed
>>that it was at least commented on in the 1000 year time series material
>>and told ABC as much.
>>
>>ABC called back a few days later and said they couldn't find a reference
>>to the Greenland stuff in the IPCC discussion of the past 1000 years.
>>So I read the final version, and ABC was right. I said this was an
>>omission that should not have happened - and that I take part of the
>>blame because I had mentioned it at each of our Lead Author meetings.
>>
>>Last Thursday night, I was one of the guys flown to NY City for the
>>taping of the show. There was only one question on this particular
>>issue (it was even after Stossel had left the room) and I gave much the
>>same answer as I indicated above (as best as I can remember)- that the
>>"Hockey Stick" (I don't think I used the term "Hockey Stick", and I'm
>>almost positive I did not mention your name at any point) is one
>>realization of temperatures but that other data are not included and
>>that I had thought the "other" data were clearly mentioned in the IPCC,
>>but weren't. I mentioned the large error bars (as a credit to you) and
>>that I was partly to blame for this omission. If they use my remark,
>>they could slice and dice it to make it as provocative as possible.
>>
>>Four of us were taped for almost 2 hours, and from this they will select
>>about 8 minutes, so I doubt my remarks will make the show. When Stossel
>>came back in after all was said and done, he said to me that I might be
>>a good scientist but I didn't have the emotion and passion necessary to
>>excite the audience. In one way, that is a compliment I suppose. I
>>think Pat M. will have a good chunk of air time (I don't remember
>>whether he added any comments on the 1000-year time series, but he may
>>have).
>>
>>Whatever is shown, just keep it in context. There is no way a clear
>>scientific point with all the caveats and uncertainties can come across
>>in such venues. However, I do agree with Stossel's premise (though I
>>don't know what the piece will actually look like so I may be
>>disappointed) that the dose of climate change disasters that have been
>>dumped on the average citizen is designed to be overly alarmist and
>>could lead us to make some bad policy decisions. (I've got a good story
>>about the writers of the TIME cover piece a couple of months ago that
>>proves they were not out to discuss the issue but to ignore science and
>>influence government.)
>>
>>It is not bad science to look at arguably the most precise measure of a
>>point temperature (actually two boreholes) when that point shows a 600+
>>year period of greater warmth than today. On that time scale, the
>>equivalent spatial scale is much larger than any of the regional
>>oscillations we now identify. But, there are several other (admittedly
>>less robust) measures that suggest greater warmth 1000 years ago that
>>are outside the N. Atlantic area. I just don't think tree rings, if
>>averaged over a century, can tell us which century was warmest. We've
>>never had two complete, independent centuries of global instrumental
>>data (separated by more than one century) to even test this idea. (By
>>the way, I came to my own conclusions long before Broekers piece
>>appeared.) This is an area of further work that I promoted to the NRC
>>about 2 months ago (more funding for Paleo work to assess intercentury
>>precision of all proxy records.)
>>
>>Regarding the IPCC. The IPCC TAR is good, but it is not perfect nor
>>sacred and is open to criticism as any document should be. In some
>>cases it is already outdated. Some of the story lines used to generate
>>high temperature changes are simply ridiculous. The IPCC is us. We are
>>under no gag rule to keep our thoughts to ourselves. I thought our
>>chapter turned out pretty good overall, and I attribute that to the
>>open, working relationship we all had (some other chapter groups did not
>>experience this) and to the tireless efforts of our convening lead
>>authors.
>>
>>Good to hear from you.
>>
>>John C.
>>
>>
>>--
>>************************************************************
>>John R. Christy
>>Director, Earth System Science Center voice: xxx xxxx xxxx
>>Professor, Atmospheric Science fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
>>Alabama State Climatologist
>>University of Alabama in Huntsville
>>http://www.atmos.uah.edu/atmos/christy.html
>>
>>Mail: University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville AL 35899
>>Express: NSSTC/ESSC 320 Sparkman Dr., Huntsville AL 35805
>
>_______________________________________________________________________
> Professor Michael E. Mann
> Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
> University of Virginia
> Charlottesville, VA 22903
>_______________________________________________________________________
>e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (8xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (8xxx xxxx xxxx
> http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
>
_______________________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (8xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (8xxx xxxx xxxx
http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
</x-flowed>
Original Filename: 990718506.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Fwd: Recent Paper from the Competitive Enterprise Institute
Date: Thu, 24 May 2001 11:35:xxx xxxx xxxx(MDT)
Reply-to: <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Cc: <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <tkarl@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, tom crowley <tom@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <jto@u.arizona.edu>, <rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Folland, Chris" <ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Mike:
You are right: this is a disinformation campaign.
Some remarks
1) On the Christy et al grl paper, I sent the following to John following
the IPCC Shanghai mtg.:
Date: Mon, 22 Jan 2001 15:39:xxx xxxx xxxx(MST)
From: Kevin Trenberth <trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: John Christy <christy@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: your grl paper
John:
Just back from IPCC. One surprise was the strong Saudi delegation
distributed your recent grl paper and wanted it inserted into the SPM! In
spite of the fact that you are a lead author on Chapter 2 , the paper is
referenced, etc. In fact Simon Brown was there.
Chris Folland made a comment about his hypothesis for this: related to
changes/growth in ships. My hypothesis focusses on the buoy data.
See our recent paper submitted to jgr:
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jgr2001b/jgr2.html also
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/papers/jgr2001a/jgr_interann.html
This shows that during and following El Nino there is an anomalous flux of
heat out of ocean into atmosphere in the east Pacific of order 50 W m-2 over
many months: so ocean T warms relative to air. During La Lina flux goes
other way. i.e. air warms relative to ocean.
So your results must be affected by 1xxx xxxx xxxxevent at end of series and that
may explain trend differential.
Hope this helps
Regards
Kevin
i.e. the result is not as advertized.
=====================
2) wrt Lindzen's paper
Here is the text from my recent Senate testimony
The determination of the climatic response to the changes in heating and
cooling is complicated by feedbacks. Some of these can amplify the original
warming (positive feedback) while others serve to reduce it (negative
feedback). If, for instance, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere
were suddenly doubled, but with other things remaining the same, the outgoing
long-wave radiation would be reduced and instead trapped in the atmosphere.
To restore the radiative balance, the atmosphere must warm up and, in the
absence of other changes, the warming at the surface and throughout the
troposphere would be about 1.2dg C. In reality, many other factors will
change, and various feedbacks come into play, so that the best IPCC estimate
of the average global warming for doubled carbon dioxide is 2.5dg C. In
other words, the net effect of the feedbacks is positive and roughly doubles
the response otherwise expected. The main positive feedback comes from
increases in water vapor with warming.
In 2001, the IPCC gave special attention to this topic. The many issues with
water vapor and clouds were addressed at some length in Chapter 7 (of which I
was a lead author, along with Professor Richard Lindzen (M.I.T.), and
others). Recent possibilities that might nullify global warming (Lindzen
2001) were considered but not accepted because they run counter to the
prevailing evidence, and the IPCC (Stocker et al., 2001) concluded that ``the
balance of evidence favours a positive clear sky water vapour feedback of the
magnitude comparable to that found in the simulations."
===
Here is a more complete rebuttal, written March 23 to MacCracken.
Subject: Re: Recent Lindzen paper
Kevin Trenberth
1) The paper is based on very simple conceptual ideas that do not mesh with
reality. Fig. 2 is simply not correct. For a more correct view of the
overturning see:
Trenberth, K. E., D. P. Stepaniak and J. M. Caron, 2000: The global monsoon
as seen through the divergent atmospheric circulation. {J. Climate},
13, 3xxx xxxx xxxx.
This paper also shows that the flow in the tropics is dominated by transients
(and thus mixing) of all kinds. The mean overturning is only about a third
of the daily mean variance for a month and much less if the intra diurnal
variations and interannual variations are included.
2) The "observations" analysis makes absolutely no sense to me at all. There
is a totally inadequate description of what is done and no way to decipher
what a dot in Fig 5 or Fig 6 is. Given 20 months, and daily values (how
was that done?) why are there only about 330 points? Why isn't Fig 6 part
of Fig. 5?
In any event the results are totally at odds with other evidence. Here I
refer to the Goes Precipitation Index which uses 3 hourly data on OLR, and
thus on high cloud, as an index of rainfall, and it is clear from many
studies that OLR generally decreases (convection and high cloud increase)
with SST, the reverse of the relationship in Fig. 5.
Moreover the whole conceptual basis for anything here is surely flawed. As
stated, on short time scales SST is not changing. But clouds are NOT caused
by local SST, rather they arise from either transients, like the MJO, or for
the ITCZ and SPCZ (which are major operators in this region), they come from
moisture convergence (P>>E) and so it is the patterns of SST (gradients) as
well as where the warmest water is that determines where the convergence and
clouds occur. Now in the warm pool, the convergence is focussed more on the
edges, as that is where the pressure gradients are greater, and so the
convergence is not where SST is necessarily highest.
In any case, moisture is not equal to cloudy air. Many analyses show that
moisture is much more extensive, see for example
Trenberth, K. E., and C. J. Guillemot, 1998: Evaluation of the atmospheric
moisture and hydrological cycle in the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. {Climate
Dyn.}, {14}, xxx xxxx xxxx.
Even with such results, other factors need to be considered.
One process might be
High SST => convergence => rainfall and cloud
OR
Less cloud => more solar radiation => higher SST
Those give opposite relations and both operate. The latter is more important
in the Indian Ocean where subsidence (from the Pacific) dominates.
However, it also operates over the oceans in the region in question in
northern summer, because that is the monsoon season, and the main convection
is over land, meaning subsidence over the ocean.
None of this is sorted out in any way in this paper.
In fact it is so bad in this regard I do not know how it got published.
In Fig 5 etc, no correlations are given, nor are their significance levels.
My rough estimate is that the correlation is about 0.2 to 0.3 and that is
significant if the 330 or so points are independent. But why should I have
to guess at that.
Again I would question the editorial and review process.
3) Finally, I refer you to chapter 7 of IPCC which is a more balanced
assessment. Lindzen was a coauthor of that with me and others. Lindzen
wrote 7.2.1 and the same figure 1 in the BAMS article was included as 7.1 in
chapter 7 along with similar ones from models, showing that these things are
fully simulated in good models, although better with higher resolution.
Anyway, his arguments were fully considered in chapter 7 and you can read it
to see the result. The whole of 7.2.1, including 7.2.1.1. 7.2.1.2 and
7.2.1.3 was put together originally by Lindzen, Pierrehumbert and Le Treut,
but basically the final version was rewritten by me to provide better
balance. Pierrehumbert is an agnostic of sorts: disbelieves everything
including models but seems to have faith in simple theories. Le Treut was
sound on the modeling. I did not change the substance of what they prepared,
I did reshape it and polish and it ended up in a form they accepted.
Note at the end it clearly states:
"the balance of evidence favours a positive clear sky water vapour feedback of
the magnitude comparable to that found in the simulations."
The 4 subsections together are quite long and throughly air the issue, much
moreso than any previous IPCC report. For those of you who do not have it:
7.2.1 "Physics of the water vapour and cloud feedbacks" (draft written by
Lindzen) is 1.3 pages, 7.2.1.1 (I think Pierrehumbert) "Water vapour
feedback", is 1 page, 7.2.1.2 "Representation of watre vapour in models" is
1.5 pages (Le Treut) and 7.2.1.3 "Summary on water vapour feedbacks" is half
a page or so.
---------------
Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: trenbert@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Climate Analysis Section, NCAR, ML www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/
P. O. Box 3000, [1850 Table Mesa Drive] (3xxx xxxx xxxx
Boulder, CO 80307 [80305] (3xxx xxxx xxxx(fax)
*******************************
On Thu, 24 May 2001, Michael E. Mann wrote:
> FYI. I received this from a colleague. This gives you some idea of who is
> behind this latest disinformation push.
>
> A note to all regarding the Broecker piece, which has been heavily referred
> to in this and other similar recent pieces (though it is an opinion piece,
> and not peer-reviewed).
> A response by Bradley, Briffa, Crowley, Hughes, Jones, and Mann appears in
> tomorrows issue of "Science". This response simply points out that old
> fallacies that are simply reiterated in Broecker's piece...
>
> mike
>
>
>
>
>
> > COMPETITIVE ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
> >
> >
> > Advancing the principles of free enterprise and
> > limited government
> >
> >
> > 5/16/01
> >
> > Latest Global Warming Report Already Obsolete
> >
> > By Paul J. Georgia
> >
> >
> >
> > The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
> >(IPCC) is
> > conducting a campaign of fear to convince us that energy
> >suppression is
> > our only salvation. The "Summary for Policymakers" of the
> >group's latest
> > report ? the report itself has not been officially released ?
> >paints a horrific
> > picture of a climate system gone mad.
> >
> > The new report, known as the "Third Assessment Report" (TAR),
> >is
> > expected to be the focal point for policymakers for the next
> >five years as
> > they decide what to do about global warming, just as the 1995
> >Second
> > Assessment Report has guided policymakers for the last five
> >years.
> > Indeed, the bureaucrats driving the global warming process
> >are using the
> > IPCC to justify their anti-energy policies. Klaus Toepfer,
> >executive
> > director of the United Nations Environment Programme, said,
> >"The
> > scientific consensus presented in this comprehensive report
> >about
> > human induced climate change should sound alarm bells in
> >every
> > national capital and in every local community."[1]
> >
> > In the midst of this campaign, however, the science continues
> >to move
> > apace, leaving many of the IPCC's underlying assumptions and
> > subsequent conclusions in shambles. A sampling of scientific
> >studies
> > published after the completion of the final drafts of the TAR
> >is presented
> > here to give the reader a taste of the constant flux of
> >scientific inquiry and
> > our rapidly changing understanding of the climate system.
> >Indeed, if
> > recent studies are correct there would be little
> >justification for Kyoto-style
> > policies that would ultimately impede humanity's ability to
> >provide itself
> > with the wealth- and health-enhancing benefits of modern
> >civilization.
> >
> > Water Vapor Feedback. The biggest uncertainty in climate
> >science
> > remains "feedback" effects on the climate. The conventional
> >explanation
> > by proponents of global warming theory always assumes that
> > human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of
> >greenhouse
> > gases, primarily carbon dioxide, could lead to catastrophic
> >warming of
> > the planet. Man-made greenhouse gas emissions, however, are
> >only an
> > indirect cause of the forecasted warming. A doubling of
> >carbon dioxide
> > concentrations alone would lead to slight warming of about
> >one degree
> > Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) over the next 100 years.
> >This small
> > amount of warming, according to standard global warming
> >theory, speeds
> > up evaporation, thereby increasing the amount of water vapor
> >(a major
> > greenhouse gas) in the atmosphere. This "positive water
> >vapor feedback"
> > effect is where most of the predicted warming comes from.
> >This
> > assumption has never been tested.
> >
> > A recent study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological
> >Society
> > suggests that the reverse is true.[2] The authors find a
> >negative water
> > vapor feedback effect that is powerful enough to offset all
> >other positive
> > feedbacks. Using detailed daily observations of cloud cover
> >from
> > satellites in the tropics and comparing them to sea surface
> >temperatures,
> > the researchers found that there is an "iris effect" in which
> >higher
> > temperatures reduce the warming effect of clouds.
> >
> > According to a NASA statement about the study, "Clouds play a
> >critical
> > and complicated role in regulating the temperature of the
> >Earth. Thick,
> > bright, watery clouds like cumulus shield the atmosphere from
> >incoming
> > solar radiation by reflecting much of it back into space.
> >Thin, icy cirrus
> > clouds are poor sunshields but very efficient insulators that
> >trap energy
> > rising from the Earth's warmed surface. A decrease in cirrus
> >cloud area
> > would have a cooling effect by allowing more heat energy, or
> >infrared
> > radiation, to leave the planet."[3]
> >
> > The researchers found that a one degree Celsius rise in ocean
> >surface
> > temperature decreased the ratio of cirrus cloud area to
> >cumulus cloud
> > area by 17 to 27 percent, allowing more heat to escape.
> >
> > In an interview, lead author Dr. Richard S. Lindzen said the
> >climate
> > models used in the IPCC have the cloud physics wrong. "We
> >found that
> > there were terrible errors about clouds in all the models,
> >and that that will
> > make it impossible to predict the climate sensitivity because
> >the
> > sensitivity of the models depends primarily on water vapor
> >and clouds.
> > Moreover, if clouds are wrong, there's no way you can get
> >water vapor
> > right. They're both intimately tied to each other." Lindzen
> >argues that
> > due to this new finding he doesn't expect "much more than a
> >degree
> > warming and probably a lot less by 2100."[4]
> >
> > The study is the best empirical confirmation to date of the
> >negative
> > feedback hypothesis proposed by Lindzen early on in the
> >global warming
> > debate. It builds on earlier empirical work by Drs. Roy
> >Spencer of NASA
> > and William Braswell of Nichols Research Corporation. Their
> >1997 study
> > also cast doubt on the assumption of a positive water vapor
> >feedback
> > effect.[5] They found that the tropical troposphere, the
> >layer of air
> > between 25,000 and 50,000 feet, is much dryer than climate
> >modelers
> > previously thought. Further empirical work will no doubt
> >confirm whether
> > this phenomenon is common throughout the tropics, which act
> >as the
> > Earth's exhaust vents for escaping heat.
> >
> >
> > Black Carbon. In 1995, the IPCC had to explain in its Second
> > Assessment Report why its previous predictions of global
> >temperature
> > change were nearly three times larger than observed in the
> >actual
> > temperature record. The SAR concluded that emissions of
> >sulfate
> > aerosols from burning coal were offsetting the warming that
> >should be
> > caused by carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Sulfate
> >aerosols,
> > according to this explanation, reflect incoming solar
> >radiation back to
> > space, thereby cooling the planet.
> >
> >
> > The TAR takes the sulfate aerosol idea even further. The SAR
> >had
> > predicted a temperature rise of 1 to 3.5 degrees C (1.8 to
> >6.3 degrees F)
> > over the next 100 years. The TAR goes even further,
> >anticipating a 1.4 to
> > 5.8 degrees C (2.52 to 10.44 degrees F) rise in temperature.
> >The
> > extreme case scenario of a 5.8 degrees C of warming, for
> >instance, is
> > based partly on assumptions that the whole world will raise
> >its level of
> > economic activity to that of the U.S., will equal U.S. per
> >capita energy
> > use, and energy use will be carbon intensive. The primary
> >assumption
> > behind the new scenario, however, is that sulfate aerosol
> >emissions will
> > be eliminated by government regulation, giving carbon dioxide
> >free
> > reign.[6]
> >
> > Sulfate aerosols, then, are a key component of catastrophic
> >global
> > warming scenarios. Without them, the IPCC cannot explain why
> >the
> > earth is not warming according to their forecasts, nor can
> >they
> > reasonably claim that global warming will lead to
> >catastrophes of biblical
> > proportions.
> >
> > A new study in Nature eliminates sulfate aerosols as a
> >corrective for the
> > models. [7] The author, Mark Jacobson, a professor with the
> >Department
> > of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford University,
> >examines
> > how black carbon aerosols affect the Earth's climate. Unlike
> >other
> > aerosols that reflect solar radiation back into space, black
> >carbon (soot)
> > absorbs solar radiation, thereby raising atmospheric
> >temperatures.
> >
> > Until now the warming influence of black carbon was thought
> >to be minor,
> > leading researchers to ignore it. James Hansen, with the
> >Goddard
> > Institute for Space Studies, in a paper published in August
> >2000, first
> > suggested that black carbon plays an important role in global
> > warming.[8] Jacobson found "a higher positive forcing from
> >black carbon
> > than previously thought, suggesting that the warming effect
> >from black
> > carbon may nearly balance the net cooling effect of other
> >anthropogenic
> > aerosol constituents."
> >
> > There you have it. Soot offsets the cooling effect of other
> >aerosols,
> > meaning we are back at square one. Scientists still do not
> >have a
> > plausible explanation for why the Earth has failed to warm in
> >line with
> > climate model results. Indeed, all the prognostications of
> >the IPCC are
> > wrong if the Nature study is right.
> >
> >
> > Natural Cycles. The main propaganda device of the TAR is the
> >"hockey
> > stick graph." The graph is a temperature record derived from
> >tree rings
> > dating back to 1000 AD and running through 1900, with the
> >20th century
> > thermometer-based temperature data attached at the end.[9]
> >It claims to
> > show that global temperatures have remained steady or even
> >decreased
> > during the last millennium until the industrial age, when
> >there was an
> > anomalous warming represented by the blade of the hockey
> >stick. The
> > hockey stick is largely bogus, however. The margin of error
> >is so large
> > that nearly any temperature trend could be drawn to fit
> >within it.
> >
> >
> >
> > The hockey stick features prominently in all of IPCC Chairman
> >Robert
> > Watson's speeches, and to the uninitiated it is very
> >persuasive. Senator
> > John McCain (R-AZ), for example, expressed alarm when he saw
> >the
> > graph at Commerce Committee hearings last May.
> >
> >
> > Watson uses the hockey stick to claim that current warming is
> >greater
> > than at any other time in the last 1,000 years. The Medieval
> >Warm
> > Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) were two naturally
> >occurring
> > events during the last millennium where the range of global
> >temperature
> > change exceeded that of the 20th century. During the MWP,
> >global
> > temperatures were higher than they are today. The MWP,
> >however, does
> > not show up in the hockey stick graph.
> >
> > The hockey stick has effectively been dismantled in a recent
> >study in
> > Science, however.[10] Wallace Broecker, of the
> >Lamont-Doherty Earth
> > Observatory, argues that the MWP and the LIA were indeed
> >global
> > phenomena. Referring to the hockey stick, Broecker notes, "A
> >recent,
> > widely cited reconstruction leaves the impression that the
> >20th century
> > warming was unique during the last millennium. It shows no
> >hint of the
> > Medieval Warm Period (from around 800 to 1200 A.D.) during
> >which the
> > Vikings colonized Greenland, suggesting that this warm event
> >was
> > regional rather than global. It also remains unclear why just
> >at the dawn
> > of the Industrial Revolution and before the emission of
> >substantial
> > amounts of anthropogenic [manmade] greenhouse gases, Earth's
> > temperature began to rise steeply."
> >
> >
> > Broecker reviewed several scientific studies which
> >reconstruct the Earth's
> > temperature history into the distant past using various
> >proxies. He
> > concludes, "The post-1860 natural warming was the most recent
> >in a
> > series of similar warmings spaced at roughly 1500-year
> >intervals
> > throughout the present interglacial, the Holocene."[11] In
> >other words,
> > the current warm period may just be attributable to natural
> >cycles.
> >
> >
> > Flawed Temperature Data. The National Oceanic and
> >Atmospheric
> > Administration (NOAA) claimed that the year 2000 was the
> >sixth
> > warmest since 1880. Other temperature records find less
> >warming.[12]
> > Last year was only the 14th warmest, or 9th coolest, year
> >since 1979
> > according to the satellite temperature record,[13] and only
> >the 9th
> > warmest, according to records that include only measurements
> >from
> > meteorological stations.[14]
> >
> > The NOAA data, which is cited by government officials and the
> >news
> > media, may be the least accurate, according to a study that
> >recently
> > appeared in Geophysical Research Letters.[15] The NOAA
> >datasets "are
> > a mixture of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea
> >water
> > temperatures over oceans," according to lead author Dr. John
> >Christy,
> > professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth
> >System
> > Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.
> >
> > Since actual air temperature data over many large ocean areas
> >are
> > nonexistent, the NOAA uses sea surface temperatures as a
> >"proxy,"
> > assuming that sea surface temperatures and air temperatures
> >move in
> > lock step. This is not the case, according to the data
> >compiled by
> > Christy and his colleagues at the Hadley Centre of the United
> >Kingdom's
> > Meteorological Office, who worked on the study. The
> >researchers used
> > buoy data in the tropical Pacific Ocean to compare "long-term
> >xxx xxxx xxxxyear)
> > trends for temperatures recorded one meter below the sea
> >surface and
> > three meters above it."
> >
> > What they found was a significant discrepancy. "For each
> >buoy in the
> > Eastern Pacific, the air temperatures measured at the three
> >meter height
> > showed less of a warming trend than did the same buoy's water
> > temperatures at one meter depth," the study said. The
> >difference is a
> > near-surface seawater warming trend of 0.37 degrees C per
> >decade and
> > an air temperature trend of only 0.25 degrees C per decade
> >during the
> > 20-year period tested. Replacing the sea surface
> >temperatures with the
> > air temperature data reduces the Earth's global warming trend
> >by a third,
> > from 0.19 to 0.13 degree C per decade.
> >
> > This is significant due to difficulties with reconciling the
> >various global
> > temperature data sets, particularly the discrepancy between
> >tropospheric
> > temperatures measured by satellites that show little to no
> >warming, and
> > the surface-based temperature data that show slightly more
> >warming.
> > Last year, the National Research Council stated that both
> >temperature
> > records are correct and speculated about an explanation.[16]
> >
> > This brings up another problem, however. The standard
> >explanation of
> > the greenhouse effect suggests warming occurs first five
> >kilometers
> > above the earth's surface in the atmospheric layer known as
> >the
> > troposphere. How events at the surface are connected to what
> >happens
> > high in the atmosphere is not clear, but it is believed that
> >surface
> > warming would follow tropospheric warming through climatic
> >processes
> > such as air circulation.[17] If both temperature records are
> >correct, then
> > this explanation of the greenhouse effect is wrong. Christy
> >et al. brings
> > the surface temperature data into closer agreement with the
> >satellite
> > data, suggesting that a better explanation for the
> >discrepancy is flawed
> > surface data.
> >
> > Progressive Science. At a press conference at the National
> >Press
> > Club on April 18, Mr. Jan Pronk, chairman of the Sixth
> >Conference of the
> > Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
> >Change
> > said most issues were still on the table in the ongoing Kyoto
> >negotiations
> > but the scientific basis of catastrophic global warming could
> >not be
> > questioned. That would be like going back ten years, he
> >said. This is a
> > myopic and erroneous view of science. Science is not static
> >but
> > dynamic. It reaches tentative conclusions at best, and those
> > conclusions constantly give way to new data. The IPCC is a
> >static
> > process, however. The Third Assessment Report is already
> >obsolete and
> > it has not even been released yet. With these four recent
> >studies, it may
> > be time to bid catastrophic global warming theory a warm
> >farewell.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > [1] "Evidence of Rapid Global Warming Accepted by 99 Nations,"
> >Environment News Service, January 22,
> > 2001.
> > [2] Richard S. Lindzen, Ming-Dah Chou, and Arthur Y. Hou, "Does the
> >Earth Have an Adaptive Infrared Iris?,
> > Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82:417-32, March
> >2001.
> > [3] ftp://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/PAO/Releases/2001/01-18.htm
> > [4] "Is Globe Warming? Sure, But Far Less than Alarmists Say,"
> >Tech Central Station
> > (http://www.techcentralstation.com/BigShotFriday.asp), March 5,
> >2001.
> > [5] Roy W. Spencer and William D. Braswell, "How Dry is the
> >Tropical Free Troposphere? Implications for
> > Global Warming Theory," Bulletin of the American Meteorological
> >Society, 78:1xxx xxxx xxxx.
> > [6] In correspondence with Nature magazine, one of the IPCC's
> >coordinating lead authors, Thomas Stocker of
> > the Physics Institute at the University of Bern in Switzerland,
> >wrote, "First, although climate modeling has
> > advanced during the past five years, this is not the main reason
> >for the revised range of temperature
> > projections. The higher estimates of maximum warming by the year
> >2100 stem from a more realistic view of
> > sulphate aerosol emissions. The new scenarios assume emissions
> >will be reduced substantially in the coming
> > decades, as this becomes technically and economically feasible, to
> >avoid acid rain. Sulphate emissions have
> > a cooling effect, so reducing them leads to higher estimates of
> >warming." See "Climate panel looked at all
> > the evidence," Nature, 410: 299, March 15, 2001.
> > [7] Mark Z. Jacobson, "Strong radiative heating due to the mixing
> >state of black carbon in atmospheric
> > aerosols," Nature, 409: 695-72, February 8, 2001.
> > [8] James D. Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Andrew Lacis, and
> >Valdir Oinas, "Global Warming in the
> > twenty-first century: An alternative scenario," Proceedings of the
> >National Academy of Sciences,
> > 97:9xxx xxxx xxxx.
> > [9] The tree ring data originated with Michael E. Mann, Raymond S.
> >Bradley and Malcolm K. Hughes,
> > "Northern Hemisphere Temperatures During the Past Millennium:
> >Inferences, Uncertainties, and Limitations,"
> > Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 759, March 15, 1999.
> > [10] Wallace S. Broecker, "Was the Medieval Warm Period Global?"
> >Science, 291: 1497-99, February 23,
> > 2001.
> > [11] Also see H.H. Lamb, Climate History and the Modern World, (New
> >York: Routledge, 1985), and Brian
> > Fagan, The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History, 1xxx xxxx xxxx,
> >(New York: Basic Books, 2000).
> > [12] http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/research/2000/ann/ann.html
> > [13] http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/MSU/msusci.html
> > [14] http://www.john-daly.com/press/press-01.htm#Phil
> > [15] John R. Christy, David E. Parker, Simon J. Brown, Ian Macadam,
> >Martin Stendal, and William B. Norris,
> > "Differential Trends in Tropical Sea Surface and Atmospheric
> >Temperatures since 1979," Geophysical
> > Research Letters, 28:183.
> > [16] Reconciling Observations of Global Temperature Change,
> >National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.,
> > 2000.
> > [17] Richard S. Lindzen, "Climate Forecasting: When Models are
> >Qualitatively Wrong," George C. Marshall
> > Institute, Washington, D.C., 2000.
> >
> >
> >
> >
Original Filename: 999293834.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Klaus Hasselmann <klaus.hasselmann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Carlo.Jaeger@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Martin Welp <Martin.Welp@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, schellnhuber@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, Ottmar.Edenhofer@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tol@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ccarraro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ccarraro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, juergen.engelhard@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, baldur.eliasson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, hourcade@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ola.johannessen@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gretz@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, bill.hare@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, SSinger@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, guentherr@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, gberz@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Re: ECF position paper
Date: Fri Aug 31 17:37:xxx xxxx xxxx
Klaus,
A few belated comments on your 1st draft ...... which is looking promising:
a. we need to be careful about using concepts/terms such as 'unacceptable' global warming.
As I think Richard Tol says, we do not have any sound basis for determining what
constitutes 'dangerous' climate change. Is it one life lost? a nation-state inundated?
or some more utilitarian exceedance of a benefit/cost ratio? Does every citizen on the
planet have a vote or just each government? We should draw attention to the rather flimsy
basis upon which notions of safe or dangerous, tolerable or unacceptable climate change are
debated. In the end of course there are lots of things we may view as 'unacceptable' (war
for example), yet they happen and we survive. I think this is an area rich for research
and we could draw out some of the dimensions.
b. later on you use the idea of balancing abatements costs vs. the risks of climate
change. I think we need to use the language of risk here and to draw upon insights
developed by risk analysts (academic and professionals) about how we frame the climate
change problem in risk terms. The differential perceptions of risks, inc. climate ones,
therefore becomes central in addressing point a.
c. the proposed ECF project on changes in extreme weather is of course a necessary first
step towards the quantification of climate risks. This should be one of the justifications
for work in this area. It is also the case that better understanding of these changes will
yield insights into how adaptation does or should proceed, at both environmental systems
and institutional systems levels.
d. re. nuclear energy in a climate protection portfolio, the ECF should be bold and should
question and expose assumptions made on both sides of the debate about the up and
down-sides of this technology. It is rising higher on the UK agenda and there will be some
challenging times ahead in this country about its rightful place and role.
I look forward to seeing the second draft,
Mike
At 14:24 11/08/01 +0200, Klaus Hasselmann wrote:
Dear colleague:
I was requested on the 6.August telephone conference by the ECF skeleton board and the
members of the former ECF steering committe to coordinate the writing of an ECF position
paper, as agreed upon at the ECF meeting in Brussels on July 12.
It was proposed that we complete the position paper and present it to the press about a
week in advance of the Marrakech COP 7 meeting in November this year.
I suggest the following timetable:
1) preliminary agreement on the structure and contents of the paper by the end of this
month,
2) production of first draft in September,
3) detailed discussion of first draft on 2nd October in Potsdam (an additional day ahead
of the 3-4.October ECF meeting, which was proposed on 6.August to discuss the details of
the various projects agreed upon at the Brussels meeting)
4) completion of the paper in October.
5) November: presentation of the paper
I would hope that apart from the 2nd October meeting we can achieve our task by e-mail.
But a meeting may be necessary in September. If so, we should try to combine it with one
of the other project meetings that will be taking place in September.
Everybody is invited to participate. Please feel free to copy this mail to other ECF
members or potential members who I may have missed.
It has been suggested that the position paper should be short, about 5 pages, plus some
appendices if necessary.To get the discussion going, I propose the attached structure as
straw man. Please note that many of the points I have listed are my own views, and I
will by happy to - and expect to - modify them based on your responses.
With best regards
Klaus
Prof. Dr. Klaus Hasselmann
work: Max Planck Institute of Meteorology,
Bundestrasse 55, D21046 Hamburg, Germany
Tel. (+49) (0xxx xxxx xxxxFax. (+49) (0xxx xxxx xxxx
home: Schulstr. 79, D 25368 Kiebitzreihe
Tel. (+49) (0)4xxx xxxx xxxx, Fax. (+49) (0)4xxx xxxx xxxx
e-mail: klaus.hasselmann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Original Filename: 1006983600.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "R K Pachauri" <pachauri@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: TERI launches TerraGreen, an e-magazine on the environment
Date: Wed, 28 Nov 2001 16:40:00 +0530
TERI is proud to announce the launch of TerraGreen (http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/), an e-magazine that will bring you news about energy, environment and sustainable development from India, once every two weeks.
TerraGreen was formally launched on Wednesday, November 28, 2001 by Mr. C. M. Vasudev, Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Government of India in New Delhi.
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TERRAGREEN
News to Save the Earth
Issue 1, xxx xxxx xxxxNovember, 2001
Letter from the editor
Here is the first issue of TerraGreen, an e-magazine that will bring to you the most significant shakeouts in India's energy, environment and sustainable development scenarios. For concerned individuals across the world looking for reliable news and information in these fields from India has often been an uphill task. TERI has worked for over quarter of a century to disseminate information from these very fields. Taking that mandate forward, TerraGreen will bring you analytical, unbiased and straightforward reportage. In the wilderness of the Internet you will soon learn to rely on TerraGreen for news, views and information. So, welcome to the wilderness. Enjoy.
For full text click on: http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/letter.htm
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News of the fortnight
What's happening in our green horizons and elsewhere? TerraGreen's news updates bring you the latest in environment news.
This issue's headlines
Pepper and people power
Periyar Tiger Reserve, Kerala- The India Ecodevelopment Project brings a much-needed economic fillip to the lives of Mannan and Paliyan tribals through pepper cooperatives. Find out how it all happened at http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/news.htm#pepper
Sunny through the clouds
New Delhi- Anybody for the sun? Soft loans for setting up solar water heaters in group housing societies from IREDA. Visit http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/news.htm#sunny to also find out about sun-powered electricity in the high, cold reaches of the Himalayas, for villagers in Leh and Kargil.
Of Birds and War
Afghanistan- The terror of war and bombings in Afghanistan is spreading far. So hangs the fate of India's winged migratory friends -- the Siberian crane, shoveller ducks, the crested poacher and Arctic tern, to name a few. At http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/news.htm#birds read about these avian anxieties.
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The Long Story
Let the Gentle Giants Be
Veraval, Gujarat- Fahmeeda Hanfee's first-hand report on the huge but vulnerable whale shark, and on a milestone that is something of a first in the official protection for marine life in India. Hanfee analyses the pros and cons at http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/feature.htm#f1
The Water Harvest
Kalakhoont-Madhya Pradesh, Sangani-Gujarat- Arnab Ray Ghatak's inspiring report of villagers (http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/feature.htm#f2) who looked beyond governmental apathy to drill water from parched lands on their own and are now reaping a golden harvest.
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In Conversation
At a time when a lot of people across India are grappling with power shortages, Mr Suresh P. Prabhu, Union Minister for Power, talks to TerraGreen's executive editor in a one-on-one.
http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/interview.htm
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Centrepiece
No one Need Go Hungry
Dr. L. C. Jain, Chairman, Industrial Development Services, economist and Gandhian, Dr L C Jain, unfolds a simple blueprint to change the bizarre food security situation India faces today - of rotting foodgrains and starvation deaths. Read more about Jain's views at http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/essay.htm. He laments that if Gandhi were to be around today and learnt of this cruel irony, he would invite an assassin to end his life.
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Reviews
Get the latest on your green reads. This week: Subhadra Menon reviews Brenda Cranney's The Mountain Women of Himachal Pradesh. Plus more short reviews at http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/reviews.htm
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Ever wondered how to reach people working at the grass-roots? To be able to make a difference? Let nothing stop you, contact them to work alongside, or just to help. Go to: http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/people.htm
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At http://www.teriin.org/terragreen/issue1/facts.htm check out some interesting facts about the environment around us.
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Original Filename: 1018629153.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Keith Briffa <k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Ed Cook <drdendro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Your letter to Science
Date: Fri, 12 Apr 2002 12:32:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: Malcolm Hughes <mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Malcolm Hughes <mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, esper@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tcrowley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jto@u.arizona.edu, srutherford@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Whoaah...Please don't put words in my mouth Keith, especially such inflamatory word!
I was not attributing the entirety of "spin" here (which is of a pretty massive scale) to
you! And I said I think such "spin", where it has occurred, is EITHER sloppy OR
disingenuous. You chose to assume I was talking about you in specific, and that I was
attributing the latter rather than the former. My actual words don't bear this out. In the
case of the Briffa & Osborn piece, I actually tend to believe that sloppiness was the main
problem. In other cases of "spin" (e.g., the skeptics web pages of Daly and his ilk) it is
most clearly disingenousnous...I don't equate you with Daly and those folks by any stretch
of the imagination. Hopefully, you know that I respect you quite a bit as a scientist! But
in this case, I think you were sloppy. And the sloppiness had a real cost...
And as to whether or not your statements about IPCC are fair (I didn't use the word
"disservice"!), I'll leave that to each to decide. But personally, I think they were
unfair, because they opened up IPCC to criticism that is not merited by what is actually
said or shown in the iPCC report. Other IPCC authors who have contacted me feel the same
way, and perhaps there may be an official response on the part of IPCC authors. I don't
know.
But I agree that any further discussion ought to take place in the peer-reviewed
literature,
Mike
At 05:09 PM 4/12/02 +0100, Keith Briffa wrote:
I agree with the sentiments expressed by Tom . However, in his latest message Mike
clearly says that our perspectives piece did the IPCC a disservice. He then accuses us
of spinning the ECS paper to say that MBH is an underestimate of what it purports to be
and that we have been sloppy and disingenuous. Frankly this is too much to take . I am
not going to let this ruin my weekend so I wait until I have calmed down and find time
next week to write a response. In the meantime I just wanted to note that I disagree
with these comments. Perhaps the best place to continue this discussion is in the peer
review literature.
Keith
At 11:11 AM 4/12/xxx xxxx xxxx, Michael E. Mann wrote:
Ed and others,
I thought I too should chime in here one last time...
I'll leave it to you, Malcolm, Keith and others to debate out the issue of any
additional uncertainties, biases, etc. that might arise from RCS in the presence of
limited samples. That is beyond my range of expertise. But since this is a new and
relatively untested approach, and it is on the basis of this approach that other
estimates are being argued to be "underestimates", we would indeed have been remiss now
to point this out in our letter.
The wording "perilous" perhaps should be changed, by I very much stand by the overall
sentiment expressed by Malcolm in our piece with regard to RCS.
One very important additional point that Malcolm makes in his message is that
conservative estimates of uncertainties, appropriate additional caveats, etc. were
indeed all provided in MBH99, and I have always been careful to interpret our results in
the context of these uncertainties and caveats. IPCC '2001 was careful to do so to, and
based its conclusions within the context of the uncertainties (hence the choice of the
conservative term "likely" in describing the apparently unprecedented nature of late
20th century warmth) and, moreover, on the collective results of many independent
reconstructions. Briffa & Osborn would have you believe that IPCC '2001's conclusions in
this regard rested on MBH99 alone. Frankly, Keith and Tim, I believe that is unfair to
the IPCC, whether or not one cares about being fair to MBH or not.
What is unfortunate here then is that Esper et al has been "spun" i to argue that MBH99
underestimates the quantity it purports to estimate, full Northern Hemisphere annual
mean temperature. Given the readily acknowledged level of uncertainty in both estimates,
combined with the "apples and oranges" nature of the comparison between the two (which
I have sought to clarify in my letter to Science, and in my messages to you all, and the
comparison plot I provided), I believe it is either sloppy or disingenuous reasoning
to argue that this is the case. The fact that this sloppiness also readily serves the
interests of the skeptics is quite unfortunate, but it is indeed beside the point!
It would probably also be helpful for me to point out, without naming names, that many
of our most prominent colleagues in the climate research community, as well government
funding agency representatives, have personally contacted me over the past few weeks to
express their dismay at the way they believe this study was spun. I won't get into the
blame game, because there's more than enough of that to go around. But when the leaders
of our scientific research community and our funding managers personally alert us that
they believe the credibility of our field has been damaged, I think it is time for some
serious reflection on this episode.
that's my final 2 cents,
Mike
_______________________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
[1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.[2]shtml
References
1. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
2. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
Original Filename: 1018647333.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: "Michael E. Mann" <mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Ed Cook <drdendro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Your letter to Science
Date: Fri, 12 Apr 2002 17:35:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: Malcolm Hughes <mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Malcolm Hughes <mhughes@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, esper@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, k.briffa@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, t.osborn@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, tcrowley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, rbradley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, jto@u.arizona.edu, srutherford@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Dear Ed, Tom, Keith, etc.
In keeping w/ the spirit of Tom's and Keith's emails, I wanted to stress, before we all
break for the weekend, that this is ultimately about the science, its not personal. If my
comments seemed to assail e.g. Keith's motives or integrity, etc. I believe that they were
misunderstood (as I tried to clarify that in my previous message), but I can see that
there was a potential for misunderstanding of my message (precision in wording is very
important) given the high levels of sensitivity in this debate. So I wanted to leave no
uncertainty about that. And of course, I very much apologize to Keith (and Tim) if they
took them my comments that way. They, again, were most decidedly not intended that way.
I hope we can resolve the scientific issues objectively, and w/out injecting or any
personal feelings into any of this. There are some substantial scientific differences here,
lets let them play out the way they are supposed to, objectively, and in the peer reviewed
literature.
Enjoy the weekend all.
cheers,
Mike
At 01:35 PM 4/12/xxx xxxx xxxx, Ed Cook wrote:
Hi Mike, Tom, etc,
Okay, I am quite happy to give this debate a rest, although I am sure that the issues
brought up will still be grounds for scientific debate. I admit to getting a bit riled
when I saw the ECS results on the MWP described as "perilous" because I regard that as
being an unfair characterization of the work presented. Be that as it may, my reply to
Science will be very carefully worded so as not to inflame the issues. Nuff said. Have a
good weekend. I certainly intend to do so.
Ed
Ed and others,
I thought I too should chime in here one last time...
I'll leave it to you, Malcolm, Keith and others to debate out the issue of any
additional uncertainties, biases, etc. that might arise from RCS in the presence of
limited samples. That is beyond my range of expertise. But since this is a new and
relatively untested approach, and it is on the basis of this approach that other
estimates are being argued to be "underestimates", we would indeed have been remiss now
to point this out in our letter.
The wording "perilous" perhaps should be changed, by I very much stand by the overall
sentiment expressed by Malcolm in our piece with regard to RCS.
One very important additional point that Malcolm makes in his message is that
conservative estimates of uncertainties, appropriate additional caveats, etc. were
indeed all provided in MBH99, and I have always been careful to interpret our results in
the context of these uncertainties and caveats. IPCC '2001 was careful to do so to, and
based its conclusions within the context of the uncertainties (hence the choice of the
conservative term "likely" in describing the apparently unprecedented nature of late
20th century warmth) and, moreover, on the collective results of many independent
reconstructions. Briffa & Osborn would have you believe that IPCC '2001's conclusions in
this regard rested on MBH99 alone. Frankly, Keith and Tim, I believe that is unfair to
the IPCC, whether or not one cares about being fair to MBH or not.
What is unfortunate here then is that Esper et al has been "spun" i to argue that MBH99
underestimates the quantity it purports to estimate, full Northern Hemisphere annual
mean temperature. Given the readily acknowledged level of uncertainty in both estimates,
combined with the "apples and oranges" nature of the comparison between the two (which
I have sought to clarify in my letter to Science, and in my messages to you all, and the
comparison plot I provided), I believe it is either sloppy or disingenuous reasoning
to argue that this is the case. The fact that this sloppiness also readily serves the
interests of the skeptics is quite unfortunate, but it is indeed beside the point!
It would probably also be helpful for me to point out, without naming names, that many
of our most prominent colleagues in the climate research community, as well government
funding agency representatives, have personally contacted me over the past few weeks to
express their dismay at the way they believe this study was spun. I won't get into the
blame game, because there's more than enough of that to go around. But when the leaders
of our scientific research community and our funding managers personally alert us that
they believe the credibility of our field has been damaged, I think it is time for some
serious reflection on this episode.
that's my final 2 cents,
Mike
At 10:21 AM 4/12/xxx xxxx xxxx, Ed Cook wrote:
Just a few comments here and then I'm done.
Dear Ed and Mike and others,
All of our attempts, so far, to estimate hemisphere-scale
temperatures for the period around 1000 years ago are
based on far fewer data than any of us would like. None
of the datasets used so far has anything like the
geographical distribution that experience with recent
centuries indicates we need, and no-one has yet found a
convincing way of validating the lower-frequency
components of them against independent data. As Ed
wrote, in the tree-ring records that form the backbone of
most of the published estimates, the problem of poor
replication near the beginnings of records is particularly
acute, and ubiquitous. I would suggest that this problem
probably cuts in closer to 1600 than 1400 in the several
published series. Therefore, I accept that everything we
are doing is preliminary, and should be treated with
considerable caution.
Therefore, I would guess that you would apply the word "perilous" to everyones'
large-scale NH reconstructions covering the past xxx xxxx xxxxyears including those that you
have been involved in. Why the sudden increase in caution now? It sounds very
self-serving to me for you to call ECS "perilous" and not describe every other
large-scale reconstruction in that way as well.
I differ from Ed, and his co-authors,
in believing that these problems have a special
significance for the particular implementation of RCS
they used, in the light of one of their conclusions that
depends heavily on that implementation.
As I understand what Ed, Keith and Hal Fritts have
written at various times about RCS, and from my own
limited experience with the method, it is extremely
important to have strong replication, and I don't see 50-70
samples probably from xxx xxxx xxxxtrees as a big sample. For
reference, most chronologies used in dendroclimatology
are based on xxx xxxx xxxxtrees, that is xxx xxxx xxxxsamples at 2 cores
per tree for a single "site", usually a few hectares.
Here are two passages from Briffa et al., 1992:
page 114, column 1, last paragraph, "For a chronology
composed of the same number of samples, one would
therefore expect a larger statistical uncertainty using this
approach than in a chronology produced using
standardization curves fitted to the data from individual
trees...............The RCS method therefore requires greater
chronology depth (i.e. greater sample replication) to
provide the same level of confidence in its representation
of the hypothetical "true" chronology." ECS mention this
issue.
As I said in my previous email, we hid nothing in terms of the uncertainty concerning
the pre-1200 interval. Are you suggesting that we should not have even shown those
results? If so, that is ridiculous.
page 114, column 1, third paragraph, there is a discussion
of the problems arising from applying RCS when pith age
is not known, "In the ring-width data, the final
standardization curve probably slightly underestimates
the width of young trees and could therefore impart a
small positive bias to the standardized ring-width indices
for young rings in a number of series. However, this
effect will be insignificant when the biased indices are
realigned according to calendar growth years and
averaged with many other series." The problem here is
that this latter condition is not met (in my view), and the
"small positive bias" that may be retained could turn out
to be important to the most controversial conclusion of
ECS (the Medieval question).
I can't speak for Jan here, but most of the data he used came from Schweingruber's lab.
I believe that pains were taken to estimate the pith offset and that Jan used this
information in his RCS analyses. Jan would be best to comment here. In any case, Jan has
done a number of experiments in which he has artificially added large pith offset errors
into the RCS analysis and the resulting bias is small. So, I do not believe that your
"view" is correct.
I also suspect that Keith
and colleagues underestimated both the size and
variability of the loss of years at the beginning of records,
but the point stands even if this is not so. So far as I can
see, ECS do not mention this issue, at least in the context
of a possible positive bias.
Are you claiming that the only possible bias is positive? I can show you examples of a
probable negative bias using RCS.
The discussion of RCS in the
supplementary materials seems to assume good
replication.
It was a generic description of the method. The replication is clearly shown in the
supplementary materials section as well as in the main paper. If you don't like the
replication, that is your opinion. I would love to have more replication as well. Who
wouldn't. But we did show the uncertainties, which you seem to ignore in your criticism.
Ironically, the ECS estimates of warmth in the MWP are not that dissimilar to those seen
in MBH, as ECS Fig. 3 shows. Are the MBH estimates of MWP warmth also similarly biased?
ECS, as Ed rightly points out, clearly indicate, in both
words and diagrams at several points in their paper and in
the supplementary materials, that the number of sites and
number of samples they used decreases sharply before
1200. Even so, ECS gives prominence (second sentence
of the abstract, for example) to the reconstruction in that
very period, and makes a comparison with the magnitude
of 20th-century warming. All the methods, and their
realizations so far, have significant problems. In our letter
(Mike and I) we draw attention to a specific problem with
this implementation of RCS that has a special bearing on
the reconstruction of a period to which ECS have drawn
attention. Hence the strong note of caution about the ECS
conclusion on the comparison between the 10th/11th and
late 20th centuries.
I hope it's clear from this that I don't disagree with the
general proposition that all existing reconstructions of
hemipsphere-scale temperatures 1000 years ago (or even
for all the first half of the second millennium AD) should
be viewed as very preliminary. If anyone is interested I
attach a short note on the replication in the year AD 1000
of records used in MBH99 to give an idea of what we are
up against.
There is obviously a lot more we can debate about here. I will simply stop here by
saying that I stand by the results shown in ECS and will say so in my reply to your
letter, pointing out that the use of the word "perilous" could be just as easily be
applied to MBH.
We all have a lot to do. I see four important tasks - 1)
more investigation of the strengths and limitations of
methods like RCS and age-banding - for example, how
many samples would have been enough in this case, does
the RC change through time? and so on; 2) use of tree-
ring records where the loss of low-frequency information
is least - those with long segments from open stands; 3)
the search for tree-ring parameters without age/size
related trend; 4) the development of completely
independent proxies with intrinsically better low-
frequency fidelity.
Cheers, Malcolm
The Briffa et al reference is to the 1992 paper, Climate
Dynamics, 7:xxx xxxx xxxx
Hi Ed,
OK--thanks for your response. I'll let Malcolm respond to the
technical issues regarding RC. I'm not really qualified to do so
myself anyway. Your other points are well taken...
Cheers,
Mike
At 12:09 PM 4/11/xxx xxxx xxxx, Edward Cook wrote:
Hi Mike,
Thanks for the reply. I too do not want to see anything
personal in our disagreements. It would be a shame if it got to
that and it shouldn't. I don't think that the science we are
talking about is sufficiently known yet to claim the "truth",
which is why we are having some of our disagreements. I mainly
wanted to clarify some issues relating to some criticisms of the
ECS results that I thought were not totally fair. My biggest
complaint is with Malcolm's contribution to your letter because it
really isn't fair to use such words as "perilous". ECS did not
hide anything and the uncertainties are clearly indicated in EGS
> Figs. 2 and 3. So, you can make your own judgement. However,
Malcolm's opinion does not invalidate the ECS record. If Malcolm's
statement is correct, than ALL previous estimates of NH
temperature over the past 1000 years are "perilous", especially
before AD 1400 when the number of series available declines
significantly in most records.
Ed
Ed,
It will take some time to digest these comments, but my
initial response is one of some disappointment. I will
resist the temptation to make the letter to Science
available to the others on this list, because of my fears of
violating the embargo policy (I know examples of where doing so
has led to Science retracting a piece form publication). So thanks
for also resisting the temptation to do so...
But I must point out that the piece by Malcolm and me
is very similar in its content to the letter of clarification that
you and I originally crafted to send to Science some weeks ago,
before your co-author objected to your involvement! If there is no
objection on your part, I'd be happy to send that to everyone,
because it is not under consideration in Science (a quite
unfortunate development, as far as I'm concerned). The only real
change from that version is the discussion of the use of RCS. That
is in large part Malcolm's contribution, but I stand behind what
> Malcolm says. I think there are some real sins of omission with
regard to the use of RCS too, and it would be an oversight on our
part now to comment on these.
Finally, with regard to the scaling issues, let me simply
attach a plot which speaks more loudly than several
pages possibly could The plot takes Epser et al (not
smoothed, but the annual values) and scales it against the
full Northern Hemisphere instrumental record 1xxx xxxx xxxx
annual mean record, and compares against the entire 20th
century instrumental record (1xxx xxxx xxxx), as well as with
MBH99 and its uncertainties.
Suppose that Esper et al is indeed representative of the
fullNorthern Hemisphere annual mean, as MBH99
purports to be. To the extent that differences emerge
between the two in assuming such a scaling, I interpret
them as differences which exist due to the fact that the
extratropical Northern Hemisphere series and full
Northern Hemisphere series likely did not co-vary in the
past the same way they co-vary in the 20th century (when
both are driven predominantly, in a relative sense, by
anthropogenic forcing, rather than natural forcing and
internal variability). What the plot shows is quite
remarkable. Scaled in this way, there is remarkably little
difference between Esper et al and MBH99 in the first
place (the two reconstructions are largely within the error
estimates of MBH99!)!, but moreover, where they do
differ, this could be explainable in terms of patterns of
enhanced mid-latitude continental response that were
discussed, for example, in Shindell et al (2001) in
Science last December. So I think this plot says a lot. Its
say that there are some statistically significant
differences, but certainly no grounds to use Esper et al to
contradict MBH99 or IPCC '2001 as, sadly, I believe at
least one of the published pieces tacitly appears to want
to do.
It is shame that such a plot, which I think is a far more
meaningful comparison of the two records, was not
shown in either Esper et al or the Briffa & Osborn
commentary. I've always given the group of you adequate
opportunity for commentary on anything we're about to
publish in Nature or Science. I am saddened that many of
my colleagues (and, I have always liked to think friends)
didn't affort me the same opportunity before this all
erupted in our face. It could have been easily avoided.
But that's water under the bridge.
>
Finally, before any more back-and-forths on this, I want
to make sure that everyone involved understands that
none of this was in any way ever meant to be personal, at
least not on my part (and if it ever has, at least on my
part, seemed that way, than I offer my apologies--it was
never intended that way). This is completely about the
"science". To the extent that I (and/or others) feel that the
science has been mis-represented in places, however, I personally
will work very hard to make sure that a more balanced view is
available to the community. Especially because the implications
are so great in this case. This is what I sought to do w/ the NYT
piece and my NPR interview, and that is what I've sought to do
(and Malcolm to, as far as I'm concerned) with the letter to
Science. Being a bit sloppy w/ wording, and omission, etc. is
something we're all guilty of at times. But I do consider it
somewhat unforgivable when it is obvious how that sloppiness can
be exploited. And you all know exactly what I'm talking about!
So, in short, I think are some fundamental issues over
which we're in disagreement, and where those exist, I will
not shy away from pointing them out. But I hope that is
not mis-interpreted as in any way personal.
I hope that suffices,
>
Mike
p.s. It seemed like an omission to not cc in Peck and
Scott Rutherford on this exchange, so I've done that. I
hope nobody minds this addition...
At 10:57 AM 4/11/xxx xxxx xxxx, Edward Cook wrote:
Hi Mike and Malcolm,
I have received the letter that you sent to Science
and will respond to it here first in some detail and
later in edited and condensed form in Science.
Since much of what you comment and criticize on
has been disseminated to a number of people in
your (Mike's) somewhat inflammatory earlier
emails, I am also sending this lengthy reply out to
everyone on that same email list, save those at
Science. I hadn't responded in detail before, but
do so now because your criticisms will soon be in
the public domain. However, I am not attaching
your letter to Science to this email since that is
not yet in the public domain. It is up to you to
send out your submitted letter to everyone if you
wish.
I must say at the beginning that some parts of
your letter to Science are as "flawed" as your
claims about Esper et al. (hereafter ECS). The
Briffa/Osborn perspectives piece points out an
important scaling issue that indeed needs further
examination. However, to claim as you do that
they show that the ECS 40-year low-pass
temperature reconstruction is "flawed" begs the
question: "flawed" by how much? It is not at all
clear that scaling the annually resolved RCS
chronology to annually resolved instrumental
temperatures first before smoothing is the correct
way to do it. The ECS series was never created to
examine annual, or even decadal, time-scale
temperature variability. Rather, as was clearly
indicated in the paper, it was created to show how
one can preserve multi-centennial climate
variability in certain long tree-ring records, as a
refutation of Broecker's truly "flawed" essay. As
ECS showed in their paper (Table 1), the high-
frequency correlations with NH mean annual
temperatures after 20-year high-pass filtering is
only 0.15. That result was expected and it makes
no meaningful difference if one uses only extra-
tropical NH temperature data. So, while the
amplitude of the temperature-scaled 40-year low-
pass ECS series might be on the high end (but
still plausible given the gridded borehole
temperature record shown in Briffa/Osborn),
scaling on the annually resolved data first would
probably have the opposite effect of excessively
> reducing the amplitude. I am willing to accept an
intermediate value, but probably not low enough
to satisfy you. Really, the more important result
from ECS is the enhanced pattern of multi-
centennial variability in the NH extra-tropics over
the past 1100 years. We can argue about the
amplitude later, but the enhanced multi-centennial
variability can not be easily dismissed. I should
also point out, again, that you saw Fig. 3 in ECS
BEFORE it was even submitted to Science and
never pointed out the putative scaling "flaw" to
me at that time.
With regards to the issue of the late 20th century
warming, the fact that I did not include some
reference to or plot of the up-to-date instrumental
temperature data (cf. Briffa/Osborn) is what I
regard as a "sin of omission". What I said was
that the estimated temperatures during the MWP
in ECS "approached" those in the 20th century
portion of that record up to 1990. I don't consider
the use of "approached" as an egregious
overstatement. But I do agree with you that I
should have been a bit more careful in my
wording there. As you know, I have publicly
stated that I never intended to imply that the
MWP was as warm as the late 20th century (e.g.,
> my New York Times interview). However, it is a
bit of overkill to state twice in the closing
sentences of the first two paragraphs of your
letter that the ECS results do not refute the
unprecedented late 20th century warming. I
would suggest that once is enough.
ECS were also very clear about the extra-tropical
nature of their data. So, what you say in your
letter about the reduced amplitude in your series
coming from the tropics, while perhaps worth
pointing out again, is beating a dead horse.
However, I must say that the "sin of omission" in
the Briffa/Osborn piece concerning the series
shown in their plot is a bit worrying. As they say
in the data file of series used in their plot (and in
Keith's April 5 email response to you),
Briffa/Osborn only used your land temperature
estimates north of 20 degrees and recalibrated the
mean of those estimates to the same domain of
land-only instrumental temperatures using the
same calibration period for all of the other non-
borehole series in the same way. I would have
preferred it if they had used your data north of
30N to make the comparisons a bit more one-to-
one. However, I still think that their results are
interesting. In particular, they reproduce much of
the reduced multi-centennial temperature
variability seen in your complete NH
reconstruction. So, if the amplitude of scaled
ECS multi-centennial variability is far too high
(as you would apparently suggest), it appears that
it is also too low in your estimates for the NH
extra-tropics north of 20N. I think that we have
to stop being so aggressive in defending our
series and try to understand the strengths and
weaknesses of each in order to improve them.
That is the way that science is supposed to work.
I must admit to being really irritated over the
criticism of the ECS tree-ring data standardized
using the RCS method. First of all, ECS
acknowledged up front the declining available
data prior to 1200 and its possible effect on
interpreting an MWP in the mean record. ECS
also showed bootstrap confidence intervals for
the mean of the RCS chronologies and showed
where the chronologies drop out. Even allowing
for the reduction in the number of represented
sites before 1400 (ECS Fig. 2d), and the
reduction in overall sample size (ECS Fig. 2b),
there is still some evidence for significantly
above average growth during two intervals that
can be plausibly assigned to the MWP. Of course
> we would like to have had all 14 series cover the
past 1xxx xxxx xxxxyears. This doesn't mean that we
can't usefully examine the data in the more
weakly replicated intervals. In any case, the
replication in the MWP of the ECS chronology is
at least as good as in other published tree-ring
estimates of large-scale temperatures (e.g., NH
extra-tropical) covering the past 1000+ years. It
also includes more long tree-ring records from the
NH temperate latitudes than ever before. So to
state that "this is a perilous basis for an estimate
of temperature on such a large geographic scale"
is disingenuous, especially when it is unclear how
many millennia-long series are contributing the
majority of the temperature information in the
Mann/Bradley/Hughes (MBH) reconstruction
prior to AD 1400. Let's be balanced here.
I basically agree with the closing paragraph of
your letter. The ECS record was NEVER
intended to refute MBH. It was intended, first
and foremost, to refute Broecker's essay in
Science that unfairly attacked tree rings. To this
extent, ECS succeeded very well. The
comparison of ECS with MBH was a logical
thing to do given that it has been accepted by the
> IPCC as the benchmark reconstruction of NH
annual temperature variability and change over
the past millennium. Several other papers have
made similar comparisons between MBH and
other even more geographically restricted
estimates of past temperature. So, I don't
apologize in the slightest for doing so in ECS.
The correlations in Table 2 between ECS and
MBH were primarily intended to demonstrate the
probable large-scale, low-frequency temperature
signal in ECS independent of explicitly
calibrating the individual RCS chronologies
before aggregating them. The results should
actually have pleased you because, for the xxx xxxx xxxx
year band, ECS and MBH have correlations of
0.60 to 0.68, depending on the period used.
Given that ECS is based on a great deal of new
data not used in MBH, this result validates to a
reasonable degree the temperature signal in MBH
in the xxx xxxx xxxxyear band over the past 1000 years.
Given the incendiary and sometimes quite rude
emails that came out at the time when ECS and
Briffa/Osborn were published, I could also go
into the whole complaint about how the review
process at Science was "flawed". I will only say
that this is a very dangerous game to get into and
complaints of this kind can easily cut both ways.
I will submit an appropriately edited and
condensed version of this reply to Science.
Regards,
Ed
--
=================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook
Doherty Senior Scholar
Tree-Ring Laboratory
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York 10964 USA
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
Email: drdendro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
=================================
_____________________________________________
__________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_____________________________________________
__________________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
7770FAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
[1]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.sht
ml
Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:esper-
scaledcompare1980.jpg (JPEG/JVWR) (0008FDE3)
--
=================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook
Doherty Senior Scholar
Tree-Ring Laboratory
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York 10964 USA
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
Email: drdendro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
=================================
> ____________________________________________________
___________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
____________________________________________________
___________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (434)
xxx xxxx xxxx
[2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
Malcolm Hughes
Professor of Dendrochronology
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research
University of Arizona
Tucson, AZ 85721
xxx xxxx xxxx
fax xxx xxxx xxxx
--
==================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook
Doherty Senior Scholar
Tree-Ring Laboratory
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York 10964 USA
Email: drdendro@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
Phone: xxx xxxx xxxx
Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
==================================
_______________________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
[3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@xxxxxxxxx.xxx Phone: (4xxx xxxx xxxxFAX: (4xxx xxxx xxxx
[4]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.[5]shtml
References
1. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.sht
2. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
3. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml%A0%A0%A0%A0%A0%A0%A0%A0%A0%A0%A0%A0
4. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
5. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml
Original Filename: 1019513684.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: [Fwd: SSI Alert: IPCC Chair Vote]
Date: Mon Apr 22 18:14:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: s.raper
Phil,
I can't quite see what all the fuss is about Watson - why should he be re-nominated
anyway? Why should not an Indian scientist chair IPCC? One could argue the CC issue is
more important for the South than for the North. Watson has perhaps thrown his weight
about too much in the past. The science is well covered by Susan Solomon in WGI, so why
not get an engineer/economist since many of the issues now raised by CC are more to do with
energy and money, than natural science.
If the issue is that Exxon have lobbied and pressured Bush, then OK, this is regrettable
but to be honest is anyone really surprised? All these decisions about IPCC chairs and
co-chairs are deeply political (witness DEFRA's support of Martin Parry for getting the
WGII nomination).
Mike
At 07:17 20/04/02 +0100, you wrote:
There is more on the BBC Sci/Tech web site.
Phil
Date: Fri, 19 Apr 2002 18:24:xxx xxxx xxxx
From: Tom Wigley <wigley@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.76 [en] (Windows NT 5.0; U)
X-Accept-Language: en
To: Phil Jones <p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, Sarah Raper <s.raper@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>,
Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: [Fwd: SSI Alert: IPCC Chair Vote]
You may not have seen this latest piece of politicalization by the
Bushies.
Tom.
*************************
-------- Original Message --------
Subject: SSI Alert: IPCC Chair Vote
Date: Fri, 19 Apr 2002 18:00:xxx xxxx xxxx
From: "SSI Mailbox" <ssi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
******************* EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ********************
ISSUE: Today - April 19, 2002, the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) plenary voted for Dr. Rajendra
Pachauri as the sole chair of the IPCC. Dr. Pachauri, an
economist and engineer, will replace Dr. Robert Watson, an
atmospheric chemist, as chair of the IPCC. This outcome was
actively sought by the Bush Administration at the behest of
the most conservative elements of the fossil fuel industry.
This development threatens to undermine the scientific
credibility and integrity of the IPCC and may weaken the job
this extraordinary body has done to bring the world's
attention to one of the most pressing environmental
problems.
ACTION: Monitor your local paper and respond to news stories
with a letter-to-the-editor.
MAIN MESSAGE: Given the Bush Administration's consistent
opposition to climate change mitigation, it is especially
imperative at this time that the scientific community and
Dr. Pachauri work together to ensure that the IPCC remains a
strong and credible scientific process.
DEADLINE: As soon as possible after the story runs in your
paper -- preferably the same day but no later than a day or
two after.
******************************************
*** THE ISSUE ***
According to a report by Associated Press today (appended
below), Dr. Rajendra Pachauri was elected as Chair of the
IPCC at a plenary meeting in Geneva. As you would be aware
from our earlier SSI alerts of the past several weeks, this
follows on from intense lobbying of the US government by the
fossil fuel industry to remove Dr. Robert Watson as Chair.
Although reports from Geneva are still sketchy, our sources
on the ground tell us that there was intense behind-the-
scenes lobbying by Saudi Arabia, with assistance from Don
Pearlman -- a well known oil and gas lobbyist with strong
connections to industry-backed organizations opposed to
climate change mitigation. Through their maneuvering, the
co-chair compromise approach -- comprised of former chair
Dr. Robert Watson and Dr. Pachauri -- was not considered.
As a result of this election, there is considerable concern
in the climate science and environmental communities --
reinforced by the intensive lobbying from fossil fuel
interests on this decision -- that the Bush Administration's
lack of support for former IPCC Chair Dr. Robert Watson
signals a more general lack of support for the IPCC as a
credible international scientific assessment process that
provides governments with sound information on climate
science, impacts, and solutions.
By supporting Dr. Pachauri for primarily political purposes,
the Bush Administration has seriously threatened the
scientific credibility of the IPCC process. The conservative
fossil fuel interests should be exposed for their role in
influencing the US government's stance on this issue, and
the IPCC process must remain a scientifically credible and
non-politicized process.
The next IPCC Climate Change Assessment is due out in five
years, and it is the chair's role to oversee this complex
process. The scientific community's voice is important in
this issue to ensure that the IPCC process remains strong
under the leadership of Dr. Pachauri and that the Bush
Administration does not erode the effectiveness of this
important international body.
*** THE ACTION ***
-- Monitor your local paper and respond to news stories with
a letter-to-the-editor.
Information on how and to whom to submit a LTE is usually
found right on the Letters Page in your paper. Many papers
now accept letters via email. If you can't find the
information you need, simply call the paper and ask how to
go about submitting a letter in response to a recently
published article.
To increase the chances that your letter will be published,
do the following:
- keep it under 200 words and stay focused on one or two
main points you'd like to make;
- focus on a local angle, if possible, that adds something
new to the story that appeared in your paper;
- be sure to include your name, address, and daytime phone
number; the paper will contact you before printing your
letter; and
- submit the letter on the same day the story appears, if
possible.
[For additional help with writing an effective letter to the
editor, you may turn to the reference guide on the SSI
member page at <[1]http://www.ucsusa.org/ssimembers/index.html >.]
-- MAIN MESSAGE: Given the Bush Administration's consistent
opposition to climate change mitigation, it is especially
imperative at this time that the scientific community and
Dr. Pachauri work together to ensure that the IPCC remains a
strong and credible scientific process.
-- TIMING: Your letter to the editor should reach your paper
within a few days of the publication of the story to
increase the chances of it being published.
-- SPECIAL NOTE: If your paper did not carry the story at
all yet, send an LTE describing the story and emphasizing
that this issue is of great interest to the paper's
subscribers.
*** SUPPORTING MESSAGES ***
-- [Be sure to include a description of your scientific
expertise, your involvement with the IPCC process, or the
importance of the climate issue to your community.]
-- For the past 10 years, the IPCC's science has been the
foundation for sound policymaking on the climate issue. The
IPCC's unique intergovernmental approach to scientific
consensus has worked amazingly well but is now threatened.
-- It is disturbing that the Bush Administration sought and
received advice from the fossil fuel industry on the
leadership of an important scientific body such as the IPCC.
A politicized IPCC threatens the integrity and credibility
of the scientific process.
-- There are fears that it will now be easier for the US to
distance itself from the IPCC process. You may point out
that the US already rejected the Kyoto protocol last year.
-- It is vital that the scientific process for the next
Assessment Report (due out in another five years) not be
compromised so that the IPCC continues to produce sound
science on climate change.
-- The credibility of the IPCC's Third Assessment Report
(TAR) findings were strongly affirmed by the US National
Academy of Sciences (NAS), which published its supportive
report in response to President Bush's request for an
independent assessment on the state of climate science.
*** SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION ***
-- Dr Rajendra K. Pachauri is an Indian engineer and
economist. Pachauri, formerly one of the five vice chairs of
the IPCC, is highly regarded but will be the first non-
atmospheric chemist as chair of the IPCC.
-- For more information on the ExxonMobil memo urging the
Bush Administration to remove Dr. Watson from his position
as IPCC Chair, please see
< [2]http://www.nrdc.org/media/docs/020403.pdf >.
-- For information on the Saudi/Pearlman connection, see the
summary by Jeremy Leggett, author of "The Carbon War", at
< [3]http://www.carbonwar.com/ccchrono.html >.
-- IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was
established in 1988 under the auspices of the United Nations
Environment Programme and the World Meteorological
Organization for the purpose of assessing "the scientific,
technical and socioeconomic information relevant for the
understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change."
To date, the IPCC has issued three comprehensive
assessments. The first assessment report (FAR) was released
in 1990, the second assessment report (SAR) was released in
1996, and the third assessment report (TAR) was released in
2001. These assessments are based on "published and peer
reviewed scientific technical literature"
For more information see < [4]http://www.ipcc.ch >
******************
NOTE: Please send us an email message that tells us what
action you took. If you actually send a letter, please send
us a "blind copy." (A blind copy simply means that you do
not indicate anywhere on your letter that you are sending a
copy to us.) Send to: ssi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx or UCS, 2 Brattle
Square, Cambridge, MA 02xxx xxxx xxxx(attn. Jason Mathers).
CHANGE OF EMAIL ADDRESS: Help us keep you posted! If your
email address will soon change, or if you'd like us to use a
different address, please let us know by sending a message
to ssi@xxxxxxxxx.xxx with your new address. Thanks!
***********
Associated Press
Fri Apr 19, 1:18 PM ET
U.S. scientist voted off international climate panel
By JONATHAN FOWLER, Associated Press Writer
GENEVA - A U.S. scientist was voted off an international
climate panel Friday following what campaigners claimed was
pressure from the oil industry and Washington.
Atmospheric scientist Robert Watson was seeking re-election
as head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
World Meteorological Organization (news - web sites)
spokeswoman Mo Lagarde said Watson was defeated by Indian
challenger Rajendra Pachauri. Some 76 countries supported
Pachauri, while 49 voted for Watson in the secret ballot,
she said.
Seven nations voted for Jose Goldemberg, a Brazilian (news -
web sites) who entered the race this week.
The WMO and the U.N. Environment Program jointly host the
IPCC's offices and organized the Geneva meeting.
Environmental groups have accused the administration of
President George W. Bush (news - web sites) of caving in to
a request from Exxon Mobil that it try to remove Watson, a
leading expert on global warming (news - web sites), because
he had consistently warned governments of the dangers of
climate change.
"The fossil fuel industry and the U.S. government will be
celebrating their success in kicking out Bob Watson, an
experienced scientist who understood that urgent action is
needed to tackle global climate change," said Kate Hampton,
international climate co-ordinator for British-based Friends
of the Earth (news - web sites). "The Bush administration
and its friends would rather shoot the messenger than listen
to the message," Hampton said in a statement.
The Swiss-based Worldwide Fund for Nature said it was
worried by the "apparent politicization" of the IPCC.
"WWF is concerned that oil and gas interests had too much to
say in the removal of Dr. Watson as chairman of what should
be an impartial, scientific body," said Jennifer Morgan,
Director of WWF's Climate Program.
But, Morgan said, the "IPCC is a vibrant group of scientists
and WWF looks forward to working closely with Dr. Pachauri
to protect the integrity of the IPCC and ensure that it
continues to produce sound science on climate change."
The U.S. State Department said earlier this month that it
would support Pachauri, who was the Indian government's
nominee, to become the next chair.
Two weeks ago, the Natural Resources Defense Council, a
Washington, D.C.-based environmental group, said the White
House's Council on Environmental Quality received a memo
from Exxon Mobil in February 2001 that asked, "Can Watson be
replaced now at the request of the U.S.?"
The memo, which the group said it obtained through the
Freedom of Information Act, also recommended that the
administration "restructure the U.S. attendance at upcoming
IPCC meetings to assure none of the Clinton/Gore proponents
are involved in any decisional activities."
U.S. officials were unavailable for comment.
Watson has been an outspoken proponent of the idea that
fossil fuel emissions contribute to rising global
temperatures. He has led the panel since 1996 and is also
the chief scientist of the World Bank (news - web sites).
Pachauri is an engineer and an economist and is the director
of the Tata Energy Research Institute in New Delhi, India.
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 xxx xxxx xxxx
University of East Anglia
Norwich Email p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
NR4 7TJ
UK
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
References
1. http://www.ucsusa.org/ssimembers/index.html
2. http://www.nrdc.org/media/docs/020403.pdf
3. http://www.carbonwar.com/ccchrono.html%A0
4. http://www.ipcc.ch/
Original Filename: 1045082703.txt | Return to the index page | Permalink | Later Emails
From: Mike Hulme <m.hulme@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
To: "Kabat, dr. P." <P.Kabat@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>, "Schellnhuber (E-mail)" <h.j.schellnhuber@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Subject: Re: Letter of Support
Date: Wed Feb 12 15:45:xxx xxxx xxxx
Cc: "Alex Haxeltine (E-mail)" <Alex.Haxeltine@xxxxxxxxx.xxx>
Pavel
I will certainly make sure a letter reaches you for Friday. And Good Luck!
Mike
At 14:07 12/02/03 +0100, Kabat, dr. P. wrote:
Dear Mike, John, Alex:
referring to out tel. conversation yesterday with Alex, hereby our request
for a letter of support/recommendation on behalf of Tyndall for our
national Global Change Initiative programme proposal called
"Climate changes the spatial planning", ("Climate for Spatial Planning
Spatial Planning for Climate); unofficially known to you I guess as as
"Netherlands Tyndall-like initiative...)
After we have successfully passed the first round of the selection last
year with the Dutch Government, we are know in final stages of submitting
the final proposal/business plan (deadline 17/2/03 - next Monday).
The proposed programme has a total budget of 100 million Euro, of which 49
million is requested from the Government, rest contribution of public and
private institutions. As a part of this programme we are aiming to set up
Netherlands Centre of Excellence (partly virtual) institute, modelled after
Tyndall. Leading parties in this effort are all well known to you:
Wageningen (kabat)
VU Amsterdam (vellinga)
RIVM (metz)
KNMI (Komen)
ICIS (Rotmans)
ECN (Bruggink)
plus another almost 50 parties.
Could you pls send us a short letter of support, in which you indicate the
importance of this initiative for advancing this type global change science,
European dimension, UK - NL collaboration, etc, etc?
We need to receive this by Friday, so send also by fax pls (apologies for
the rush). Letter is to be addressed as follows:
Prof. Dr Pavel Kabat
Science Director
Netherlands National Research Initiative "Climate changes the spatial
planning", (ICES KIS 3)
Postal address: PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen
Visiting address: Lawickse Allee 11, IAC building, room 156
Voice xxx xxxx xxxx/74713 (office), xxx xxxx xxxx(mobile), xxx xxxx xxxx
(home);
Fax: xxx xxxx xxxx
I attach 3 documents as background of our proposal
Many thanks for your kind help!
Pavel, Pier en colleagues
<<BPDraft2.3NoFigures.doc>> <<OrganisatieSchema.doc>> <<Overview budget
131.xls>>